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Given data that has been fit to a loess model, can you make reliable decisions on future trades given a good past fit? Has anyone here done so and can give an example of their use case?

I am yet to decide what data set to use.

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Sounds like you have a hammer and are searching for a nail. The data should inform the model choice. It's a mistake to choose a model and then search for data to apply it to, because "all models are wrong". – Joshua Ulrich Jul 15 '14 at 16:43

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I've been testing trading systems with lowess for a long time and have yet to find something that works. Lowess is a adaptive, so it will change with the addition of future bars ( it is the best fit taking into account past and future data points). If you plot a lowess on a chart, it is a perfect fit...not so much in real time.

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