Is there some sort of metric or formula for bull/long strength in a market based on % of shorts/longs on margin, and perhaps even the size of that leverage?
I ask because I participate in BTC (which is a really basic and undeveloped market, so there are much fewer moving parts), and think I see a negative correlation between swap # and bullishness.
My intuition is the following: if you’re long on margin, gains are necessary to cover interest, stable is a loss, and a loss is a potentially a margin call. I believe I’ve witnessed that it’s a lot easier for short players to cut long positions and reverse bullish trends by forcing calls, whereas the shorts will quickly get called if swap # is low.
Then i ran into this today: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=667105.0 Obviously it could be noise, but it seems to back the rationale.
Is there some sort of quantitative formula that uses theta to measure this?