Can a mortgage loan be treated like a bond and its duration calculated using the bond duration formula? More precisely, can I calculate the loan portfolio duration for duration gap analysis, with coupon payment instead of annuity payments, loan value instead of bond value, loan rate in place of yield, and using the bond duration formula?
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You don't say which duration, but it's generally okay to use effective duration: $$ duration (eff) = \frac{-1}{P(r)}*\frac{Price(r+b) - Price(r-b)}{2*b} $$ where $r$ = rate and $b$ = yield shock. Although, to address Brian's point, the mortgage contains an embedded call option that creates negative convexity, so the three re-pricings, $P(r)$, $P(r+b)$, $P(r-b)$, need to reflect prepayment assumptions. This cannot be done analytically, to my knowledge (I am aware of no analytical duration with "extra terms" for the prepayment risk). Rather, the effects of prepayment are numerically figured into the re-pricings (typically you increase the PSA a bit at the lower yield). So, you do have numerical inputs into the "analytical" effective duration. Technically, the effective duration is okay (and has the same role as modified duration: to give a first-order/linear approximation of the price change) because, if you re-price the bond to include varying prepayment rates, then you are just computing the slope (rise/run) of the tangent to the P/Y curve. It is helpful to see how the above formula is merely a slope formula, such that in the case of effective duration applied to negative convexity, it's the slope of a secant line that approximates the tangent. Reference: Veronesi, Fixed Income Securities, in FRM |
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