How to simulate cointegrated prices

Question

Is there any simple way to simulate cointegrated prices?

Answer 1

Consider a $T \times N$ matrix of potentially cointegrating prices $P$. Define $Y_{t}\equiv ln\left(P_{t}\right)$. In the multivariate framework, there are two basic methods to estimate the cointegrating relationships. The first is an error correction framework of the form $$\Delta Y_{t} = \beta_{0}+\beta_{1}\Delta Y_{t-1}+\beta_{2}Y_{t-1}+\varepsilon_{t}$$ that is most convenient when attempting to perform statistical tests on the coefficients. The alternate approach is a vector autoregressive model of the form $$Y_{t} = \beta_{0}+\beta_{1}Y_{t-1}+\varepsilon_{t}.$$ For the purposes of simulation, they are effectively equivalent. One must estimate $\beta_{0}$ and $\beta_{1}$ and solve for $\varepsilon_{t}$. There are many potential distribution assumptions that one could make about the behavior of $\varepsilon_{t}$, but a simple one would be that it follows a multivariate normal distribution with a mean of zero and a covariance matrix equal to the sample covariance matrix. More complicated assumptions might be that the variances and correlations are time-varying or that there are fat tails. For financial time series, these may be important to consider.

To simulate $\widetilde{Y}_{t+1}$, you thus obtain $\widetilde{\varepsilon}_{t+1}$ by whatever means are appropriate and calculate $$\widetilde{Y}_{t+1} = \beta_{0}+\beta_{1}Y_{t}+\widetilde{\varepsilon}_{t+1}$$

For $i>1$, one would need to be careful to incorporate the simulated values from the previous period so that $$\widetilde{Y}_{t+i} = \beta_{0}+\beta_{1}\widetilde{Y}_{t+i-1}+\widetilde{\varepsilon}_{t+i}$$ in order to ensure the autoregressive features in each simulated path.

After calculating the simulated values of $\widetilde{Y}_{t+i}$, one would want to convert them back to prices by calculating $\widetilde{P}_{t+i}\equiv \mathrm{exp}\left(\widetilde{Y}_{t+i}\right)$.

Answer 2

One way to construct cointegrated timeseries it to use the error-correction representation (see Engle, Granger 1987 for details of the equivalence).

To generate two timeseries that are cointegrated, start with your cointegrating vector $(\alpha_1, \alpha_2)$ so that you want $\alpha_1x_t + \alpha_2y_t$ to be stationary; choose initial values $x_0, y_0$ and a parameter $\gamma\in (0,1)$ that controls how strongly cointegrated the series are. Then generate each timestep as:

$x_{t+1} = x_t - \gamma (x_t + (\alpha_2/\alpha_1)y_t) + \epsilon_{1t}$

$y_{t+1} = y_t - \gamma (y_t + (\alpha_1/\alpha_2)x_t) + \epsilon_{2t}$

For price series, it's generally the cumulative returns that you want to be cointegrated. To generate prices, as John mentioned in his comment above, follow the above procedure for log-prices, then exponentiate.