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I'm attempting to model asset performance to Bitcoin revenue, which is a driving force in the Bitcoin community.

Question

Is there any model, or research being done that tracks "hashes per second" (MHz) to BTC earned over time?

If no prior work exists, what is the best way for me to model:

  • Various non-linear interdependencies

  • The range of possible outcomes

  • The likelihood of the particular outcome

I'm also aware of certain market forces that will occur in the near future (technology changes, valuation adjustments, etc) that I'd like to include.

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If you want to know how many BTC you'll earn per day with, say, 100MH/s, then I'm pretty sure there is a formula that gives you the expected (averaged) figure in the Bitcoin.SE site. There is also information about variation, though generally there hasn't been a need to analyse that in detail (mining pools solve that problem). Let me know if that's what you're after, and I'll have a look for it if it is. –  Highly Irregular Sep 19 '12 at 3:54
    
@HighlyIrregular It's pretty easy to determine BTC for a given point in time, however I'm looking for historic data so I can model future performance. For example two major changes are coming: For starters payouts will decrease by 50% and secondly compute power/cost will soon become more efficient with Butterfly Labs ASIC technology. My goal is to model the impact of these changes –  makerofthings7 Sep 19 '12 at 4:07
    
You're certainly taking on a difficult task, given the lack of freely available information on Bitcoin (eg what hardware is being used, who's doing the mining, how much speculation is affecting the market). –  Highly Irregular Sep 19 '12 at 4:22
    
I suspect there are already large amounts of ASIC hardware coming online, given the spike in hashpower since July. Anyway, as this graph shows (bitcoin.sipa.be) network hashpower closely corresponds to difficulty, so you could use historic data for either of those values for your modelling. Both data sets are available in the blockchain, which is publically available. Not sure where else you might get it in a more useful format, but it would be appropriate to ask that question on Bitcoin.SE if it hasn't been asked already. –  Highly Irregular Sep 19 '12 at 4:23
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