We are developing an algorithm that models twitter users and groups of words that may indicate real world events.
One application is modelling elections, i.e which party is likely going to win. Another application is modelling the stock market. In addition, we are also interested in how the tweets, elections and stock markets correlate with each other.
With regard to stock market, what would be sensible indicators to model? One obvious metric would be the index price movement. Another we were thinking about is volume of trade and perhaps volatility. Anyway, not really sure.
What I'm looking for is a list if indicators that would be sensible to model. What I have so far:
- Index price
- Specific stock prices
- Price differences
- Expected future returns
Any additions that would make sense?