Take the 2-minute tour ×
Quantitative Finance Stack Exchange is a question and answer site for finance professionals and academics. It's 100% free, no registration required.

Say for example I have the following company in some specialized industry:

A - Company that is about to be listed in Exchange 1, i.e., no price history

B - Company that produce similar products as Company A, listed on Exchange 1 as well, however B has very thin volume and price could stay the same for weeks.

C - Similar to company A but listed on Exchange 2, again, thin trading volume

D - Similar to company B but listed on Exchange 2, also thin trading volume

For companies B, C and D, I have their historical EOD price for the past two years.

Exchange 1 and 2 are listed in different continents and there is very little correlation between the two, also, there is no index for this industrial sector. (However the price between company C&D and A&B should be correlated). Also, we can not assume the price time series is non-stationary as the products those company produce could be seasonal in nature.

I would like to figure out the "correct" market price for Company A before it is listed, based on the information above. And my results so far shows that each of the price time series that I have has a different ARIMA model.

Therefore, my question is how can I tackle these price data to start my analysis? Bearing in mind that those are all the data I have and can get.

share|improve this question
I would strongly discourage you to estimate the first trading price of A as function of current (and even historical time series) of comparable companies. The opening trading price is best estimated from A's own fundamentals as well as subscription price, support period price bands, which banks underwrote the stock, how much the company intents to float, public interest, .... You are in for a tough exercise with tons of margin for error if you attempt to price the trading range based on where comparables trade(d) –  Matt Wolf Sep 16 '13 at 2:10
@MattWolf I agree, however that is exactly the point. Initially when the stock start to get traded, the price is somewhat "mis-priced" and assuming that it will eventually revert to the theoretical mean, that would represent a trading opportunity. –  AZhu Sep 16 '13 at 2:38
what makes you think it is initially mispriced? And towards which theoretical mean, given there is no reference level to gravitate towards? As said, using other asset's time series is possibly one of the worst proxies you could pick. But that is just my 2 cents without exhaustive research on the topic. Why don't you test on your theory on past IPOs? –  Matt Wolf Sep 16 '13 at 2:46
@MattWolf Just like what you have mentioned, this is something I do not know and I am trying to find out, the industry is pretty unique in a way that it is small and the data is limited, hence if you compare this to say the IPO of FB, where there are already tonnes of data for similar companies, it won't be the same. –  AZhu Sep 16 '13 at 10:57

Your Answer


By posting your answer, you agree to the privacy policy and terms of service.

Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.