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19
votes
2answers
2k views

How much data is needed to validate a short-horizon trading strategy?

Suppose one has an idea for a short-horizon trading strategy, which we will define as having an average holding period of under 1 week and a required latency between signal calculation and execution ...
19
votes
1answer
2k views

How do different methods and techniques used in pairs trading compare?

I was going through the paper of Avellaneda (2008) on stat arb and I found it interesting that he uses asset returns vs. their respective ETFs to compute the s-score. I am wondering if anyone has ...
18
votes
3answers
821 views

How can an ETF outperform its benchmark index?

Deutsche Bank’s ETF platform, db X-trackers, provides a rather remarkable ETF tracking Euro Stoxx 50 (which is the most widely used regional blue-chip index in Europe). What makes it remarkable is ...
13
votes
2answers
830 views

Why isn't the Nelson-Siegel model arbitrage-free?

Assume $X_t$ is a multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, i.e. $$dX_t=\sigma dB_t-AX_tdt$$ and the spot interest rate evolves by the following equation: $$r_t=a+b\cdot X_t.$$ After solving for $X_t$ ...
11
votes
4answers
5k views

Is statistical arbitrage on FX possible?

Do you know of any papers which consider pairs trading (or statistical arbitrage) on foreign exchange? I couldn't find any. I asked this question on several forums and got no reply. Thus I guess this ...
9
votes
5answers
1k views

When to shut down a trend following strategy?

Suppose I have trend following strategy(on close to close data) that is not getting acceptable returns for some time. When should I start thinking about shutting it down?
8
votes
1answer
1k views

What is the average Sharpe ratio of volatility arbitrage funds?

Where can I get data on performance metrics for volatility arbitrage funds? I am trying to compare the Sharpe ratio of my strategy to those of the major players.
7
votes
2answers
2k views

SPX options vs VIX futures trading

Forward volatility implied by SPX options, and that of VIX futures get out of line. If there existed VIX SQUARED futures they could easily be replicated (and arbitraged) with a strip of SPX options. ...
7
votes
3answers
3k views

Why would a 6M LIBOR rate be significantly above 3M LIBOR, ED futures and swap rates?

Just was just looking at the various interest rates and noticed this: ...
7
votes
1answer
400 views

calculating arbitrage-free ranges based off outright, spread, and fly prices

This may be more applied math rather than finance focused, but I'm curious about using linear algebra techniques for generating possible arbitrage signals among outright instruments and spreads/flies ...
5
votes
1answer
518 views

Profiting from price discrepancies between stock exchanges

Here is an interesting video by Nanex: http://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=rB5jJuMP84E Perhaps some of you have already seen something similar. It is an animation of the order routing. It shows 1/2 ...
5
votes
1answer
141 views

Arbitrage with freshly issued bonds

I recently heard someone mention an arbitrage strategy involving selling freshly issued bonds and buying the "old batch" as it has shown that the liquidity in the fresh batch motivates/drives up these ...
5
votes
2answers
363 views

A few questions about signs of the Greek letters

Rho is the partial derivative of the value of call option, $C$, w.r.t the riskfree interest rate $r$: $$\rho \equiv \frac{\partial C}{\partial r}$$ In the standard B-S formula this term is positive, ...
5
votes
1answer
1k views

Implied dividend estimation

I am looking at two different ways of estimating the expected / implied dividends from market data. 1. Dividend futures I know that this asset class is not very liquid and might not be ...
5
votes
1answer
508 views

USDCAD options vs CADUSD options arbitrage?

I think I've found an arbitrage opportunity. Right now, I can do this (first via CME, second via SAXO) : BUY CADUSD AMERICAN PUT 10200 STRIKE EXPIRING 16 MAR 2011 FOR 53 pips USD SELL USDCAD ...
4
votes
2answers
391 views

What does put-call parity imply about option premiums?

We know that $$C-P = PV(F_{0,T}-K)$$ When we create a synthetic forward, we buy call and sell a put at the same strike price $K$. When we buy the call why do we assume the premium is positive? When ...
4
votes
3answers
382 views

Volatility arbitrage - how is the profit extracted?

Is there any paper that describes in detail how the profit is extracted in directional volatility bet (vol arb)? I mean in the case that I bet the realized volatility will be lower than currently ...
4
votes
1answer
1k views

Call option arbitrage opportunity

I am having trouble wrapping my head around some text provided to us by our lecturer (unfortunately he is currently unavailable). If we let $c$ be the price of a European call option, $S_0$ the ...
4
votes
3answers
2k views

Arbitraging OANDA continuous rollover vs other brokers' discrete rollover

Most brokers compute rollover once a day (2200 GMT), but OANDA calculates it continuously. I thought I'd cleverly found an arbitrage opportunity, but it turns out OANDA knows about this and ...
4
votes
1answer
331 views

Sufficient conditions for no static arbitrage

In Carr and Madan (2005), the authors give sufficient conditions for a set of call prices to arise as integrals of a risk-neutral probability distribution (See Breeden and Litzenberger (1978)), and ...
4
votes
2answers
72 views

How does this follow from the separating hyperplane theorem?

This is from Pliskas book in mathematical finance. I do not know what was best to write the question so I included the pages from the book. He has not written what form of the separating hyperplane ...
4
votes
2answers
96 views

law of one price, understanding

I am reading about mathematical finance, and I was tipsed to ask the quesiton on this site. It is about the "law of one price". Just first I'll make precise the model my book uses: I have a single ...
4
votes
1answer
520 views

What research is available on the performance of convertible bond arbitrage models?

The basic principles of convertible bond arbitrage have been clear at least since Thorp and Kassouf (1967). For those who are not familiar, the arbitrage entails purchasing a convertible bond and ...
3
votes
1answer
136 views

Arbitragefree Pricing: Q vs. P

I read that the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing states, that a market is arbitrage-free if and only if there exists an equivalent martingale measure Q, under which the discounted asset price ...
3
votes
1answer
89 views

Pricing of a simple contingent claim

Earlier I had the question (5.11 Tomas Bjork): $$ \frac{\partial F}{\partial t}+\frac{1}{2}x^2\frac{\partial^2 F}{\partial t^2}+x = 0 $$ $$ F(T,x) = ln(x^2) $$ And solve it using Feynman-Kac. The ...
3
votes
1answer
912 views

Understanding Passive Rebate Arbitrage

I was reading a BMO paper which offered the following example of passive rebate arbitrage: "For example, if BBD.b is trading at $4.71 - ...
3
votes
0answers
50 views

FTAP in the model independent case, paper by Schachermayer

I have a question about the following paper by Beatrice Acciaio, Mathias Beiglböck, Friedrich Penkner, Walter Schachermayer. At the very beginning of the paper, on page 3, there are two definitions ...
3
votes
0answers
569 views

Calculating most profitable arbitrage orders on multiple market with fixed and variable fees

If I have multiple markets (let's say 5, but the solution should be generic) trading the same stock/commodity/whatever, and the markets differ in both variable fees (which are in % of the trade order) ...
3
votes
0answers
133 views

Arbitrage free price of a derivative when the price is collected over the lifetime of the derivative

Let $X_t$ be an american style financial derivative with random exercise time $T$ where $t$ and $T$ belongs to some finite set $A$. Buying this derivative requires the buyer to pay $p_t$ up to time ...
2
votes
2answers
771 views

Usefulness of simultaneously buying triangular and multiple arbitrages on the Forex

I have a limited financial background but I'm trying to figure out the usefulness of buying size-n arbitrages (n > 3), and I wonder the kind of risks - if any - associated with such a strategy. Say ...
2
votes
2answers
497 views

.NET statistical packages recommendation

What open source or commercial .NET statistical package would you guys recommend? I am doing statistical arbitrage in options. The functions I need mainly are regressions, optimizations..etc. It would ...
2
votes
2answers
444 views

Index arbitrage with Options when not all underlyings have options listed?

One arbitrage strategy involves looking at the price of the Index Futures price compared with the prices of the options contracts for the underlyings. My question is, can this arbitrage strategy ...
2
votes
3answers
74 views

Inconsistent Definition of Arbitrage in Bjork?

In Tomas Bjork's Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time (or here), $\exists$ what seems to be 2 inconsistent definitions of arbitrage: The first definition is for the single period Binomial model The ...
2
votes
1answer
280 views

Where are creation units baskets for ETFs published?

Where can the specification of a creation unit basket for an ETF be found? This information is needed for calculating the arbitrage possible between the ETF instrument itself and the creation unit ...
2
votes
1answer
146 views

interest rate in cost of carry

What interest rates are used in practice in a stock index / futures arbitrage? I've seen cases, when the assumed rate is 3 months LIBOR, but does it mean, that everyone who does the arbitrage can ...
2
votes
1answer
633 views

Multiple (linear) regression

I am looking for some inputs on a pair trading strategy that I am trying to improve with some semi-fundamental input. The basic idea is to use multiple linear regression to estimate the price of a ...
2
votes
1answer
210 views

How Much Capital is Needed to Start an Arbitrage Strategy?

I'm trying to experiment with a simulated simple arbitrage strategy. I'm not doing this to actually invest, I'm just curious if the market is inefficient enough for this to be feasible. Every ...
2
votes
1answer
195 views

How often do ETF creation units baskets change?

Large institutions can swap baskets of underlying securities for ETF shares that can then be traded on an exchange as part of arbitrage between the price of the basket and the ETF share price. These ...
2
votes
0answers
72 views

Why is the LIBOR-market model free of arbitrage?

Recently I have been reading a lot on the market models. One thing that keeps escaping me - why is the Libor-market model (LMM) assumed to e free of aritrage in continuous time ? To me this means ...
1
vote
2answers
162 views

M&A hedging an equity portfolio against an index

Quick Note This question was already posted under the userID user8170. Reason being I could not access my account. Now I am able to login to my account I am reposting the question here and will ...
1
vote
2answers
96 views

Pricing Principle 1

In Tomas Björk's Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time (or here), $\exists$ this Pricing Principle. Is the one in red supposed to be the proof of the Pricing Principle 1? Or merely an intuitive ...
1
vote
2answers
95 views

Harnessing small correlations for reliable profit

It is said that Edward O. Thorp was able to harness small correlations for reliable financial gain. I've seen some strategies based on strong correlations which did not seem particularly reliable. ...
1
vote
1answer
87 views

Simple pricing example confusion

This it taken from "Heard on the Street", Section B. Consider a market with $0$ risk-free rate, no transactions costs etc. The IBM stock costs \$75 and does not pay dividends. Design a security ...
1
vote
1answer
174 views

Derivation of the Nelson-Siegel model and proof of arbitrage

1. I am looking for a derivation of the Nelson-Siegel model $y(m)=a+b\left( \frac{1-e^{-\lambda m}}{\lambda m}\right)+c\left( \frac{1-e^{-\lambda m}}{\lambda m} -e^{-\lambda m} \right)$ It is ...
1
vote
1answer
152 views

help me compare methods to compute one instrument price from another instrument price

Assume we have two instruments A and B. Also time is increasing from 1 to n. Let's say that ...
1
vote
1answer
61 views

ADR vs Foriegn Stock Price Arbitraguers

So I am sure you all know about the whole Argentina default that has been in the papers lately, no need to delve into it. This so called "technical" default has lead some interesting investment ...
1
vote
3answers
263 views

Is this arbitrage?

Assume the stockprice as in the Black-Scholes model (Geometric Brownian Motion): $$S_t=S_0e^{(\mu-\sigma^2/2)\cdot t+\sigma W_t}$$ Wouldn't there be an immediate arbitrage opportunity, to just buy ...
1
vote
2answers
69 views

Non-Negativity of up-factor and down-factor in Binomial No-Arbitrage Pricing Model

Consider a stock which is trading at $S_0$ at time $t=0$ and is expected to be trading at price $uS_0$ or $dS_0$ at time t=1 where $u$ and $d$ are up-factor and down-factor. The theory says that to ...
1
vote
3answers
83 views

Arbitrage free implies complete market?

In Tomas Björk's Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time (or here), $\exists$ this proposition It seems that to show that the model is complete, we must show that the claims are reachable. That is, we ...
1
vote
1answer
67 views

Prove that the binomial algorithm implies the arbitrage free price at t=0 of a T-claim

In Tomas Bjork's Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time (or here), $\exists$ these propositions How does the first formula follow from from the algorithm? I get that $\Pi(0;X) = V_0(0)$, but I don't ...