The process of evaluating a strategy, theory, or model by applying it to historical data.

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28 views

What to expect when switching from backtesting to live trading?

I am back-testing my model using the closing price of 5 minute candle-bars. I am trading S&P 100 stocks. I simulate executions with the assumption I can get them 2 ticks away from the closing ...
2
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1answer
43 views

Up and Down days in GBPUSD and a Filter

I want to study if the odds of an up or down day in a forex pairs is 50-50. I just count the total number of up and down days in X years and compare it with the total days. The results are very ...
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0answers
21 views

R quantstrat backtest with dollar based position sizing

I am attempting to tweak a quantstrat based backtest but have run into an issue. The maxPos limits are share based, and I would rather use a fixed dollar amount instead. So I've tried generating a ...
11
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1answer
196 views

What mathematical models did Harry Markopolos run to prove that Bernie Madoff 1% a month gain was a Ponzi scheme?

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-man-who-figured-out-madoffs-scheme-27-02-2009/ Asked how long it took him to figure out something was wrong, Markopolos said, "It took me five minutes to know ...
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0answers
11 views

optimal look back period for cointegration analysis on daily prices

I'm running some cointegration tests on 2 stock pairs and was wondering, generally speaking, what would be the optimal look back period to test considering I am using daily prices and the average ...
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1answer
73 views

What is the logic behind this backtesting code in R

I am new to R and I have found this simple backtesting code and can you explain me what is happening here. ...
4
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1answer
159 views

Getting ETF data from google finance

I hope this is on-topic. I want to set-up a set of investment rules and back-test it on a mix of asset-classes. Thus I thought that using ETFs for the back-test would be a good idea (time series could ...
3
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0answers
102 views

How to optimize return in a moving average crossover algorithm

Moving average crossover strategy is a widely used strategy in algo trading. Is there a way to optimize return in a moving average crossover stratergy. I have used this site to backtest MA crossover ...
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1answer
31 views

Monthly Return Net of Fees [closed]

How can I calculate the monthly return net of fees if the fee is annual?For example, if every year there is a 20% incentive fee, is there a formula to adjust the return of each month to compensate for ...
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1answer
40 views

importing columns of returns data into python from excel/csv [closed]

I'm fairly new to the quant finance space, and I was hoping to get some guidance. Say I have a csv/excel file with columns of daily returns data for various asset classes or securities (one column per ...
3
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1answer
65 views

Methodology for handling short american options in a back test

Given that an American option can be exercised at any time, how does one handle algorithmically shorting an American option in a back test? I am not sure what the best practice is to simulate the ...
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1answer
64 views

Limits on Short selling

When back testing an algorithm that relies upon short selling certain stocks, how to limit the short selling so that the back-test results still remain reliable? What kind of controls are generally ...
3
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1answer
104 views

Question about historical volatility ranking

I have seen this strategy example, which uses garch in a regime switching context: https://systematicinvestor.wordpress.com/2012/01/06/trading-using-garch-volatility-forecast/ The author classifies ...
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162 views

Here is an approach for measuring Data Snooping; is it new?

I came up with an approach for measuring data snooping, or overfitting. My question is whether this approach was published and expanded-on already, or is it new? My approach relies on the observation ...
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1answer
65 views

Daily or weekly data?

I am trying to test a strategy but do not know if I should use daily or weekly data? I have tried researching this & have found that daily data will bring " too much " noise compared to lower ...
3
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1answer
186 views

Backtesting on historical option data

I have downloaded some daily historical option data for a timespan of 10 years and want to perform trading backtests with them. Data are European index options, on ODAX. My question is about realistic ...
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1answer
104 views

Simulating Stock's close, high and low prices

I am testing a model in which I need to simulate closing, high and low prices (i.e. 3 dimensions of prices) of any given stock. Using the simple Geometric Brownion Motion equation I can easily ...
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0answers
108 views

Are there any software libraries for backtesting FX algorithms against tick data?

I've read question, however it doesn't appear as if any of those libraries work for FX data. A Google search for python forex backtesting turns up this project, ...
3
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1answer
812 views

Learn backtesting using MATLAB

What are some good ressources (books, articles, ...) to learn backtesting of investment strategies using MATLAB ? It can be strategies related to fixed-income, equities, derivatives, ... whatever. ...
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1answer
83 views

Backtesting software with custom data input

I was considering to develop a custom backtesting platform for myself. However, I see that it would require some significant time and effort, and the result might not be as initially expected. So I ...
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0answers
55 views

How to compare market values with model values after calibration?

After calibration the G2++ model for interest (with swaption volatilities), I want to statistically test the quality of the calibration by comparing market to model values. What is the best way to ...
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0answers
67 views

Adjusting for your own orders in future backtests

I was asked this question in an interview and despite thinking about it for a while, I haven't been able to come up with a good answer. Suppose you have a strategy you are running where at certain ...
3
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1answer
153 views

Overlapping Value-at-Risk Backtest Data an Issue?

My understanding of VaR model back testing is thus: ~~ t: Calculate daily VaR using look back data over n past days t+1: Compare daily return against VaR, record breach if one occurred, repeat ...
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1answer
100 views

Calculation of Returns and Risk Metrics for L/S Portfolio

I am trying to build a test for a long/short portfolio. I am aiming for market neutral and have put together a long portfolio as well as a short portfolio (see below). However, I am not sure if I am ...
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2answers
153 views

Long/Short Backtesting Set up

I am going to be backtesting a Long/Short equity strategy and need some guidance on how best to deal with the short book. I was thinking that for each portfolio I would go long 50 equities and go ...
3
votes
1answer
95 views

How to compute daily compounded backtest returns closer to real-world results?

I often run quick tests of trading strategies in my analytics suites by: multiplying a vector of signal (lagged, {-1,0,1}) with a time series of daily percentage returns doing a cumulative product ...
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204 views

How to calculate returns of backtested strategy?

Lets say I have some strategy (long/short) backtested for certain period. Strategy has entries/exits only at the end of the day and may have overnight positions hold. Now I would like to compare ...
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1answer
248 views

Analog - Pattern Recognition model using KNN

I'm building a pattern recognition model for my master thesis. The idea is to build a framework with some Macro variables (long/short term rates; rates differential; equity; fx; vix) in order to find ...
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1answer
168 views

What data should be used for regression-based model backtesting?

I ran regressions using historical valuation data and now want to backtest the models I came up with. Are there any issues with using the same historical data set for the backtest that I need to be ...
2
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2answers
290 views

How to select optimal betting strategy from backtest?

I have written a model for predicting the winner of UFC fights. My model calculates the probability of each fighter to win a given match. I have back tested the model and found it to be very ...
4
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2answers
142 views

Back-testing Value at Risk with a WML investment strategy

I'm currently taking a course in Financial Econometrics and there is a question in the lecture notes regarding back-testing of VaR which I'm have difficulty with. First of all the procedure for ...
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1answer
467 views

How to fully replicate ADX + DI Indicators in Excel? [closed]

For black box testing, I was hoping that I could replicate the ADX + DI+ and DI- indicators that are provided in trading platforms such as ThinkOrSwim, ScottradeElite etc. However, I noticed that ...
4
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0answers
161 views

What is the most convenient data structure for backtesting a model of futures options prices?

I have an empirical model for the dynamics of futures prices in a particular market that I have implemented using a long series of the front five contracts. (I account for the roll in my model.) I ...
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2answers
539 views

Backtesting with Simulated Historical Data?

The trading strategies that are going to backtest well are the ones that pick the winners from the past. For example, if a trading strategy simply bought apple stock it would backtest extremely well. ...
3
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1answer
305 views

How to find optimal look back in quant trading models

I'm in the process of building a quantitative trading model, I want to improve on the way in which I decide upon a look back length for the indicators. I understand the different pros/cons for very ...
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3answers
539 views

Handling Missing values in stocks returns when estimating the co variance matrix

What is the best way to handle missing values when stocks did not exist for the entire historical period?.
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1answer
185 views

Plot Evolution of portfolio weights over time in R [closed]

Is there any function for plotting the evolution of portfolio weights over time in r?. I have a matrix of portfolio weights from an equal weighting strategy at rebalancing times and want to plot ...
2
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1answer
639 views

Backtesting with fundamentals

Recently I've read some books about quantative approach to fundamental investing: - What works on Wall Street - James O'Shaughnessy - Quantitative Value - Wesley Gray, Tobias Carlisle - Quantitative ...
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2answers
297 views

Backtesting Period

Views on timeframes for backtesting vary considerably. Curious on what timeframe/trade size leads to a statistically significant result. For example, what backtest period is reasonable for a system ...
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2answers
154 views

Sharpe Ratio and time spent in loss

Is it possible to express, given an annualized Sharpe Ratio value, what is an expected maximum/average time spent in a draw-down or something in this manner? E.g. with SR of 10, you'd expect to spend ...
0
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1answer
185 views

How to backtest the VaR model?

I have a sorted historical P&L vector of 250 days and say, I want to calculate the 90% VaR on this distribution. I will look for the 225 element (90% * 250 = 225) and this will be my Value at ...
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2answers
465 views

Machine Learning on matlab 2010

I am trying to develop a trading model. It uses certain technical and fundamental features and the model learns from the past. I have a 3-class output - bullish, neutral and bearish. On trying neural ...
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3answers
796 views

Expected Shortfall (CVaR) Backtesting

I am writing my thesis on VaR and ES risk measurements and have encountered some issues with how to best test the accuracy of ES estimates. My understanding of the topic is that backtesting ES ...
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0answers
252 views

Comparing Backtests of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall

My goal is to test if ES (CVaR) empirically is a better risk measure than VaR for a set of given variables (assumed underlying distribution, confidence level, sample size) for different asset classes. ...
0
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1answer
444 views

backtesting with open, close, high and low

I am quite notice at the business of backtesting for an automated strategy. I was wondering, can I/should I use High and Low for this purpose? On one hand, the algorithm will see these prices, but on ...
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1answer
261 views

adjusted close prices on SP500

When I look at the adjusted close prices of SP500, for example, I notice that the numbers are always significantly below the actual closing. In the explanation of what adjusted prices are, one gets ...
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1answer
93 views

How do I take an unbiased, sector neutral sample from a stock index?

I am looking to take a cross sector subset of a larger stock index universe. What steps to I take to assure that sector representation is as equal as possible to help smooth out my variance(while ...
6
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0answers
567 views

Testing Valuation, Size and Momentum (proprietary factors) from 1988-2013: No evidence of driving cross-sectional returns

I am currently testing whether three proprietary factors - Valuation, Size and Momentum - explain cross-sectional returns. A sample of 3000 securities was tested using Fama-MacBeth two-pass ...
3
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1answer
234 views

How to design back-testing (validation) for such modified Vasicek model?

Consider a classical Black Scholes model , $$\frac{dS}{S} = \mu dt + \sigma dW$$ , where $dW$ is a Brownian motion, that $W(t_1) - W(t_0) \sim N(0, t_1 - t_0)$. The back-testing strategy is ...
4
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3answers
585 views

Backtesting - can you buy/sell at open and closing prices?

In backtesting (nasdaq stocks), I make the assumption that I have the ability buy/sell each day at the opening and closing prices. Is this realistic?