The process of evaluating a strategy, theory, or model by applying it to historical data.

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3
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1answer
96 views

How to find optimal look back in quant trading models

I'm in the process of building a quantitative trading model, I want to improve on the way in which I decide upon a look back length for the indicators. I understand the different pros/cons for very ...
1
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3answers
143 views

Handling Missing values in stocks returns when estimating the co variance matrix

What is the best way to handle missing values when stocks did not exist for the entire historical period?.
0
votes
1answer
253 views

Volatility of a rolling window strategy

What methods can be applied to determine the volatility of strategy using a rolling window? Using normal standard deviation would bias the results as the returns will be highly correlated. Although, ...
1
vote
1answer
59 views

Plot Evolution of portfolio weights over time in R [closed]

Is there any function for plotting the evolution of portfolio weights over time in r?. I have a matrix of portfolio weights from an equal weighting strategy at rebalancing times and want to plot ...
30
votes
5answers
2k views

What are the key risks to the quantitative strategy development process?

Prompted in part by this question on data snooping, I would be interested to know: What are the key risks that should be considered when developing a quantitative strategy based on: (a) historical ...
11
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3answers
3k views

Papers about backtesting option trading strategies

I am looking for all kinds of research concerning option trading strategies. With that I mean papers that publish results on different option trading strategies properly backtested with real-world ...
11
votes
3answers
558 views

What benchmark/index to use for backtesting a portfolio of stock options?

What benchmark should I use for backtesting a model for when I should buy an option of a particular stock? For equities, one could say their portfolio outperformed the S&P 500. I would like to ...
2
votes
2answers
121 views

Backtesting Period

Views on timeframes for backtesting vary considerably. Curious on what timeframe/trade size leads to a statistically significant result. For example, what backtest period is reasonable for a system ...
0
votes
0answers
217 views

Backtesting with fundamentals

Recently I've read some books about quantative approach to fundamental investing: - What works on Wall Street - James O'Shaughnessy - Quantitative Value - Wesley Gray, Tobias Carlisle - Quantitative ...
27
votes
7answers
5k views

What broker/feed/APIsetup allows for recording the most accurate data (cheaply)?

I'm currently using IB's Java API and getting feeds through them. However the real-time feed is updated only every 250ms and the historical feed only every second. I'm primarily looking for ES data ...
12
votes
4answers
5k views

Are there any good tools for back testing options strategies?

There are all kinds of tools for backtesting linear instruments (like stocks or stock indices). It is a completely different story when it comes to option strategies. Most of the tools used are ...
0
votes
2answers
114 views

Sharpe Ratio and time spent in loss

Is it possible to express, given an annualized Sharpe Ratio value, what is an expected maximum/average time spent in a draw-down or something in this manner? E.g. with SR of 10, you'd expect to spend ...
0
votes
1answer
76 views

How to backtest the VaR model?

I have a sorted historical P&L vector of 250 days and say, I want to calculate the 90% VaR on this distribution. I will look for the 225 element (90% * 250 = 225) and this will be my Value at ...
3
votes
1answer
423 views

Expected Shortfall (CVaR) Backtesting

I am writing my thesis on VaR and ES risk measurements and have encountered some issues with how to best test the accuracy of ES estimates. My understanding of the topic is that backtesting ES ...
3
votes
1answer
322 views

analyze strategy performance with given matrix of weights/time and weekly returns in R

I have a matrix of 259 weekly returns, 50 assets and a portfolio composition for each of the 259 weeks. I would like to test the performance of the portfolio during 52 weeks, rebalancing every 12 ...
-3
votes
2answers
718 views

Market Data For Project

I'm looking to find a service that will allow me to download historical data on stocks, bonds, options, futures, indices, etc and also to pick up new files either on a daily or weekly basis. I've been ...
1
vote
2answers
282 views

Machine Learning on matlab 2010

I am trying to develop a trading model. It uses certain technical and fundamental features and the model learns from the past. I have a 3-class output - bullish, neutral and bearish. On trying neural ...
3
votes
4answers
995 views

IB TWS & API, without IB account?

I'll be starting a MFE grad program in Fall, and some of the classes have a lab that use the IB TWS & API. I'd like to play around with it for fun this summer. Unfortunately, I don't have an IB ...
1
vote
0answers
196 views

Comparing Backtests of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall

My goal is to test if ES (CVaR) empirically is a better risk measure than VaR for a set of given variables (assumed underlying distribution, confidence level, sample size) for different asset classes. ...
0
votes
1answer
321 views

backtesting with open, close, high and low

I am quite notice at the business of backtesting for an automated strategy. I was wondering, can I/should I use High and Low for this purpose? On one hand, the algorithm will see these prices, but on ...
0
votes
1answer
170 views

adjusted close prices on SP500

When I look at the adjusted close prices of SP500, for example, I notice that the numbers are always significantly below the actual closing. In the explanation of what adjusted prices are, one gets ...
1
vote
2answers
107 views

how to make a distribution model tolerable of trend?

I'm building an model on different loans' NPL rate. The problem is NPL rates are always affected by the market. When NPL rates move in trend, my model will fail the back-testing. Assuming $x(t)$ is a ...
4
votes
3answers
394 views

Backtesting - can you buy/sell at open and closing prices?

In backtesting (nasdaq stocks), I make the assumption that I have the ability buy/sell each day at the opening and closing prices. Is this realistic?
0
votes
1answer
72 views

How do I take an unbiased, sector neutral sample from a stock index?

I am looking to take a cross sector subset of a larger stock index universe. What steps to I take to assure that sector representation is as equal as possible to help smooth out my variance(while ...
3
votes
0answers
380 views

Testing Valuation, Size and Momentum (proprietary factors) from 1988-2013: No evidence of driving cross-sectional returns

I am currently testing whether three proprietary factors - Valuation, Size and Momentum - explain cross-sectional returns. A sample of 3000 securities was tested using Fama-MacBeth two-pass ...
3
votes
1answer
182 views

How to design back-testing (validation) for such modified Vasicek model?

Consider a classical Black Scholes model , $$\frac{dS}{S} = \mu dt + \sigma dW$$ , where $dW$ is a Brownian motion, that $W(t_1) - W(t_0) \sim N(0, t_1 - t_0)$. The back-testing strategy is ...
-2
votes
2answers
361 views

How to get/estimate ask/bid price for backtesting for OHLC data? [closed]

As you know, most of the EOD data available have only OHLC price. I used to do back-testing using the Close price as both bid and ask. however, in real world, the bid and ask spread is huge and the ...
3
votes
3answers
231 views

How to most optimally perform currency conversions when backtesting on portfolio level?

I am currently expanding my own strategy profiling and testing platform which partly consists of a portfolio backtesting module. The backtest engine processes tick based data (quotes for currencies, ...
2
votes
2answers
805 views

backtesting options strategies in R

I would like to backtest an options strategy in R. I require the ability to delta hedge and rebalance to options in the portfolio at different frequencies (daily, monthly,etc.) What packages are the ...
-2
votes
1answer
314 views

How to test the efficiency of Exponential Moving Averages as a trading startegy? [closed]

I would like to know how I can test the efficiency of Exponential Moving Averages when it comes to forex trading. Can i have any papers that point to the efficiency of this strategy? Thank you. :)
3
votes
0answers
225 views

Quant/Stat Factor Performance Website/Distribution?

Does anyone know of a decent quant/stat factor website, distribution(public or private) or publication that tracks performance of "many" of traditional quant/stat factors? By that I mean would show ...
3
votes
1answer
2k views

t-statistics for the mean return, using Newey-West standard errors

I have seen that in several papers, where the aim was to evaluate the performance of a certain investment strategy, they use t-statistics to test for significance in the results. However, this seems a ...
3
votes
2answers
435 views

Software for backtesting outside strategies (CSV transaction upload)

I've developed some software which generates sets of trades, and I'd like to backtest those trades. My software currently outputs a CSV file with details of each trade: ...
4
votes
2answers
243 views

How to reactivate a risk mangement rule in an automated process

If some conditions are met (stop loss, trailing stop, take profit...) we will close ours positions (sell/buy) to avoid having more loss or to ensure profit. In an automatic trading system, it is easy ...
5
votes
0answers
868 views

VaR model Unconditional Coverage Tests: Is this extension of Kupiec POF test correct?

Background: Kupiec P. in 1995, published paper "Techniques for Verifying the Accuracy of Risk Management Models" on Journal of Derivatives, v3, P73-84, it's a Unconditional Coverage Tests designe for ...
2
votes
1answer
172 views

backtesting a 5% quantile model of a discrete value random variable?

If a random variable is discrete, and we are interested in its quantile value, how to define a proper back testing procedure? For example, the underlying variable with a discrete value is $$ ...
5
votes
6answers
599 views

Encyclopedia of Statistical Tests

I am aware of: Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Encyclopedia of Technical Analysis. Question I'm wondering if there's something similar, but in the form of: "Encyclopedia of Statistical Backtesting ...
6
votes
1answer
971 views

What different methods of pairs selection exists? (For Pairs trading)

(I'm quite new to quant finance so I'm not sure if this is an eligible question.) I've decided I want to backtest pairs trading on the Nordic stockmarket. So I would guess there exists different ...
19
votes
7answers
2k views

How to design a custom equity backtester?

I was thinking about writing my own backtester and I realize I have to make some assumptions. So I was hoping I could post what I am planning on doing and hopefully some of you can give me some ideas ...
2
votes
2answers
891 views

Resequencing of MsgSeqNum in FIX 4.2

I am trying to achieve the following functionality using QuickFIX for FIX 4.2 Send a couple of orders and make sure they’re filled. Then disconnect. Change the incoming (from Broker) sequence number ...
3
votes
1answer
253 views

How do you estimate the capacity of a strategy from historical data?

What are some good ways to estimate the capacity of a strategy from historical data (including full market depth)? Obviously, a naive approach is that you want the strategy's returns to exceed its ...
2
votes
1answer
239 views

desk's performance

I need your point of view in evaluating the monthly performance of a desk. I have the daily credit risk capital requirement (A); the net banking income or GNP (B). What is the best measure of ...
4
votes
1answer
403 views

Bootstrapping first, then data mine?

I posted this on Cross Validated a month ago, but I didn't get any answers. Sorry for the second post! I'm wondering about the whole process of testing/data-mining for a strategy and THEN testing on ...
1
vote
1answer
350 views

Is making a bid/ask offer a good way to lower the spreads?

I have written an algorithmic trading program which relies heavily on low spreads in the 0.1-0.3 PIP region. I was now wondering if it would be a good idea to place bid/ask offers instead of limit ...
17
votes
3answers
2k views

Main backtesting & trading solutions: QuantFactory, Deltix, etc.

What are the most used/mature/promising commercial solutions today which handle backtesting/ automated trading needs? I'm talking about vertical product suites like QuantFactory or Deltix which ...
12
votes
3answers
780 views

How to account for transaction costs in a simulated market environment?

I am simulating a market for my trading system. I have no ask-bid prices in my dataset and use adjusted close for both buy and sell price. To account for this I plan to use a relative transaction ...
1
vote
0answers
162 views

Backtesting benchmark / control test design

I am designing a backtesting system to test an algorithm. I'd like to have a benchmark / control test results to compare to the results of a custom algorithm. A limited "set" of stocks is selected ...
5
votes
1answer
608 views

Statistical significance of trading systems that use indicators with long lookbacks

Let's say we have a trading system that trades daily, holding for one day, but uses an indicator that looks back over the last 5 years. A simple example could be the percent change in price of an ...
8
votes
3answers
2k views

What is an effective way of backtesting VWAP execution?

From Optimal Trading Strategies : There are two main reasons why traders execute orders using a VWAP trading strategy. First, a VWAP strategy is the trading strategy that minimizes market ...
3
votes
2answers
1k views

How to account for bid/ask spread when backtesting?

I'm backtesting an algorithm for trading nasdaq stocks, and would like to take into account the spread. I am using historical data from yahoo, which contains: open, high, low, close, volume, adj. ...