The process of evaluating a strategy, theory, or model by applying it to historical data.

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VaR model Unconditional Coverage Tests: Is this extension of Kupiec POF test correct?

Background: Kupiec P. in 1995, published paper "Techniques for Verifying the Accuracy of Risk Management Models" on Journal of Derivatives, v3, P73-84, it's a Unconditional Coverage Tests designe for ...
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1answer
183 views

backtesting a 5% quantile model of a discrete value random variable?

If a random variable is discrete, and we are interested in its quantile value, how to define a proper back testing procedure? For example, the underlying variable with a discrete value is $$ ...
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6answers
615 views

Encyclopedia of Statistical Tests

I am aware of: Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Encyclopedia of Technical Analysis. Question I'm wondering if there's something similar, but in the form of: "Encyclopedia of Statistical Backtesting ...
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1answer
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What different methods of pairs selection exists? (For Pairs trading)

(I'm quite new to quant finance so I'm not sure if this is an eligible question.) I've decided I want to backtest pairs trading on the Nordic stockmarket. So I would guess there exists different ...
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2answers
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Resequencing of MsgSeqNum in FIX 4.2

I am trying to achieve the following functionality using QuickFIX for FIX 4.2 Send a couple of orders and make sure they’re filled. Then disconnect. Change the incoming (from Broker) sequence number ...
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1answer
272 views

How do you estimate the capacity of a strategy from historical data?

What are some good ways to estimate the capacity of a strategy from historical data (including full market depth)? Obviously, a naive approach is that you want the strategy's returns to exceed its ...
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1answer
239 views

desk's performance

I need your point of view in evaluating the monthly performance of a desk. I have the daily credit risk capital requirement (A); the net banking income or GNP (B). What is the best measure of ...
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1answer
435 views

Bootstrapping first, then data mine?

I posted this on Cross Validated a month ago, but I didn't get any answers. Sorry for the second post! I'm wondering about the whole process of testing/data-mining for a strategy and THEN testing on ...
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1answer
366 views

Is making a bid/ask offer a good way to lower the spreads?

I have written an algorithmic trading program which relies heavily on low spreads in the 0.1-0.3 PIP region. I was now wondering if it would be a good idea to place bid/ask offers instead of limit ...
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Main backtesting & trading solutions: QuantFactory, Deltix, etc.

What are the most used/mature/promising commercial solutions today which handle backtesting/ automated trading needs? I'm talking about vertical product suites like QuantFactory or Deltix which ...
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3answers
809 views

How to account for transaction costs in a simulated market environment?

I am simulating a market for my trading system. I have no ask-bid prices in my dataset and use adjusted close for both buy and sell price. To account for this I plan to use a relative transaction ...
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167 views

Backtesting benchmark / control test design

I am designing a backtesting system to test an algorithm. I'd like to have a benchmark / control test results to compare to the results of a custom algorithm. A limited "set" of stocks is selected ...
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681 views

Statistical significance of trading systems that use indicators with long lookbacks

Let's say we have a trading system that trades daily, holding for one day, but uses an indicator that looks back over the last 5 years. A simple example could be the percent change in price of an ...
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What is an effective way of backtesting VWAP execution?

From Optimal Trading Strategies : There are two main reasons why traders execute orders using a VWAP trading strategy. First, a VWAP strategy is the trading strategy that minimizes market ...
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2answers
1k views

How to account for bid/ask spread when backtesting?

I'm backtesting an algorithm for trading nasdaq stocks, and would like to take into account the spread. I am using historical data from yahoo, which contains: open, high, low, close, volume, adj. ...
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1answer
420 views

What are the advantages of knowing the bid and ask over the best bid and ask?

I am importing historical intraday tick data from Bloomberg and I noticed the Bloomberg API allows users to import best bid, best ask, bid, and ask prices If I am backtesting a trading strategy, what ...
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279 views

VaR backtesting with overlapping time intervals

Of course the issue here is dependence: can it be removed or accounted for (in independence tests too, which of course would be troublesome)? There's a lot of literature on regression in this setting, ...
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4answers
2k views

How should I include the bid-ask spread as a transaction cost in a backtest?

I have two backtesting algorithms: One that uses bid and ask prices for signal generation. For example: Buy when $ask < threshold_1 $ and sell when $bid > threshold_2$. Bid and ask prices are ...
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1answer
102 views

Aftcast Generation

Aftcast is a way of simulating equity curves for different start years, usually from a large sample data ~100 years. Its kind of like start date sensitivity testing but in my case, I incorporated ...
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1answer
164 views

How far back is normal to backtest an ATS ? [duplicate]

Possible Duplicate: How much data is needed to validate a short-horizon trading strategy? How far back do people usually backtest trading systems? months? years?
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1answer
594 views

What tools and libraries may be used to model limit/stop systematic trading?

A lot of the tools/libraries out there seem to focus on close to close time series analysis. This is all fine but I typically do not trade close to close, I will use limit or stop orders that may or ...
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0answers
40 views

Inferring Returns From Minimal Data Points [duplicate]

Possible Duplicate: How much data is needed to validate a short-horizon trading strategy? Suppose I have daily returns for a trading strategy against one month of data. Before starting ...
3
votes
1answer
313 views

How do I backfill the price of bonds for backtesting?

I need to backfill the price of bonds for testing a startegy. The method employed is: Regressing the YTM of the bond against a benchmark. Using the regression estimates to calculate the YTM for the ...
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1answer
888 views

What latency should I use for backtesting a high-frequency strategy?

We're developing an HFT strategy for highly liquid futures traded at Eurex. We are planning to colocate our server and to use data feed of QuantHouse and execution API of ObjectTrading. Backtesting is ...
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1answer
353 views

Cross Bid and Ask prices for Forex trading

I am using ITCH protocol to get the Market Data information for Forex and trying to implement LOB on it and what i have noticed is that Bid and Ask prices are crossing very often. Should that be ...
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2answers
462 views

One bar look-ahead backtesting

Suppose you backtest the EUR/USD (or GBP/USD) forex pair with this system on the 1min timeframe: 1) Enter the market at any time n: go long if the "future" bar n+1 has a higher close as the close ...
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Are there canonical test cases for testing of pricing engines

Short intro: We are developing pricing engines for the calculation of market risk in a Solvency II solution, including bonds, callable bonds, cds, options, futures and so on. Are there any canonical ...
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659 views

Literature on generating synthetic time series for testing

I have some market data (daily time series) for bond prices and CDS indices and I would like to generate synthetic versions of these which are statistically "similar" for testing trading strategies. ...
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5answers
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What are the advantages of switching platforms/languages between strategy development and implementation?

I am interested in coding a medium frequency (trading over minutes to hours, holding for days to weeks) quantitative trading strategy and trading it with Interactive Brokers. I have seen many people ...
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1answer
418 views

Any research paper on stop loss?

Has there been any rigorous study on stop loss ? When to apply it? Has it been shown to work through proper statistical backtests? I am interested in Equities, preferably European stocks.
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2answers
1k views

How to vet an intraday strategy

I am working on an intraday strategy using 5/10 minute bars. I am getting a decent return and sharpe on the strategy. But on close examination I see that I am making about 1 cent per trade (I haven't ...
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2answers
256 views

Which indices to use for an equity vs. fixed-income portfolio simulation?

I want to backtest several basic optimization methods (e.g. MVO, "most-diversified portfolio"), and I want to do this on a basket of different asset indexes. To start with, I want to simulate a 60/40 ...
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4answers
957 views

How to properly evaluate backtest returns?

Do you evaluate a strategy in a backtest based on the cumulative returns generated by the strategy (i.e. looking at the cumulative returns of the trades that occur) or do you start with a certain ...
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3answers
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How to compute the alpha decay of a strategy?

How can one compute the alpha decay of a systematic trading strategy?
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4answers
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Evaluating automated trading strategies: accepted practice

Both for private projects, and for clients, I've been working on code a lot this year to evaluate automated trading strategies. This often ends up turning into the task of how to fairly compare apples ...
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2answers
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How to build a regime-switching model which knows its own limits?

In recent months I've come to the conclusion that there are not only certain regimes in the markets (like bear or bull) but phases where all models fail because we are in uncharted territory. The ...
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3answers
2k views

What is the ideal ratio of in-sample length to out-of-sample length?

Suppose you are running a portfolio of quantitative strategies and that you develop a new potential strategy to be added to the mix. Assume for simplicity that the new strategy is independent of the ...
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1answer
483 views

What to ask for in a good prototyping framework?

Reading up on quantitative methods, model development, and back-testing, one obvious question springs to mind: What should one ask of a prototyping (model testing) framework? I know a lot of people ...
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1answer
463 views

Are shorter holding period strategies better?

Consider two statistically identical strategies (identical information ratios, sample size, ratio of transaction costs to total profit, etc.) except that one has a much shorter average holding period. ...
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2answers
2k views

How much data is needed to validate a short-horizon trading strategy?

Suppose one has an idea for a short-horizon trading strategy, which we will define as having an average holding period of under 1 week and a required latency between signal calculation and execution ...
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4answers
691 views

What are the risk factors in analysing strategies?

What do you think of strategies displayed on timelyportfolio.blogspot.com? I really like the fact that there is some code to reproduce the strategies, but they seem very elementary because he does ...
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3answers
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How to generate synthetic FX data for backtesting?

I want to generate synthetic forex data for the purpose of backtesting my trading algorithms. I have some rough ideas in mind on how to do this: Start with a curve representing a trend, then randomly ...
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1answer
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How do I backtest a convertible bond arbitrage strategy in R/Matlab?

Since no one was able to answer my previous question, I am going to try to backtest a modern convertible bond arbitrage strategy myself (perhaps I'll report the results back here, if you're lucky :)). ...
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1answer
420 views

Comparing backtesting returns with real trading returns

I have 10 years of backtested simulated performance of some trading strategy (using historical prices), and N months of actual trading performance. What statistical test can I do find out if I'm on ...
9
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2answers
1k views

How to simulate slippage

I'm backtesting a trading strategy, using free OHLC data from yahoo or google. I'm simulating friction by lopping a flat percentage (say 0.5%) off my returns for each day that I make a trade. Whats ...
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1answer
236 views

Multiple comparison problems

I recently read a blog entry where some statistics were generated for a common technical analysis indicator. Below is the link. My question shows up close to the bottom under the name bill_080, in ...
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6answers
3k views

What are the popular methodologies to minimize data snooping?

Are there common procedures prior or posterior backtesting to ensure that a quantitative trading strategy has real predictive power and is not just one of the thing that has worked in the past by pure ...
8
votes
3answers
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Trading C++ Libraries

Are there any free c++ libraries that would have some of the functions that would be used in developing a trading strategy. For instance, calculating drawdown, Volatility Forecasting, MAE, MFE....etc. ...
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5answers
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How to conduct Monte Carlo simulations to test validity of Black Scholes for a specific option?

In reference to the original Black Scholes model, what approach is best to test the model in a rigorous way? Is there a standard approach that can accomplish this in a reasonable amount of time? ...
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389 views

Seeking Historical Non-Finance Datapoints for Backtesting

I'm working on some financial analysis code which I'd like to test against a historical dataseries to analyze the correlations to my algorithm to some non-finance related data. Ideally, I'd like to ...