The process of evaluating a strategy, theory, or model by applying it to historical data.

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9
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4answers
716 views

What are the risk factors in analysing strategies?

What do you think of strategies displayed on timelyportfolio.blogspot.com? I really like the fact that there is some code to reproduce the strategies, but they seem very elementary because he does ...
12
votes
3answers
4k views

Papers about backtesting option trading strategies

I am looking for all kinds of research concerning option trading strategies. With that I mean papers that publish results on different option trading strategies properly backtested with real-world ...
11
votes
1answer
456 views

Comparing backtesting returns with real trading returns

I have 10 years of backtested simulated performance of some trading strategy (using historical prices), and N months of actual trading performance. What statistical test can I do find out if I'm on ...
10
votes
3answers
1k views

How to simulate slippage

I'm backtesting a trading strategy, using free OHLC data from yahoo or google. I'm simulating friction by lopping a flat percentage (say 0.5%) off my returns for each day that I make a trade. Whats ...
8
votes
3answers
2k views

What is an effective way of backtesting VWAP execution?

From Optimal Trading Strategies : There are two main reasons why traders execute orders using a VWAP trading strategy. First, a VWAP strategy is the trading strategy that minimizes market ...
5
votes
1answer
241 views

Multiple comparison problems

I recently read a blog entry where some statistics were generated for a common technical analysis indicator. Below is the link. My question shows up close to the bottom under the name bill_080, in ...
8
votes
3answers
7k views

Trading C++ Libraries

Are there any free c++ libraries that would have some of the functions that would be used in developing a trading strategy. For instance, calculating drawdown, Volatility Forecasting, MAE, MFE....etc. ...
21
votes
8answers
2k views

How to design a custom equity backtester?

I was thinking about writing my own backtester and I realize I have to make some assumptions. So I was hoping I could post what I am planning on doing and hopefully some of you can give me some ideas ...
10
votes
5answers
1k views

How to conduct Monte Carlo simulations to test validity of Black Scholes for a specific option?

In reference to the original Black Scholes model, what approach is best to test the model in a rigorous way? Is there a standard approach that can accomplish this in a reasonable amount of time? ...
6
votes
1answer
180 views

Data on US bankruptcy rate vs. standard valuation ratios

Does anyone know of any research or data on US corporate bankruptcy rates as a function of standard valuation ratios, such as P/B, P/E, etc.? I'm trying to adjust the results of backtests to account ...
8
votes
4answers
394 views

Seeking Historical Non-Finance Datapoints for Backtesting

I'm working on some financial analysis code which I'd like to test against a historical dataseries to analyze the correlations to my algorithm to some non-finance related data. Ideally, I'd like to ...
18
votes
3answers
3k views

Main backtesting & trading solutions: QuantFactory, Deltix, etc.

What are the most used/mature/promising commercial solutions today which handle backtesting/ automated trading needs? I'm talking about vertical product suites like QuantFactory or Deltix which ...
6
votes
2answers
352 views

Is there something like opportunistic “superstitious” trading?

This sentence in the following paper got me thinking: "Some traders [...] trade every pattern whether proven or not, expecting authentic ones to produce positive results, whilst the profits and ...
6
votes
1answer
553 views

What are the ensemble techniques to forecast returns?

It was pointed in an other question that ensemble methods can help to reduce curve fitting. What are your experience with these and which one seems the most appropriate? If I had two forecasters that ...
34
votes
5answers
2k views

What are the key risks to the quantitative strategy development process?

Prompted in part by this question on data snooping, I would be interested to know: What are the key risks that should be considered when developing a quantitative strategy based on: (a) historical ...
30
votes
6answers
4k views

What are the popular methodologies to minimize data snooping?

Are there common procedures prior or posterior backtesting to ensure that a quantitative trading strategy has real predictive power and is not just one of the thing that has worked in the past by pure ...
13
votes
6answers
8k views

Are there any good tools for back testing options strategies?

There are all kinds of tools for backtesting linear instruments (like stocks or stock indices). It is a completely different story when it comes to option strategies. Most of the tools used are ...
30
votes
8answers
7k views

What broker/feed/APIsetup allows for recording the most accurate data (cheaply)?

I'm currently using IB's Java API and getting feeds through them. However the real-time feed is updated only every 250ms and the historical feed only every second. I'm primarily looking for ES data ...