The process of evaluating a strategy, theory, or model by applying it to historical data.

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2
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1answer
36 views

Need advice about distributed backtesting architecture [on hold]

We are working under complex enough distributed trading system where several components will run on different physical machines. Unfortunately, I'm stuck on part backtesting part. Originally we was ...
1
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1answer
31 views

how to choose a price adjustment, a roll date and a data center for my trading strategy?

I have many doubts about Which roll date and price adjustment should I use. I need to backtest like 50 diferents futures. 6 index(mini sp500, Nikkei 225…), 10 Agriculture (soybean, Oat, Corn….),3 ...
5
votes
1answer
223 views

Up and Down days in GBPUSD and a Filter

I want to study if the odds of an up or down day in a forex pairs is 50-50. I just count the total number of up and down days in X years and compare it with the total days. The results are very ...
1
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0answers
29 views

Bloomberg Historical Fundamental Data - Point in time

I'm trying to retrieve historical stocks fundamental data from Bloomberg to backtest some quant ideas. I'm having trouble to find the correct point in time the data was available. For instance, the ...
4
votes
1answer
80 views

Backesting VaR on overlapping intervals to year's end

Let us assume that each month of the year (up to November) we calculate a VaR (say 99%) with holding period to the end of the year. Thus the holding period starts with 12 months and goes down to 1 ...
0
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0answers
13 views

Value at Risk Backtest type 2 error

I am wondering why in the most popular tests(Kupiec's POF, Christoffersen, the Null hypothesis is "our model is accurate". If we set our null hypothesis that way, we only have a decent result if we ...
2
votes
1answer
26 views

Simple Moving Average Backtest: Cumulative Return too high

I apologize if this is way too basic a question, but I'm an absolute beginner to trading and am in the process of learning the fundamentals. Currently I'm trying to model a (10-day) SMA backtest in ...
1
vote
1answer
34 views

Backtesting and dividend adjustments

I am backtesting a number of trading strategies using a feed of unadjusted data from Factset. Before I run the backtest my routines adjust the data for splits and for special dividends. One question ...
5
votes
2answers
82 views

How to find funds with long history to use in backtest?

Is there a way (website/code) to find funds/etfs for a given asset class and how much data history is available (yahoo finance or other) ? It could be as simple as a list of funds by asset class and ...
1
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1answer
72 views

ES not elicitable

Expected Shortfall is not elicitable as some papers have pointed out. That simply means that there is no scoring function that elicits ES. My question is, does this imply that Expected Shortfall ...
2
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1answer
44 views

Backtesting Strategies - Sampling and returns types

I am back testing a strategy in R and I have some questions about testing design. I have a universe of around 500 stocks to test filtered based on liquidity. To test the trading strategy I have ...
1
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0answers
18 views

Making apriori Statements on VaR Backtests with a Garch Modelled VaR

so I want to find out, if its possible to find out for any backtest for the Value at Risk(Kupics POF or Christophersen's Markov Test), if it is possible to make apriori Statements on Testing results ( ...
5
votes
4answers
2k views

IB TWS & API, without IB account?

I'll be starting a MFE grad program in Fall, and some of the classes have a lab that use the IB TWS & API. I'd like to play around with it for fun this summer. Unfortunately, I don't have an IB ...
0
votes
0answers
21 views

Kfold cross validation: how to handle hold-out periods

I want to backtest a strategy using K-fold cross validation. Assume I have a period of 300 days in my backtest. I divide it into 30 folds of 10 days each. On day 1 of a fold, I enter a trade, and ...
4
votes
1answer
301 views

How to optimize return in a moving average crossover algorithm

Moving average crossover strategy is a widely used strategy in algo trading. Is there a way to optimize return in a moving average crossover stratergy. I have used this site to backtest MA crossover ...
0
votes
0answers
8 views

Video Metadata Backtest

If you were to Backtest data extracted from video feeds, let's say for commodities. How many years/hours of video would you desire? The video repository is currently harvested going back 5 years and ...
0
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0answers
58 views

backtest asset allocation strategies

I've searched the site but haven't found an easy way to backtest my personal portfolio allocations. Suppose I want to know the total return for the following portfolio from Jan 1, 2009 to Dec 31, ...
7
votes
2answers
515 views

Why do institutions backtest?

I see that institutions still use backtesting by computing P&Ls over historical data and then compute some aggregating ratios to see whether a trading strategy is good or not even though it is not ...
0
votes
0answers
22 views

Video Analysis Platform

I own a data analysis company which is currently bulk extracting metadata from historical market video and audio files, and creating alternative/historical datasets around commodities, S&P 500 ...
0
votes
2answers
126 views

Backtesting software with custom data input

I was considering to develop a custom backtesting platform for myself. However, I see that it would require some significant time and effort, and the result might not be as initially expected. So I ...
0
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0answers
7 views

Is Market OPG an efficient means of entering positions at historic daily open prices?

This question pertains to backtesting a strategy against historic daily data. If a strategy is devised using such data, is Market OPG a reasonable way to enter positions? Expanding, the question is ...
1
vote
0answers
110 views

How to backtest Value at Risk Models using Conditional and Unconditional tests?

I am trying to carry out backtesting on a number of Value at Risk figures i obtained using var/covar, historical, and monte carlo simulation. The two methods im using are the Kupiec test ...
6
votes
1answer
268 views

R Backtesters: Quantstrat vs SIT

I am learning R, and want to start using a backtester. I have spent about a day reading all I can about R backtesters, and it seems there are 2 main contenders: quantstrat, which uses the packages ...
1
vote
1answer
71 views

How to get the the final % return in backtesting?

I'm learning how to do backtesting in Python using Pandas. I'm learning how to use Moving Average Crossover. I've generated signals to buy or to sell already. But I'm not sure where to go from there? ...
4
votes
1answer
64 views

Why the diff of signal is called positions and what does it mean in backtesting?

I'm trying to learn Backtesting 101. I found this example which is very simple but I do not quite understand some of the terms. I understand Moving Average algorithm which is to measure trends or to ...
3
votes
2answers
128 views

Limits on Short selling

When back testing an algorithm that relies upon short selling certain stocks, how to limit the short selling so that the back-test results still remain reliable? What kind of controls are generally ...
3
votes
0answers
83 views

Strategy Testing

Firstly I am a newbie so I will apologise in advance if this is in the wrong forum. My question concerns testing for an equity trading strategy and I would appreciate any comments as to whether my ...
2
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4answers
861 views

Backtesting with Simulated Historical Data?

The trading strategies that are going to backtest well are the ones that pick the winners from the past. For example, if a trading strategy simply bought apple stock it would backtest extremely well. ...
5
votes
4answers
727 views

Backtesting - can you buy/sell at open and closing prices?

In backtesting (nasdaq stocks), I make the assumption that I have the ability buy/sell each day at the opening and closing prices. Is this realistic?
2
votes
0answers
29 views

Significance testing of average returns from Sharpe ratio

I'm aware that one way to do significance testing on a strategy is based on the sampling distribution of its Sharpe (see, e.g., Lo, 2002 and Opdyke, 2008). However, it appears to me that there's ...
2
votes
1answer
54 views

Historical index components (FIGIs) from bloomberg?

In order to run strategy simulations, I am trying to build a database of historical equity data using Bloomberg. I can pull the ticker symbols corresponding to the components of an index at any point ...
1
vote
2answers
149 views

How to estimate probable seeling pricegiven OHLC data for backtesting?

I'm relative new to this, so I might be asking something that doesn't make sense. Here is my scenario: I have intraday day at 1 minute intervals. This data has ohlc data and I want to compute for any ...
4
votes
3answers
384 views

What is an acceptable Sharpe Ratio for a prop desk?

What should be the value of a Sharpe Ratio for an intraday quantitative strategy to be accepted by a bank or hedge fund's prop desk? Let's assume the returns are daily changes in account equity, close ...
1
vote
1answer
249 views

Is there a good backtesting package in R?

My model exports a vector that have for each day b-buy s-sell or h- hold it's look like this: sig [1] b b s s b b b s s b s b s s b s b s s s s b b s s b b b b b b s b b b b b b b I want to ...
5
votes
1answer
328 views

Backtesting on historical option data

I have downloaded some daily historical option data for a timespan of 10 years and want to perform trading backtests with them. Data are European index options, on ODAX. My question is about realistic ...
4
votes
2answers
2k views

Resequencing of MsgSeqNum in FIX 4.2

I am trying to achieve the following functionality using QuickFIX for FIX 4.2 Send a couple of orders and make sure they’re filled. Then disconnect. Change the incoming (from Broker) sequence number ...
16
votes
3answers
4k views

Papers about backtesting option trading strategies

I am looking for all kinds of research concerning option trading strategies. With that I mean papers that publish results on different option trading strategies properly backtested with real-world ...
11
votes
1answer
358 views

What mathematical models did Harry Markopolos run to prove that Bernie Madoff 1% a month gain was a Ponzi scheme?

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-man-who-figured-out-madoffs-scheme-27-02-2009/ Asked how long it took him to figure out something was wrong, Markopolos said, "It took me five minutes to know ...
2
votes
0answers
97 views

R quantstrat backtest with dollar based position sizing

I am attempting to tweak a quantstrat based backtest but have run into an issue. The maxPos limits are share based, and I would rather use a fixed dollar amount instead. So I've tried generating a ...
0
votes
0answers
44 views

optimal look back period for cointegration analysis on daily prices

I'm running some cointegration tests on 2 stock pairs and was wondering, generally speaking, what would be the optimal look back period to test considering I am using daily prices and the average ...
1
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1answer
161 views

What is the logic behind this backtesting code in R

I am new to R and I have found this simple backtesting code and can you explain me what is happening here. ...
2
votes
1answer
768 views

How to fully replicate ADX + DI Indicators in Excel? [closed]

For black box testing, I was hoping that I could replicate the ADX + DI+ and DI- indicators that are provided in trading platforms such as ThinkOrSwim, ScottradeElite etc. However, I noticed that ...
11
votes
3answers
2k views

How to simulate slippage

I'm backtesting a trading strategy, using free OHLC data from yahoo or google. I'm simulating friction by lopping a flat percentage (say 0.5%) off my returns for each day that I make a trade. Whats ...
5
votes
1answer
297 views

Getting ETF data from google finance

I hope this is on-topic. I want to set-up a set of investment rules and back-test it on a mix of asset-classes. Thus I thought that using ETFs for the back-test would be a good idea (time series could ...
14
votes
6answers
12k views

Are there any good tools for back testing options strategies?

There are all kinds of tools for backtesting linear instruments (like stocks or stock indices). It is a completely different story when it comes to option strategies. Most of the tools used are ...
8
votes
0answers
190 views

Here is an approach for measuring Data Snooping; is it new?

I came up with an approach for measuring data snooping, or overfitting. My question is whether this approach was published and expanded-on already, or is it new? My approach relies on the observation ...
-1
votes
1answer
44 views

Monthly Return Net of Fees [closed]

How can I calculate the monthly return net of fees if the fee is annual?For example, if every year there is a 20% incentive fee, is there a formula to adjust the return of each month to compensate for ...
4
votes
1answer
73 views

Methodology for handling short american options in a back test

Given that an American option can be exercised at any time, how does one handle algorithmically shorting an American option in a back test? I am not sure what the best practice is to simulate the ...
5
votes
2answers
6k views

t-statistics for the mean return, using Newey-West standard errors

I have seen that in several papers, where the aim was to evaluate the performance of a certain investment strategy, they use t-statistics to test for significance in the results. However, this seems a ...
2
votes
1answer
72 views

importing columns of returns data into python from excel/csv [closed]

I'm fairly new to the quant finance space, and I was hoping to get some guidance. Say I have a csv/excel file with columns of daily returns data for various asset classes or securities (one column per ...