The tag has no wiki summary.

learn more… | top users | synonyms

2
votes
1answer
11 views

Is probability implied by binary FX options risk neutral or real world?

If we consider binary FX options in the market and estimate the market implied probabilities of certain FX rates occurring, would these resulting probabilities be risk neutral or real world? I hear ...
1
vote
1answer
97 views

Effect of vol smile on risk neutral probability of ITM

I was asked in an interview about how the vol smile affect the price of a binary option, which is essentially the Prob(ITM) under risk neutral measure. My thought is that the implied vol at spot ...
3
votes
4answers
273 views

Does an implied volatility always exist for a binary option?

I'm trying to compute the implied volatility of a binary option but I cannot get some of the strikes to reach a convergent solution using either a Monte Carlo pricing model or an analytical Black ...
2
votes
0answers
58 views

How to value a Binary Option using market data?

Is there a way to calculate the price of a binary option (i.e., an option that pays out 1 dollar when the stock price hits $x$ amount) using market call/put option prices, forward prices, etc. for a ...
5
votes
5answers
932 views

Do binary options make any sense?

Reading from "www.nadex.com" - the copy reads "Binaries are similar to traditional options but with one key difference: their final settlement value will be 0 or 100. This means your maximum risk and ...
0
votes
0answers
85 views

Derivation of the formulas for the values of European asset-or-nothing and cash-or-nothing options

The asset-or-nothing European option pays at t = T the value of the stock when at time T that value exceeds or is equal to the exercise price E, and nothing if the value of the stock is below E. So, ...
0
votes
0answers
57 views

Pricing defaultable binary option with hazard rate approach

I'm studying defaultable claims and asked myself how to price a digital payoff. Consider an option paying $1$ at maturity in case of non-default before maturity and if a given underlying process $S$ ...
1
vote
2answers
175 views

BInary Option implied volaltility

How is implied vol calculated if the quoted prices are out of the range for any possible volatility? E.g. Current quote on CBOE for options expiring on Aug 16, 2014 ...
9
votes
3answers
2k views

How does volatility affect the price of binary options?

In theory, how should volatility affect the price of a binary option? A typical out the money option has more extrinsic value and therefore volatility plays a much more noticeable factor. Now let's ...
1
vote
0answers
139 views

Pricing binary options with kernel density estimation

Suppose I have a large enough set of prices of an asset, from which I can extract the following function: $f:T\to\mathcal{D}$, where $T$ is a fixed finite set of time intervals (say, 1 minute, 2 ...
1
vote
1answer
172 views

Volatility calculation for intra-day cash-or-nothing call binary option

Firstly, I do not have a quant finance background. This is new to me, and I imagine that this is a basic question for this group. I am calculating the price of a binary/digital option with ...
7
votes
2answers
266 views

Extrapolating implied volatilities to small time

Could anyone please direct me to literature or methods for extrapolating the implied volatility surface towards small expiry? I'm looking to price very short time to expiry binary options (e.g. 5 ...
9
votes
0answers
470 views

Probability distribution of maximum value of binary option?

A binary option with payout \$0/\$100 is trading at \$30 with 12 hours to expiration. Assuming the underlying follows a geometric Brownian motion (hence volatility remains constant), what ...
4
votes
1answer
183 views

Creating a doubling and halving position

I want to create a position that either multiplies with $1+u$ (outcome $U$) or $1-d$ (outcome $D$). The probability of $U$ is denoted by $P(U) = \pi$. The initial value of the position is $V_0$. Given ...