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12
votes
1answer
701 views

Probability distribution of maximum value of binary option?

A binary option with payout \$0/\$100 is trading at \$30 with 12 hours to expiration. Assuming the underlying follows a geometric Brownian motion (hence volatility remains constant), what ...
10
votes
3answers
3k views

How does volatility affect the price of binary options?

In theory, how should volatility affect the price of a binary option? A typical out the money option has more extrinsic value and therefore volatility plays a much more noticeable factor. Now let's ...
9
votes
6answers
1k views

Do binary options make any sense?

Reading from "www.nadex.com" - the copy reads "Binaries are similar to traditional options but with one key difference: their final settlement value will be 0 or 100. This means your maximum risk and ...
9
votes
2answers
297 views

Extrapolating implied volatilities to small time

Could anyone please direct me to literature or methods for extrapolating the implied volatility surface towards small expiry? I'm looking to price very short time to expiry binary options (e.g. 5 ...
6
votes
5answers
520 views

Does an implied volatility always exist for a binary option?

I'm trying to compute the implied volatility of a binary option but I cannot get some of the strikes to reach a convergent solution using either a Monte Carlo pricing model or an analytical Black ...
5
votes
3answers
139 views

Binary Option in B-S model - technical question

I want to price Binary Option in Black-Scholes model. The payoff is of the form $f(S_{T})=I_{\{S_{T}-K>0\}}$. If we assume that $t=0$ this is easy, because then we have $C_{0}=\mathbb{E}^{*}\...
4
votes
1answer
190 views

Creating a doubling and halving position

I want to create a position that either multiplies with $1+u$ (outcome $U$) or $1-d$ (outcome $D$). The probability of $U$ is denoted by $P(U) = \pi$. The initial value of the position is $V_0$. Given ...
4
votes
1answer
121 views

How to value a Binary Option using market data?

Is there a way to calculate the price of a binary option (i.e., an option that pays out 1 dollar when the stock price hits $x$ amount) using market call/put option prices, forward prices, etc. for a ...
2
votes
1answer
85 views

Is probability implied by binary FX options risk neutral or real world?

If we consider binary FX options in the market and estimate the market implied probabilities of certain FX rates occurring, would these resulting probabilities be risk neutral or real world? I hear ...
2
votes
1answer
122 views

Effect of vol smile on risk neutral probability of ITM

I was asked in an interview about how the vol smile affect the price of a binary option, which is essentially the Prob(ITM) under risk neutral measure. My thought is that the implied vol at spot ...
1
vote
2answers
281 views

BInary Option implied volaltility

How is implied vol calculated if the quoted prices are out of the range for any possible volatility? E.g. Current quote on CBOE for options expiring on Aug 16, 2014 ...
1
vote
2answers
80 views

Counting random paths

Assume the path of a certain stock can be modeled using a binomial tree. The initial price of the stock at time $t=0$ is 1024. The upstage factor of the stock price is $x=1.25$ and downstage factor of ...
1
vote
3answers
219 views

Numerical Solution to BS PDE - Digital Option

Here is a relatively simple question about PDE's pricing. Assume that we are within the BS framework and moreover that interest rate is zero. The price $V(t,S_t)$ of the digital is known to be $\Phi(...
1
vote
3answers
102 views

Is it realistic to assume that the current price of a stock takes into account the probability of it going up or down in the future?

I'm currently reading the following lecture notes: http://www1.maths.leeds.ac.uk/~jitse/math2515/lecture04.pdf On the second page, under the subsection titled "The Risk-Neutral World" it points out ...
1
vote
1answer
199 views

Volatility calculation for intra-day cash-or-nothing call binary option

Firstly, I do not have a quant finance background. This is new to me, and I imagine that this is a basic question for this group. I am calculating the price of a binary/digital option with closed-...
1
vote
1answer
74 views

Arbitrage opportunity in discrete time

Say we have the following binary option $B$ on asset $S$ with strike K and expiration time T, assume also that the following relation holds at time $0$: $B > N*C(K,T)-N*C(K+1/N,T)$ Where $N$ is ...
1
vote
0answers
59 views

Binary American Call Option (Cash or Nothing)

Suppose we have a stock with current price $S(0)=X$ and the interest rate is zero. When the stock reaches level $\$ H$ for the first time ($H>X$), the option can be exercised and its payoff is $\$ ...
1
vote
0answers
170 views

Pricing binary options with kernel density estimation

Suppose I have a large enough set of prices of an asset, from which I can extract the following function: $f:T\to\mathcal{D}$, where $T$ is a fixed finite set of time intervals (say, 1 minute, 2 ...
0
votes
1answer
74 views

Binary Option valuation problem in R using RQuantLib; also result validation aspect

When I am trying to value Binary Option using RQuantLib I am not getting all the greeks for exctype "american" wheras "european" exctype is fine. What is the problem here ? ...
0
votes
1answer
127 views

Put-Call Parity Arbitrage Exploitation for Binary-Asset-or-Nothing Options

Is the Put-Call-Parity valid for binary (asset-or-nothing) options? If not, is there another formula for such exotic options? I know that for regular options, there are arbitrage opportunities when ...
0
votes
1answer
21 views

Binary Options hedge Forex position

if I am short GBPJPY and it start to jump up, instead of closing it, could I use Binary Options to long it immediately after jump up? So I could hedge current Forex position if possible.
0
votes
0answers
71 views

Binary option greeks formula for american style exercise

I got Binary option greeks formula in many below links but if i am not wrong indirectly they all are related to European exercise style. Link1: http://www.nag.co.uk/numeric/fl/nagdoc_fl24/pdf/S/...
0
votes
1answer
498 views

Derivation of the formulas for the values of European asset-or-nothing and cash-or-nothing options

The asset-or-nothing European option pays at t = T the value of the stock when at time T that value exceeds or is equal to the exercise price E, and nothing if the value of the stock is below E. So, ...
-1
votes
1answer
173 views

Is the code of my binary call option pricer (using explicit finite difference, backward scheme) correct? [closed]

I am using explicit finite difference (backward scheme) to price a binary call option. Here is my MATLAB code: ...