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0answers
24 views

Historical calibration of Hull-White model

I have a question concerning 1-factor Hull-White model. For my master project I need to calibrate it to compute Counterparty credit risk metrics. I know that the model might be calibrated either for ...
5
votes
1answer
132 views

How to calibrate a volatility surface using SVI

I've read the following paper by Gatheral and Jacquier and have several question regarding the calibration of a volatility surface in a arbitrage free way and some theoretical aspects. Let me first ...
0
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0answers
41 views

Estimate volatility in forecast

I have a model with a rolling forecast. In each time step $t$, I predict the price for the next periods, e.g. $\hat{p}(t, t+1)$ and $\hat{p}(t, t+2)$. If I start in $t=0$ and arrive at $t=2$, I ...
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0answers
22 views

calibration of Gaussian two factor short rate model

I am trying to calibrate the gaussian two factor short rate model whose dynamics is given by r(t)=x(t)+y(t)+phi(t) Now to calibrate the model to term structure ...
0
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0answers
36 views

Values for Heston Model Parameters

Under the Heston model, the stock price and volatility follow the processes \begin{align*} dS & = \mu S dt + \sqrt{V} S dW^1, \\ dV & = \kappa (\theta - V)dt + \sigma \sqrt{V} dW^2, \\ dW^1 ...
1
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1answer
55 views

Calibration of non-mean-reverting OU process

I'm looking for some reference on how to calibrate a non-mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to historical data using MLE or OLS. The model has the following SDE: ...
2
votes
1answer
36 views

Estimating $\mu$ - only increasing $T$ improves estimate?

Assuming an asset price $S$ follows a geometric Brownian motion (GBM), the log returns $R$ are distributed as $$ R_i := \log\left(\frac{S_i}{S_{i-1}}\right) \sim \mathcal{N}\left(\left(\mu - ...
3
votes
2answers
130 views

Interpretation of Drift

Consider the common model of stock prices given by a geometric Brownian motion (GBM), which follows the SDE $$ dS(t) = \mu S(t) dt + \sigma S(t) dW(t). $$ Below is a plot of a simulation of such a ...
7
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3answers
299 views

Option Pricing Model Calibration In Practice

I'm curious how an option pricing model like the Heston model is calibrated in practice. Here's how I imagine it happens: Let's say I have access to the most recent option prices on a given stock ...
1
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0answers
35 views

Initial values for Heston Model calibration

I'm doing a Heston model in Matlab using simple Monte Carlo simulations (5.000 paths and 2 steps per day, simulating 360 days). When I try to calibrate the Heston parameters using fminsearch it takes ...
2
votes
1answer
82 views

Calibration Merton Jump-Diffusion

Consider the following SDE $dV_t = rV_tdt +\sigma V_t dW_t + dJ_t$ where $J_t$ is a Compound poisson process with log-Normal jump size $Y_i$. How am I supposed to calibrate this model to CDS ...
2
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0answers
46 views

How to calibrate volatility surface for Interest Rate Cap&Floor pricing

I'm using Black model to do interest rate Cap & Floor pricing. The volatility is determined by using the bootstrapping methodology. However, afterwards, how should I do the calibration, or ...
2
votes
0answers
76 views

Calibration of Heston version of CIR

I'd like to calibrate a variant of Heston model for interest rates which is describe by this couple of SDE \begin{aligned}dr_t&=a(b-r_t)+\sqrt{r_t}\sigma_t dW_t^1 \\ ...
1
vote
3answers
171 views

Implied Vol vs. Calibrated Vol

Consider the Black-Scholes model, in which the log stock return over a time period $\Delta t$ is given by $$ \log(S_{i+1}/S_i) = (\mu - \sigma^2/2)\Delta t + \sigma \sqrt{\Delta t} Z_i, \qquad Z_i ...
2
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0answers
76 views

Calibration of Hull White One factor model in F.C.Park paper

I want to ask a question with reference to a paper from below link http://www.cmpr.co.kr/asset/research_material/implementing_interest_rate_models.pdf Minimization specified in Page 14: Mean ...
2
votes
1answer
242 views

Local volatility SVI parametrization

In this paper Gatheral presents the following parametrization of the implied total variance $w(k,T) = \sigma_{BS}(k,T)^2T$ for each slice $k \mapsto w(k,T)$: $$ w(k) = a + b\{\rho (k-m) + ...
2
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3answers
167 views

How to estimate parameters of geometric brownian motion with time-varying mean?

Does anyone know how to estimate $A$, $\sigma_1$,$\sigma_2$ from the following system? $$dx = \mu_t x dt + \sigma_1 x dB_x$$ $$d\mu = A(\bar\mu - \mu) dt + \sigma_2 dB_\mu$$ Variation in $x$ could ...
3
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1answer
127 views

How to get around flat likelihood function when calibrating GBM parameters?

I want to calibrate jointly the drift mu and volatility sigma of a geometric brownian motion, $$\log(S_t) = \log(S_{t-1}) + (\mu - 0.5*\sigma^2) \Delta t + \sigma*\sqrt{\Delta t}*Z_t$$ where $Z_t$ ...
2
votes
1answer
226 views

Commonly used vol surface calibration model in the industry

I have 2 questions: What is the most commonly used equity option pricing model? I learned jump diffusion at school, read about Hensen and a few other models online. I am actually only calibrating ...
6
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1answer
65 views

Calibration of nested pricing models consistently on two different classes of derivatives

Hi everyone, I'm programming in MATLAB and I have the following optimization problem in calibrating several nested specifications of pricing models. Summary: I have two pricing models ($1$ and $2$, ...
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0answers
55 views

How to compare market values with model values after calibration?

After calibration the G2++ model for interest (with swaption volatilities), I want to statistically test the quality of the calibration by comparing market to model values. What is the best way to ...
1
vote
1answer
254 views

How to calibrate the Hull-White model using cap prices?

I'm given cap prices and swap rates, and i'm trying to calibrate the Hull-White model to them. I then want to use the model in order to price a swaption. I know that the model can be calibrated from ...
1
vote
1answer
146 views

LMM. Calibration to swaptions by Brigo and Morini. Volatility of swaption that matures at T=0

I'm reading Brigo D., Mercurio F. Interest Rate Models - Theory and Practice (Springer, 2006)(ISBN 3540221492) and also a source article on LMM cascade calibration to swaptions by Brigo and Morini. I ...
2
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3answers
299 views

Calibration of a GBM - what should dt be?

I have a time series of daily data that I want to calibrate GBM parameters $\mu$ and $\sigma$ to. Using the discretized solution $$ S_{t_{i+1}} = S_{t_i}\exp\left(\left(\mu - ...
0
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0answers
163 views

Calibration Problem in the LMM-Skew (Shifted Diffusion) Model

I have implemented the LIBOR market model (LMM) and I am quite satisfied with the results. I have now added a skew to the model as described in 10.1 of Brigo/Mercurio. That is, I have replaced the SDE ...
2
votes
1answer
223 views

Stress Testing Methods

I'm working on the following task: Given quarterly data: a time series representing the 1-year realized (10 years of data) rates of default on a portfolio of mortgages a slew of ...
1
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0answers
85 views

Markov switching model estimation

We are testing Markov switching models to forecast risk regimes, similar to the paper by Kritzman, Page and Turkington. We find that in some cases the Baum-Welch algorithm converges very slowly or not ...
7
votes
1answer
319 views

How do you calibrate a poisson arrival rate process?

Many papers in the microstructure literature assume an order arrival rate of the form $\lambda^a(\delta) = \lambda^b(\delta) = Ae^{-k\delta}$ That is, an order that's placed $\delta$ away from the ...
5
votes
1answer
166 views

Model calibration to illiquid assets when pricing options with long maturities

Let us assume one is interested in pricing an option with a very long maturity (up to 20 or 30 years) on a liquid underlying. The market won't have liquid quotes for the higher maturities. Still you ...
4
votes
1answer
351 views

Calibrating Hull-White using volatility data

I would like to calibrate Hull-White model using volatility data.I am using [Park (2004)] paper as a reference. He suggests to minimize the following objective function: where the first term is ...
9
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2answers
4k views

How to calibrate Hull-White from zero curve?

I am interested in calibrating a Hull-White model to the market. I do not, however, have data on anything except the market zero curves, as all derivatives are being traded OTC. My plan is to ...
2
votes
0answers
101 views

Do some option pricing models allow for misspecification and what does it mean?

This is to some extent a theoretical question and maybe we can work together to produce some input and output. Diverse option pricing models are reported to be misspecified in various studies. One ...
2
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0answers
168 views

Dual curves and short rate calibration

When I calibrate a short rate model to market swaption vols, what curve am I getting when I plug in the calibrated parameters into the analytical formulae (assuming they exist for the model I'm ...
1
vote
1answer
318 views

Good Model Calibration Books/Papers for Common Option Pricing Models

I am trying to find a good book which focuses on the model calibration. I just want to know generally, what are the most common methods of model calibration(such as Black-Scholes Model, Stochastic ...
1
vote
0answers
113 views

What to do with linear regression or regression splines outside of the training range?

This is a cross-post from here In my question on a load forecast model using temperature data as covariates I was advised to use regression splines. This really seems to be a/the solution. Now I ...
4
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4answers
956 views

Other means of calibrating Heston models

I understand that the simplest way of calibrating a Heston model for volatility surface is to use Monte-Carlo to simulate the vol and stock price trajectories and then use the observed price to do a ...
3
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0answers
346 views

How does one estimate theta in the Ho-Lee model from a yield curve?

I have a yield curve constructed using linear interpolation with data points every 3-months for US treasuries. I would like to use that calibrate a Ho-Lee model, but I can't wrap my head around how ...
0
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0answers
58 views

Should portfolio be optimized by marking to the future than marking to market (excluding currencies)?

Observing the negative interest bonds in Switzerland, Denmark, GErmany the value of higher presently (credit-free) outgoing cash flows seems less important than the value of lower future (credit-free) ...
6
votes
3answers
347 views

What is an acceptable error on implied volatility?

Given an implied volatility surface (on equity indexes) and a calibrated model, what is the range of error on implied volatility a trader would accept ? This obviously depends on the model used to ...
3
votes
1answer
174 views

Parameter estimation using martingale measures - include real world data?

Please note: I posted this in nuclearphynance first, but didn't get any replies. For desks which sell exotics it is common practice (as far as I know it) to calibrate the model (Stochastic ...
8
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1answer
980 views

How to 'calibrate' simple pricing models for equity index options and equity options?

I am interested in doing some research on plain vanilla equity options and equity index options. I have historical data for these options. I also happen to have market maker 'fair price' (bid and ask) ...
3
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1answer
289 views

Which approach is better for modeling option exercise strategies, rational or behavioral?

This question is most relevant to the evaluation of embedded options, such as the refinancing option granted to borrowers in the mortgage and bank loan markets, or the call option present in some ...
7
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1answer
233 views

Are there “live” uses of the Generalized Method of Moments or are they all academic?

I see the Generalized Method of Moments suggested in numerous academic papers as a way to calibrate stochastic volatility models. However, any decent trading shop is going to calibrate to observable ...