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3
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0answers
230 views

How does one estimate theta in the Ho-Lee model from a yield curve?

I have a yield curve constructed using linear interpolation with data points every 3-months for US treasuries. I would like to use that calibrate a Ho-Lee model, but I can't wrap my head around how ...
2
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0answers
83 views

Do some option pricing models allow for misspecification and what does it mean?

This is to some extent a theoretical question and maybe we can work together to produce some input and output. Diverse option pricing models are reported to be misspecified in various studies. One ...
1
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0answers
29 views

Markov switching model estimation

We are testing Markov switching models to forecast risk regimes, similar to the paper by Kritzman, Page and Turkington. We find that in some cases the Baum-Welch algorithm converges very slowly or not ...
1
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0answers
90 views

Dual curves and short rate calibration

When I calibrate a short rate model to market swaption vols, what curve am I getting when I plug in the calibrated parameters into the analytical formulae (assuming they exist for the model I'm ...
1
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0answers
97 views

What to do with linear regression or regression splines outside of the training range?

This is a cross-post from here In my question on a load forecast model using temperature data as covariates I was advised to use regression splines. This really seems to be a/the solution. Now I ...
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56 views

Should portfolio be optimized by marking to the future than marking to market (excluding currencies)?

Observing the negative interest bonds in Switzerland, Denmark, GErmany the value of higher presently (credit-free) outgoing cash flows seems less important than the value of lower future (credit-free) ...