A measure of the degree of linear association between a pair of random variables.

learn more… | top users | synonyms

1
vote
1answer
22 views

market change, correlation and estimation bias

I hear many quants sating that markets change very slowly. This "fact" is even presented as a justification of statistical arbitrage, for example, by affirming that correlations remain roughly the ...
0
votes
2answers
39 views

Correlation Between 2 Portfolios

I have a set of assets, n. I'm trying to find the correlation between 2 portfolios, say x and y, where x is nested in, or, a sub-set of y. That is, x is a portfolio based on a sub-set of n, while y is ...
1
vote
1answer
60 views

Estimating correlation using EWMA

I am using an EWMA model to evaluate the correlation between yearly time series. I know Riskmetrics uses $\lambda=0.94$ for daily data and $\lambda=0.97$ for monthly data. Is there a value ...
1
vote
1answer
31 views

bootstrap asset allocation

I want to ask if the bootstrap method for asset allocation is preferable. For instance, suppose that we have data for the past returns for two stocks. Is it wise to generate the efficient frontierby ...
4
votes
2answers
123 views

Interpretation of Correlation

I have two geometric Brownian motions (GBMs) driven by the same underlying Brownin motion, namely \begin{align*} S_t^1 = S_0^1\exp\left(\left(\mu_1 - \frac{\sigma_1^2}{2}\right)t + \sigma_1 ...
0
votes
0answers
60 views

How to create a basket of currency pairs with the lowest correlation in R?

My strategy is designed to buy and sell all assets of a universe and rebalance periodically. It goes either long or short. To limit risk exposure to a single currency I would like the assets in the ...
0
votes
3answers
40 views

Small question about normalization

Lets assume I want to normalize some stock data ( prices or log prices) to compare for different types of correlation for example. And here is the question how should I normalize: a) by subtracting ...
0
votes
2answers
66 views

Garch for covariance matrix?

I have seen plenty of literature about GARCH on estimation volatility. how about covariance? There are plenty of risk models depending on the covariance matrix. I guess we can assume the correlation ...
2
votes
1answer
91 views

How to account for correlation between strategies when they are added linearly?

There are n strategies which are going to be combined linearly. Using a pre-exisiting model I get a set of n weights which will be used to combine the strategies. But the model does not take ...
0
votes
2answers
77 views

Right metric to manage a portfolio based on correlation?

I want to algorithmically add a new investment to an existing portfolio. The decision should be based on a low correlation to the existing assets. E. g. the following situation The portfolio ...
3
votes
1answer
199 views

How to calculate implied volatility smile of basket using correlations?

For a basket, the realized volatility can be calculated using: $$\sqrt{\sigma_1^2 + \sigma_2^2 + 2 \sigma_1 \sigma_2 \rho}$$ If I have the volatility surface of two underlyings S1,S2 (strike space). ...
3
votes
2answers
218 views

correlation for portfolio of stocks

I have a portfolio of stocks and all I want to do is to make sure that I'm not trading one big position, so I would like to monitor some type of metric that gives me a rough idea of what the overall ...
2
votes
2answers
74 views

hedging correlated instruments

If two instruments have a significant negative correlation but the percent change in the price of the instrument moving in positive direction is always more by a fraction than the one moving in ...
0
votes
1answer
190 views

Can the Minimum Variance Hedge ratio be greater than 1?

The Minimum Variance Hedge ratio is defined as: $h = \rho * \frac{\sigma_S}{\sigma_F}$ For correlation $\rho$ and $\sigma_S , \sigma_F$ for S.D. of changes in asset and future prices accordingly. ...
3
votes
1answer
176 views

Regime Switching for Dynamic Correlations

I would like to implement a Regime Switching for Dynamic Correlations in an out-of-sample analysis using MATLAB. After looking at the literature on the subject, they all refer to an article by Denis ...
1
vote
1answer
62 views

How can I forecast future correlation?

There are some standard models for forecasting volatility (e.g., GARCH) and for forecasting returns (e.g., factor models). What kind of standard models exist for forecasting future correlation between ...
1
vote
0answers
64 views

Time-Varying Copulas (GAUSS)

Could anyone suggest me how to begin with Time-varying Copulas or Stochastic Copulas? I'm looking for the GAUSS code, however it seems there are only MATLAB code available over the internet. I'm ...
1
vote
0answers
41 views

Should I use a correlation coefficient formula or a multiple regression formula?

I have an assignment dealing with the stock market and I'm a little lost. My instructions are to come up a method to create a score for a stock then compare the score against what the stock actually ...
5
votes
2answers
175 views

Two correlated time series - driver and follower

Say that there are two time series of highly correlated stocks one of which is the driver and the second one follows the first one. What mathematical measure or formula would you use to identify ...
3
votes
2answers
126 views

Why can't I multiply two SDE Solutions?

SDE 1 is S1 = S10 exp( (r1-sigma^2/2) * dt + sigma dW1 ) S2 = S20 exp( (r2-sigma2^2/2) * dt + sigma2 dW2 ) E[dW1 dW2] = rho I want to price an option on S1 x S2 I know I need to use the SDE's to ...
0
votes
0answers
15 views

Are these nonstationary variables?

If I have understood correctly, computing the correlation of two nonstationary variables can lead to spurious results. For example, computing the correlation of two stock price time series would lead ...
1
vote
1answer
157 views

Normalization of Market Data in Time Series Correlation

Suppose we have 2 time series of market data, one for each security and we want to correlate between these 2 securities. My question is How do we handle gaps of missing data in the time series? ...
1
vote
0answers
41 views

Pricing inflation lags

I've been looking into a short piece of maths I found on pricing inflation with payment delays, and was hoping someone could confirm whether my understanding was correct or if the maths isn't quite ...
2
votes
0answers
59 views

Inflation/Rates Correlation

I've been looking into a short piece of maths a colleague has written on pricing inflation with payment delays, and was hoping someone could confirm whether my understanding is correct, or if my ...
1
vote
2answers
102 views

Does the correlation of matrices have explanatory power when building a pattern recognition model?

I'm using 8 different variables (with daily observations) with the purpose to compare different months across the historical data. For that purpose I calculate the correlation between each month and ...
1
vote
1answer
238 views

Analog - Pattern Recognition model using KNN

I'm building a pattern recognition model for my master thesis. The idea is to build a framework with some Macro variables (long/short term rates; rates differential; equity; fx; vix) in order to find ...
1
vote
1answer
50 views

Hedging using relative values

Consider I have two stocks $A$ and $B$, $A$ is trading at $\$40$ and $B$ at $\$30$. The standard deviation of its returns are $\sigma_A=25\%$ and $\sigma_B = 30\%$. Correlation between the returns is ...
1
vote
1answer
511 views

What is Base- vs. Implied Correlation of a CDO tranche?

What is the difference between Base Correlation and Implied Correlation for a CDO tranche?
2
votes
2answers
65 views

Is this a reasonable approach to determine the relative importance of valuation factors?

I am trying to come up with a measure of relative importance of a number of valuation factors. I am wondering whether correlation coefficients can't be used for determining this. More on the issue: ...
1
vote
1answer
195 views

Estimate correlation of time series whose histories differ in length

Very often in quantitative analysis (e.g. calculating portfolio volatility) we have to analyze various time series - mostly returns - whose lenghts differ. Risk systems usually apply a one-factor ...
1
vote
1answer
126 views

Explain drop in Correlation between two time series in consecutive periods

I have a time series for a security list with 2 parameters calculated for each time period. For example, for a stock XYZ, I have Param1 and Param2 calculated over various time periods stacked against ...
2
votes
1answer
86 views

Correlation Multiple Currencies

If i have a portfolio of stocks from different currencies and i want to generate a correlation matrix from the stocks, how is the correct procedure ? Imagine a portfolio which the base currency is ...
1
vote
2answers
716 views

Correlation between S&P500 returns and 10y US Treasuries yields

I'd like to investigate the comovement of stock index returns with bond yields but I don't know which return's duration to use (1-year, 1-month or anything else) to get a better view of the ...
2
votes
1answer
107 views

Correlation of asset to portfolio, given certain variables

Ultimately I'm trying to calculate stdev contribution, but I've hit a hurdle. What I have: 20x20 correlation matrix for various assets Standard deviations for each asset Returns for each asset ...
0
votes
0answers
77 views

Correlating random numbers seems to skew the data

First off, apologies for the cross-post from mathematics, but I found this site later and think it would be a better fit for the question (besides, there has been no comments/answers on mathematics ...
2
votes
2answers
171 views

2 stocks, no shorting vs shorting. (concrete questions, mean-variance)

I'd appreciate help with the following questions. Suppose there are two stocks $A$ and $B$ with expected returns $E_A, E_B >0$ and volatilities $v_A, v_B >0$, respectively . Also, suppose ...
0
votes
1answer
79 views

Sample size and historical correlation matrices

I was wondering whether any literatures existed on how to properly estimate correlation matrices from historical data. Obviously the entire procedures allows a lot of leeway. The frequency of ...
1
vote
2answers
84 views

Implied Correlation using market quotes

Is there a way to retrieve the implied correlation between stock price and zero coupon bonds?
1
vote
1answer
177 views

High correlation will help detect spurious regression over cointegration?

I'm analyzing two financial time series with Johansen method. A high Correlation coefficient using the Pearson method will help me to detect spurious cointegration models to avoid? If this is not ...
1
vote
3answers
813 views

Calculate correlation between two sub portfolios and the combined portfolio

I have two sub portfolios (lets call them portfolio a & portfolio b - a portfolio is just a vector of weights that sum to 1) that combine to create a total portfolio. I also have a 2 x 2 ...
1
vote
1answer
372 views

Given a correlation martrix, calculate portfolio's correlation with its assets

Find correlation vector like $[ d e f ]$ where d, e and f represent correlation of P(portfolio) with its assets A, B and C respectively. The assets A, B, C can be another portfolio. In order for ...
3
votes
1answer
106 views

Partition assets into minimally correlated portfolios

My question covers a more or less classical portfolio optimization situation with a twist: How to partition assets into minimally correlated portfolios, with and without asset overlap. I have $N$ ...
1
vote
2answers
118 views

Harnessing small correlations for reliable profit

It is said that Edward O. Thorp was able to harness small correlations for reliable financial gain. I've seen some strategies based on strong correlations which did not seem particularly reliable. ...
2
votes
2answers
387 views

Why does it “say” portfolio diversification not suitable during market turmoil?

Currently I am trying to get a hold of MPT, asset allocation and related applications. While reading a particular resource, it says diversification works best for "normal" financial markets and ...
0
votes
1answer
89 views

Can we model components in a set of multivariate multi-period time-series data?

There are N data sets in periods occurring weekly/monthly, across a 10-year historical timeline. In each period, five dates are observed (labelled a to e), where a denotes the day the period ...
2
votes
1answer
405 views

Need overlapping sample autocorrelation correction for calculating asset return correlations

I want to measure the covariance structure of various asset returns based on varying investment periods. Campbell and Viceira (2005) do this, using known return predictors (i.e. dividend yield, ...
6
votes
2answers
229 views

Co-integration constraints of coint(X,Z) given coint(X,Y) and coint(Y,Z)?

The Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test can be used to measure how well ranked certain pairs are against others for co-integration. So then say we have a known co-integration between ...
2
votes
0answers
135 views

Correlation between idiosyncratic residuals and forward returns

The classic mean-reversion strategy is to calculate an "expected return" (alpha) by computing the raw return for each security and then remove the part which you think is market driven. Statistically ...
4
votes
2answers
225 views

Multifractal Model, Generating Sample Paths with Correlations between Assets

I have studied option pricing using Geometric Brownian Motion to generate sample paths. Because of the normal distribution, it is easy to create a covariance matrix and get correlated asset returns. ...
2
votes
0answers
178 views

Potential pitfalls in the use of correlation

Background: The red line is an index, which goes from 0 to 100, measuring uncertainty in the markets. The dark blue line is a price index, which has a lower bound at 0, and virtually no upper bound. ...