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0
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3answers
53 views

Skewed Student t distribution MLE and Simulation

I have Financial LOB data and I feel that a skewed t distribution will fit best. I have a problem trying to find the parameters using MLE numerically since Matlabs built in function does not allow for ...
2
votes
1answer
82 views

Vasicek yield curve

Term structure is determined by a two-factor affine model (Vasicek). Using the monthly swap market data, we fit the model to match exactly the one-year and ten-year points along the swap curve ...
0
votes
1answer
35 views

Constructing yield curve directly from yield-to-maturity data

I'm trying to use Bloomberg yield-to-maturity data for sets of sovereign bonds of different maturities to fit to a yield curve. I looked into using the QuantLib library (the FittedBondCurve ...
15
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0answers
3k views

Algorithm to fit AR(1)/GARCH(1,1) model of log-returns

I am fitting numerically an AR(1)/GARCH(1,1) process to index and stock log-returns, $r_t=\log(P_t/P_{t-1})$, where $P_t$ is the price at time $t$, and thus far am not clear on where the observed log ...
2
votes
0answers
188 views

Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette Model

im trying to predict crash time by using lppl model(JLS). My codes can run, but the error is to high....I try with some other initial values, but still can't reduce the error.....How i can reduce ...
1
vote
0answers
57 views

QuantLib FittedBondDiscountCurve fitResults [Error]

I try to use FittedBondDiscountCurve with NelsonSiegelFitting, but I faced with error when call fitResults() method: ...
1
vote
0answers
32 views

Introducing 1bp shocks to yield curve (and interpolation consequences)

Let us assume we have a LIBOR 3M curve and that I would like to introduce a small shock up/down of 1bp at a certain point along the curve. I am trying to find out what the best and most efficient way ...
1
vote
0answers
101 views

forecasting crash time of KLSE index (1991-1994)

Price deviation = financial bubbles. i try to fit the following stock price index to predict recession. I couldn't fit the model with the data(Data are not available in yahoo finance for the ...
1
vote
0answers
88 views

Fitting a sigmoid function to incomplete, structured, data

I have an incomplete data set that looks like this: and I believe that it will continue to form a sigmoid-like shape. How can fit a sigmoid curve to this data given my assumption about what the ...
1
vote
0answers
79 views

How to choose a window for curve fitting and prediction?

I am using Pareto distribution to fit a serie of survival rates (with least square). My ultimate goal is to use this fitting curve for prediction. Thus I would mainly focus on the tail of the ...