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3
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2answers
188 views

CDS Spread and Par Bond Yield Spread

It is claimed that the credit default swap (CDS) spread should approximate the risky par bond yield or coupon rate spread from the riskless bond on the same entity. This comes about when we assume ...
2
votes
3answers
71 views

Interpolating probabilities of default

I have a table of cumulative probabilities of default of industrial bonds, in time and credit rating. It is similar to S&P whitepaper here. Basically, it looks like this (sample numbers): ...
1
vote
2answers
128 views

Probability of Hyperinflation as a function of Probability of Soverign Default

I'm looking for some academic research on modeling risk of hyperinflation. Specifically, I'm interested in modeling the probability of hyperinflation over some time interval (e.g., probability of ...
1
vote
3answers
154 views

CDS Spreads and Equity Volatility

Why does CDS spreads track the implied volatility on equities? What is the fundamental relationship that would keep the two inline from deviating too far from each other? My speculation: Could it be ...
2
votes
3answers
112 views

Implied Probability of Default from Bond Prices

I am trying to build out a probability of default model for a bond. Given the current price of a bond and the current risk free rate, I am trying to calculate the probability of default. So assume a ...
3
votes
2answers
908 views

How to use Merton model to calculate default probability with monthly stock prices?

I want to calculate the estimated default probability with only given data the monthly returns for the last 20 years, the risk-free rate ($R_f$), equity value (EV) and the face value of debt ($D$). My ...