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8
votes
1answer
2k views

How to estimate probability of default from bond prices?

How do you use bond prices/yields to infer probabilities of default? I would think of it as follows: Create a relationship between default free (e.g., Germany) and defaultable (e.g., Greece) bond ...
5
votes
1answer
1k views

What is the unit of the Distance to Default measure?

I read in a book that the distance to default of a company is "2.978". Can anyone please tell me what is the unit implied behind this measure? Are they "years" for instance?
4
votes
1answer
201 views

Are there any well known methods of testing through-the-cycle rating systems?

Rating systems, as defined by the Basel II Accord, can be classified into two broad types - through-the-cycle (TTC) or point-in-time (PIT) - and the probability of default predicted by such a system ...
3
votes
2answers
693 views

How is the default probability implied from market implied CDS spreads for CVA/DVA calculation?

From point 38 on P.17 the default probability can be implied from market implied CDS spreads. "Macro Surface" method is mentioned, but I cannot get any clue of what it is? Where do I get the acedemic ...
3
votes
0answers
54 views

Credit spreads vs default events dependence

Reading this note it strikes me that credit spreads and defaults seem not to be commonly modeled jointly (e.g. more or less directly in structural models), but at best with some kind of "ex post" ...
3
votes
0answers
141 views

is there a mapping from Altman Z-score for private companies to bond ratings or probability of default?

On wikipedia, there is a formula to calculate the Altman Z-score for private companies: Z-score estimated for private firms: T1 = (Current Assets − Current Liabilities) / Total Assets T2 = Retained ...
2
votes
1answer
495 views

What is the difference between a recovery swap and a CDS?

As I understand it, recovery swaps and CDS are both used to privide hedging against the default risk of a loan. What is the difference between them?
2
votes
2answers
272 views

Hedging credit risk using Put equity options

I am looking for some paper or similar which deal with this topic: hedging bankruptcy on firm's debt using Put options written on that firm's equity price. This should be based on the assumption that ...
2
votes
1answer
87 views

Summary statistic for the average probability of default?

I have the following scenario: Let $X_i$ denote the event where some institution $i$ 'defaults' (don't worry about the exact definition of a default here, it is not relevant to the question at hand). ...
2
votes
0answers
97 views

default probability

Suppose the hazard rate is $\lambda$ the default probability density function follow exponential $f(t) = \lambda e^{-\lambda t}$ and cumulative probability function is $F(t) = 1 - e^{-\lambda t}$ ...
1
vote
0answers
210 views

Obtaining the default probability and recovery rate for each credit rating?

I have the following questions for obtaining the credit rating: Given that I have cumulative default probability of each credit rating from Global Corporate Average Cumulative Default Rates ...
1
vote
0answers
450 views

Question about Merton model to estimate default probability and recovery rate of the company

I recently come across Merton's model to estimate the default probability and recovery rate of the company. Here is the inputs ...