Shares of stock traded in a stock market. Equities represent the residual claim or interest of the most junior class of investors in assets, after all liabilities are paid.

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517 views

If I have found a way to predict stocks trend with 58% accuracy, is it good?

Say I have found a way through technical analysis to predict how stocks would behave with 58% accuracy, how good is this percentage?
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3answers
241 views

Can Gaussianity of returns depend on the time frame?

I would be interested in knowing if the fact that returns are Gaussian is disproved on all time frames, or if, for example, the 5 minute intra-day time frame could exhibits Gaussian returns assuming ...
6
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3answers
460 views

Scanning a stock database for errors/flaws

I'm currently working on some matlab code that is supposed to check a stock database for any errors (missing values, wrong values, etc.). The reason for this is that after reading this post I came to ...
6
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3answers
2k views

Is equity market making a game of speed?

I have always felt that equity market making was a speed game for HFTs. But recently I talked to someone on the buy side, who made a claim to the contrary. He argued that with the right market making ...
6
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2answers
317 views

What close price to assume for thinly traded stocks?

If a thinly traded stock has not traded for the last few days (volume=0), is it better to use the last known trade price (i.e. roll over last non-missing trade price) or use last known ...
6
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2answers
297 views

Why do I have a statistically significant slope regressing R(t) on R(t-1)

I am reading Cochrane's lecture note here He mentioned that when you regress annual return on time t on that of time t-1, you will have neither statistically significant nor economically significant ...
6
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3answers
2k views

How to calculate compound returns of leveraged ETFs?

Forewarning: this is a complete newbie question :-) I am starting to learn about ETFs by trying to do the numbers. When learning about the compounding effect in leveraged ETFs, I wanted to simulate ...
6
votes
1answer
226 views

How are dual class shares different from non dual class shares from a market makers' perspective?

Assume a stock Foo with a single share class. Furthermore, assume a dual class stock Bar with classes I and II with different voting rights. The shares in the different classes have equal cash flow ...
6
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2answers
390 views

Why are we obsessed over normalizing financial data?

I have recently began work on some high frequency financial tick data. I have been told to 'normalize' the data as much as possible and run linear regressions through them. In fact, the data doesn't ...
6
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3answers
632 views

Testing the validity of a factor model for stock returns

Consider the following m regression equation system: $$r^i = X^i \beta^i + \epsilon^i \;\;\; \text{for} \;i=1,2,3,..,n$$ where $r^i$ is a $(T\times 1)$ vector of the T observations of the dependent ...
6
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5answers
438 views

Thoughts on how quantitative hedge funds use machine learning to invest in the stock market (algorithms, examples of data, etc.)

I believe there are several post on this general topic but I thought I would start my own thread. I'm a former fundamental hedge fund investor (i.e. modeling a company's financials, forecasting the ...
6
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1answer
557 views

How to use binomial tree for portfolio of equity products

How can I use a binomial tree to price a European option that's based on a portfolio of equity products? I have volatility and correlation matrix of all underlying products? Looking for a formula ...
6
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1answer
401 views

What are the main market efficiency measures in the stock market?

I'm going to test for the effect of the change in market efficiency on the stock market portfolio, and, I want to know what are the main measures known in the academic literature in order to compare ...
6
votes
2answers
569 views

Non-negative matrix factorization for factor analysis of stocks

I stumbled over the term Non-negative matrix factorization in presentations such as Application of Machine Learning to Finance and this Big Data in Asset Management. The basic idea is to decompose a ...
6
votes
3answers
366 views

What is an acceptable error on implied volatility?

Given an implied volatility surface (on equity indexes) and a calibrated model, what is the range of error on implied volatility a trader would accept ? This obviously depends on the model used to ...
6
votes
1answer
262 views

Estimate price movement per unit of volume for daily data

I'm working on backtesting a number of stock trading strategies and need to estimate how much the execution price will likely deviate from the historical close price for that asset using daily data; ...
6
votes
1answer
425 views

NASDAQ TotalView ITCH order reference number number characteristics

I am building a custom hash implementation for storing NASDAQ ITCH order messages. Obviously this is keyed on the order reference number and I am wondering if these numbers are sequential, random or ...
6
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1answer
41 views

Where to get Tobin's Q by country

I am trying to rank countries based on Tobin's Q ratio. US data can be easily gathered from FED's report and is available on multiple website. I want get data on other countries with high Index of ...
5
votes
3answers
3k views

Quick way to check what 'tape' a stock belongs to?

For the SIP feeds, there is the CTA and the UTP plan and they cover Tapes A,B and Tape C respectively. Is there an easy way to check on google what tape a stock would belong to? Particularly when it ...
5
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4answers
844 views

Do low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks over the long run?

A recent article from Forbes seems to indicate that low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks over the long run. Does anyone have any supporting or contradicting evidence to this claim? ...
5
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2answers
220 views

Can money technically flow in and out of stocks or asset classes?

For every buyer, there is a seller. Money can't 'flow' in and out of a stock, only the price changes. Is this applicable in the context of asset classes, for example, money market funds versus stocks? ...
5
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2answers
2k views

What are the econometric assumptions in the Fama-Macbeth procedure (1973)?

Fama-Macbeth (1973) introduce a two stage cross-sectional regression method (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fama%E2%80%93MacBeth_regression). 1) If I was to regress stock prices (or returns) on a ...
5
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1answer
970 views

Backtesting with fundamentals

Recently I've read some books about quantative approach to fundamental investing: - What works on Wall Street - James O'Shaughnessy - Quantitative Value - Wesley Gray, Tobias Carlisle - Quantitative ...
5
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1answer
401 views

looking for regulations regarding stock symbol reuse in the US

in june 2009, GM has filed for bankruptcy. trading has moved from NYSE to OTC pink sheets, and the symbol changed to GMGMQ and later to MTLQQ. in november 2010 a new GM symbol started trading on NYSE. ...
5
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1answer
97 views

Bloomberg & R: Accessing multiple securities with getBars() in R

I am attempting to access 1 minute trade data for 50 securities using Bloomberg API (rblpapi). Following is the code I got from the CRAN: ...
5
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1answer
107 views

How to calculate Skulls Financial Turbulence for one asset?

I have just read this paper http://www.cfapubs.org/loi/doi/abs/10.2469/faj.v66.n5.3 In the paper they define financial turbulence formula as: Could anyone help me calculate/understand this ...
5
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3answers
2k views

Why are interest rates and stock prices positively correlated?

If I've been looking at graphs correctly, there is a strong positive correlation between stock prices (or P/B values) and interest rates over time, i.e. P/B values tend to be high when interest rates ...
5
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2answers
173 views

Economic contagion to individual stocks (ideas for analysis)

I'm doing my undergraduate thesis on firm-level contagion. Specifically I look at a measure of performance over a financial crisis (e.g. raw stock returns), then run cross-sectional regressions with ...
5
votes
3answers
2k views

How to normalize different instruments by volatility?

I'm trying to think on a way to normalize stocks to be on the same scale depending on their recent volatility. Is there some theoretical reference on the subject or and experience you can share?
4
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7answers
443 views

How is this financial product called?

I have only basic limited knowledge about financial derivatives and I did not find exactly what I was searching for. I found open end turbo call, knock outs, but I am searching for this: Underlying ...
4
votes
3answers
2k views

Does the debt load affect the volatility of equity?

Does the debt load of a company have an impact on the stock price of a company and its volatility? Also, how does the market react to the announcement of a company issuing bonds?
4
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3answers
554 views

Why should there be an equity risk premium?

After years of mathematical finance I am still not satisfied with the idea of a risk premium in the case of stocks. I agree that (often) there is a premium for long dated bonds, illiquid bonds or ...
4
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4answers
324 views

Why is the equity premium not arbitraged away?

The Equity Risk Premium Puzzle concerns the observation that equity returns are generally greater than bond returns. The puzzle is well known and widely studied, what is keeping investors from ...
4
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1answer
182 views

Why does regression capture differences in volatility?

I read the following statement in the book python for data analysis, chapter 11, and I was wondering if someone could give me intuition about why regression has this effect? The purpose of the ...
4
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3answers
412 views

How do I calculate approximate equity liquidity?

I am a developer rather than a quant. I need to decide whether a given equity passes some basic liquidity threshold. It doesn't have to be precise, just good enough. I have a Bloomberg terminal data ...
4
votes
1answer
272 views

Historical Financial Statement to Backtest in R

I would like to preface this by saying I am preparing for an upcoming internship this summer so I am extremely new to Quant Finance. At my university we have access to Datastream by Thomson Reuters ...
4
votes
2answers
178 views

Indexes/stocks with flat implied volatilities

After the 1987 crash, the S&P500 index implied volatility changed from nearly flat to negatively sloped. According to Rubinstein the Black-Scholes model was not so wrong when applied to the ...
4
votes
2answers
212 views

How do earnings estimates respond to changes in underlying fundamentals and economic conditions?

Sell-side analysts' earnings estimates for individual companies, typically reported by I/B/E/S, are a key ingredient to many quantitative models. However, revisions to analyst estimates tend to lag ...
4
votes
2answers
272 views

Data exported from Capital IQ, FactSet, Bloomberg, Compustat

I'm looking for reliable data on US equity fundamentals, but not sure which vendor provides these features: Unlimited data export Coverage of disbanded entities (bankruptcies, M&A) Financial ...
4
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1answer
745 views

Science behind options pricing into Earnings event

I am wondering about studies regarding the uncanny options pricing into public company's earnings reports. The phenomenon being that the price of a straddle before earnings costs near exactly the ...
4
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2answers
125 views

Estimating an appropriate haircut for illiquid stocks

I am trying to determine an appropriate haircut for a basket of illiquid stocks that barely traded during the year. Can someone suggest me an approach to estimate the risk? My dataset has a lot of ...
4
votes
3answers
313 views

Determining optimal trading signals (buy/sell) from past data

Let's say we have a stock which our only actions are buy, sell and hold (with or without shorting). If we have sufficient past data of the stock, how can you determine the optimal trading action ...
4
votes
1answer
170 views

Statistical Power and Active Management

I was reading an article recently that pointed out the dangers of using statistical inference in evaluating active managers as the power of statistical tests diminishes with the variance of the ...
4
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1answer
16k views

How to calculate equally weighted market portfolio

There's two studies that test the same thing in different markets (i.e. they apply the identical methodology). They state: 1) "$R_{mt}$ is the equally weighted average stock return in the dual-listed ...
4
votes
1answer
473 views

What is the relative performance of hard-to-borrow securities?

Is there any research on the equity return performance of hard-to-borrow securities? Many shops will simply screen for hard-to-borrow and eliminate these names from their short book. Anecdotally, ...
4
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1answer
104 views

What are “Autoquotes”?

I'm reading a 2008 JoFMarkets paper by Shkilko et al. with title "Locked and crossed markets on NASDAQ and the NYSE" in which the authors investigate the determinants of locked and crossed markets. ...
4
votes
3answers
838 views

Where to find historical stock news and other events?

So, I am working on a strategy that has pin-pointed some very interesting events in the form of extremely low volatility. The phenomena spans the past few years and a wide variety of symbols. Now, to ...
4
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2answers
908 views

Cointegration trading: Ignoring pairs that aren't economically related

Cointegration trading question What's the state of the art when it comes to choosing proper subsets of stocks/assets where cointegrating relationships aren't ignored as (likely to be) spurious? For ...
4
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2answers
167 views

Nasdaq trading under the scenes: market makers, ECNs, brokers. Who buys from and sells to whom?

U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) defines market maker as: "A market maker is a firm that stands ready to buy and sell a particular stock on a regular and continuous basis at a publicly ...
4
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3answers
165 views

Positive VaR when calculation on Total Return Indexes?

I recently saw a VaR calculation, and I was wondering whether that calculation made sense. Here the details: 1. Construction of a total return bond portfolio index. By total return I mean that the ...