The calculated approximation of a result which is usable even if input data may be incomplete or uncertain.

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7
votes
2answers
695 views

Fitting a generalized logistic distribution

I have a process that estimates the parameters for the following function using the NL2SOL algorithm. $C-[\alpha+\frac{\beta-\alpha}{1+e^-\theta(y_t-\delta)} \vartriangle y_t]$ The process currently ...
2
votes
2answers
883 views

Should I use GARCH volatility or standard deviation in cross-sectional regression?

I want to do a cross-sectional study where the historical, medium-long run volatility of some return series (call it $R_t$) is included as a regressor. Which of the following two estimates of ...
4
votes
1answer
1k views

How do I estimate the parameters of an MA(q) process?

It is relatively easy to estimate the parameters of an autoregressive $AR(p)$ process. How do I do with a moving average $MA(q)$ process?
7
votes
1answer
393 views

What distribution should I apply to estimate the likelihood of extreme returns?

Say I have a limited sample, a month of daily returns, and I want to estimate the 99.5th percentile of the distribution of absolute daily returns. Because the estimate will require extrapolation, I ...
8
votes
1answer
798 views

Musiela parameterization

I have a question regarding the proof of the Musiela parametrization for the dynamics of the forward rate curve. If $T$ is the maturity, $\tau=T-t$ is the time to maturity, and $dF(t,T)$ defines the ...
6
votes
1answer
185 views

What tradeoff is there to using an accurate estimate with a large confidence interval?

I am working on calibrating a Heston model from simulated historical stock data. After obtaining an accurate estimate of the model parameters I found very large 95% confidence intervals for these ...
2
votes
1answer
134 views

How to reconstruct a discontinued economic time series such as the Fed's CP rate?

The old 3-Month Commercial Paper Rate (CP3M) on FRED was discontinued in 1997. I would like to reconstruct this series in a reasonable fashion, so I can use it to analyze more recent events. I was ...
6
votes
2answers
3k views

How can I estimate the degrees of freedom for a Student's T distribution?

I am doing research estimating the value at risk for non-normally distributed assets. I need help in the process of estimating the parameters of Student's t distribution and which method to use. I ...
15
votes
5answers
1k views

How to estimate the probability of drawdown / ruin?

A fairly naive approach to estimate the probability of drawdown / ruin is to calculate the probabilities of all the permutations of your sample returns, keeping track of those that hit your drawdown / ...