# Tagged Questions

The calculated approximation of a result which is usable even if input data may be incomplete or uncertain.

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### Relationship between in-sample and out-sample periods length

I have two general questions regarding "in-sample fitting vs. out-of-sample backtesting" kind of analyses. Is there any relationship between the length of the data collected for in-sample fitting ($a$)...
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### Package for multivariate Garch Vech model for R?

I`m new to programming and searching a package for R which inherents the estimation for a Vech Garch(1,1). This is a multivariate Garch model which forms the residuals and the covariance matrix from a ...
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### How are Quandl monthly S&P500 earnings estimates derived?

Can someone explain how the monthly earnings estimates are derived for S&P500? Quandl sources multpl.com, who state: ...
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### What is Estimation Risk - VAR Backtest

Simple Question. Can someone explain please: What is Estimation Risk in Value at Risk Backtesting
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### Do smaller horizons better estimate volatility for longer horizons than the longer horizons?

Suppose you want an estimate of the 20 day return variance. You could grab historical lagging 20 day windows to build an estimate, or you could build 10 day lagging windows (twice as many data points) ...
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### Modeling the distrubution of future swap rates

I'm interested in better understanding the unwind cost/value of a swap at various points in the future. Suppose that we have entered a 7Y swap (paying fixed) and want to understand the unwind cost/...
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### is mean and variance sufficient to determine the following question?

consider this question: I want to buy AAPL, and I could buy it from 3 brokers. I have their historical quote. Is there any statistic other than mean and variance I could use to determine if one broker ...
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### Measure difference between estimations and historic returns

For every day in a year, I have the return on an asset and the CAPM estimation for the return. I want to measure the average difference between the set of returns and set of estimations. So far, I ...
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### What kind of errors arise when I fit ARMA(1,1) to data generated from ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) process?

As far as I know estimates of parameters of ARMA(1,1) are asymptotically optimal when fitted to data from ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) process, and only their variance increase, so when we assume large ...
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### Parametric/Analytical VaR

Suppose I want to calculate VaR for a known distribution with mean $\mu$, variance $\sigma^2$ and $\alpha$-quantile as, $VaR_{\alpha}$ = $\mu + \sigma q_{\alpha}$. For a Gaussian distribution it is ...
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### What good papers of short term (<30 seconds) volatility estimation [duplicate]

I am looking for good papers of short term (<30 sec) volatility estimation AND short term volatility forecasting. Do you have something in mind ?
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### Where to get analysts' earnings estimates data? [duplicate]

I know thomsonreuters provide analysts' earnings estimates data. Is there any sources I could get it for free? For example, this website has analysts' earnings data. What's the source of this and how ...
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### How to account for market movement when some exchanges are closed?

Daily data, such as open and close prices, is often available for much longer periods than high-frequency data. However, whenever backtesting any strategy that examines instruments traded in different ...
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### Where can I find historical data for volatility estimation?

I'm trying to estimate volatility following Shreve book, so I need observations of $f(t_j,t_j+\tau_k)$ and $f(t_j+\delta,t_j+\tau_k)$, where $t_J<t_{J-1}<\dots<0$ and $\tau_k$ are relative ...
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### What nonparametric methods exist for estimating intraday seasonalities?

What nonparametric "Model Free" methods exist to measure intraday seasonality? I would like to estimate intraday seasonality in any of The volatility The traded volume The bid ask spread or ...
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### What are the estimation methods for SV models?

I want to know about some methods like Methods-of-Moments, Quasi-Maximum Likelihood method, Baysian methods using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Is there any reference to have an idea of these ...
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### Derivation of a ML estimator

I have the following likelihood function: I'm given this information about the $\Omega$ matrix ($\boldsymbol{1}$ is a $T \times 1$ vector of ones): I would like to be able to show that the ...
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### How to use a realized kernel?

I've read that realized kernels are the thing to use for calculating daily volatility from high-frequency data. So I've got minute data, how do I actually use such a kernel? Will it give me minute-ly ...
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### Derivation of variance of Zhou (1996) volatility estimator

Does anyone know how to derive the Variance of Bin Zhou's volatility estimator (Theorem 1) in 'High-Frequency Data and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Rates' (1996) Zhou 1996 Any help would be ...
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### Estimation of Empirical Expected Shortfall of a heavy tailed distribution

Assume that you have a portfolio for which you have estimated a parametric model to the underlying instruments, but the distribution of the portfolio as a whole is too complicated to compute ...
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### What is the realized volatility's estimation error?

Given an estimation procedure and real data, how would one compute the mean squared error? What value represents the "true" realized volatility in the case of calculating the Mean Squared Error in ...
It is a usual practice to calculate realized volatility $\sigma$ using the square root of the usual variance estimator $\hat{{\sigma}²}$. This is done using the stock log returns (practitioners ...