The calculated approximation of a result which is usable even if input data may be incomplete or uncertain.
13
votes
4answers
1k views
What methods do you use to improve expected return estimates when constructing a portfolio in a mean-variance framework?
One of the main problems when trying to apply mean-variance portfolio optimization in practice is its high input sensitivity. As can be seen in (Chopra, 1993) using historical values to estimate ...
17
votes
2answers
713 views
Tools in R for estimating time-varying copulas?
Are there libraries in R for estimating time-varying joint distributions via copulas?
Hedibert Lopes has an excellent paper on the topic here. I know there is an existing packaged called copula but ...
14
votes
5answers
906 views
How to estimate the probability of drawdown / ruin?
A fairly naive approach to estimate the probability of drawdown / ruin is to calculate the probabilities of all the permutations of your sample returns, keeping track of those that hit your drawdown / ...
6
votes
1answer
315 views
What distribution should I apply to estimate the likelihood of extreme returns?
Say I have a limited sample, a month of daily returns, and I want to estimate the 99.5th percentile of the distribution of absolute daily returns.
Because the estimate will require extrapolation, I ...
