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19
votes
6answers
2k views

Most successful investors using academic-based framework?

What are the most famous/best performing absolute-return funds employing approaches based on mainstream finance theory (i.e., theory presented in Journal of Finance, AER, Econometrica, using typically ...
13
votes
2answers
491 views

Variable Selection in factor models

Let's say you have a dependent variable and many independent variables. What are the preferred metrics for sorting and selecting variables based on explanatory power? Let's say you are not concerned ...
11
votes
3answers
2k views

Why do expected return models and risk models use different factors?

This is a question responding to weekly topic challenge. I happen to see an interesting question from SYMMYS by Michael Kapler. I always approached expected return and risk modeling as separate ...
10
votes
1answer
542 views

Meta-view of different time-series similarity measures?

While I spend most of my StackExchange time on MathematicaSE, I'm in the business and follow the questions and answers on this site with great interest. Recently questions like the following (and ...
10
votes
1answer
3k views

Which approach to estimating fundamental factor models is better, cross-sectional (unobservable) factors or time-series (observable) factors?

There are many approaches to estimating fundamental factor equity models. I would like to focus on two traditional methods: The time-series regression approach of Fama and French. Factors are ...
8
votes
4answers
2k views

How to perform risk factor calculation?

I am studying Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) and I have a question about calculating factor exposures. Assume: \begin{equation} r = \beta_1r_1 + \beta_2r_2 + ... + \beta_kr_k + r_e \end{equation} ...
8
votes
1answer
552 views

Fama-French 3-factor model: factors implying risk

The Fama-French three-factor risk model is given by $$ r=R_f+\beta_m(K_m-R_f) + \beta_s\cdot\mathit{SMB}+\beta_v\cdot\mathit{HML}+\alpha $$ where $r$ is the return, $R_f$ is the risk-free rate, $K_m$ ...
8
votes
4answers
3k views

R: Fast and efficient way of running a multivariate regression across a (really) large panel (First pass of Fama MacBeth)

I am attempting to run a rolling multivariate regression (14 explanatory variables) across a panel of 5000 stocks: For each of the 5000 stocks, I run 284 regressions (by rolling over my sample ...
8
votes
1answer
471 views

Has any research used Bayesian networks to estimate risk factor betas?

Is there any published research on estimating the beta of a security with respect to one or more risk factors via Bayesian networks? I'd like to see if this is a promising angle of research.
7
votes
4answers
819 views

Multi Factor Credit Risk Models

I am working in the area of building credit risk models. Upto this point, the model I have been focused on using the Asymptotic Single Factor Model, more popularly known as Vasicek Single Factor ...
6
votes
1answer
953 views

What are the steps to perform properly a risk factor analysis on a portfolio?

I have been asked to perform a factor analysis on a given portfolio, assume it's a Swiss portfolio in CHF. First step, I chose which factors I would like to see in my analysis. The first factors I ...
6
votes
2answers
384 views

The T+H Problem in Factor model forecasts

Suppose we train on M individuals consisting of T observations (i.e. TxM design matrix). The dependent variable is one-year return for each security (H = horizon of one year). In a factor model ...
6
votes
3answers
545 views

Testing the validity of a factor model for stock returns

Consider the following m regression equation system: $$r^i = X^i \beta^i + \epsilon^i \;\;\; \text{for} \;i=1,2,3,..,n$$ where $r^i$ is a $(T\times 1)$ vector of the T observations of the dependent ...
5
votes
3answers
680 views

What is Quantitative Investing and how does it differ from Quantitative Trading?

I have worked in quantitative trading for a couple of years so I know what that space is about. I am curious to know what quantitative investing is all about. Based on what I have read and talked to ...
5
votes
2answers
257 views

Non-negative matrix factorization for factor analysis of stocks

I stumbled over the term Non-negative matrix factorization in presentations such as Application of Machine Learning to Finance and this Big Data in Asset Management. The basic idea is to decompose a ...
4
votes
3answers
268 views

Why are factor models so popular for risk analysis of portfolios?

As titled, my question consists on asking for why in the most of academic papers one almost always finds that when you try to model asset returns, one needs to adjust for risk factors before analyzing ...
4
votes
2answers
56 views

Distinction between “risk factor” and “market anomaly”

What are some of the general rules to decide whether a particular factor is a "risk factor" or "anomaly?" Naively speaking, can't you put any anomaly factor on the right-hand-side of the regression ...
4
votes
0answers
230 views

Optimization: Factor model versus asset-by-asset model

In portfolio management one often has to solve problems of the quadratic form $$ w^T \Sigma w + w^T c \rightarrow Min $$ with portfolio weights $w \in \mathbb{R}^N$ a constant $c \in \mathbb{R}^N$ and ...
3
votes
2answers
298 views

Why use market capitalization weighted index over PCA?

Why is it so popular to use market capitalization weighted indices instead of taking the first principle component that explains the most variation of the constituents? I haven't yet seen an academic ...
3
votes
2answers
139 views

Factor model assumptions

I was reading on Factor Models in the book Quantitative Risk Management by McNeil, et al. In section 3.4.1 they introduce a linear factor model $$X = a + BF + \epsilon,$$ where $X \in R^d$, $F \in ...
3
votes
2answers
135 views

Factor Model - Minimum Variance Portfolio [Complete Proof]

Can someone check my proof? I think there is something not quite right. I have found limited resources online for this as well so I think it might benefit others to get this on the internet. Assume ...
3
votes
1answer
117 views

factor models and using cross section regression

I have been doing some reading on factor models. In the literature it mentions that when creating a portfolio that maximises particular attributes it may lead to unwanted bias to other factors. I ...
3
votes
1answer
63 views

Recommended Literature for creating Factor Mimicking Portfolios

Is there a textbook that contains the basics for creating Factor Mimicking Portfolios? Although there is a lot of peer-reviewed literature on this, I cannot find textbooks on Asset Pricing that ...
3
votes
0answers
433 views

Testing Valuation, Size and Momentum (proprietary factors) from 1988-2013: No evidence of driving cross-sectional returns

I am currently testing whether three proprietary factors - Valuation, Size and Momentum - explain cross-sectional returns. A sample of 3000 securities was tested using Fama-MacBeth two-pass ...
3
votes
0answers
240 views

Quant/Stat Factor Performance Website/Distribution?

Does anyone know of a decent quant/stat factor website, distribution(public or private) or publication that tracks performance of "many" of traditional quant/stat factors? By that I mean would show ...
3
votes
0answers
95 views

Estimating two normal random numbers with one equation

Subtitle: Estimating the correlation of the shocks driving two commodities in two multi-factor models I am fitting two 2-factor models to electricity and gas futures, respectively. In order to ...
2
votes
2answers
464 views

Does Fama French Three Factor Model Work out of Sample (after 1993)?

Does anyone know if the Fama-French three factor model has been re-examined empirically after 1993, when the original paper was first published? I am asking because there seems to be considerable ...
2
votes
1answer
74 views

How to get real-time data for Fama-French model?

For Fama-French model we need SMB (small[market cap] minus big) and HML (high[book-to-market-ratio] minis low). I want to ...
2
votes
1answer
131 views

Why is two-factor model so popular for bond futures?

Given that which bond in the basket becomes CTD depends massively on idiosyncratic moves among different bonds, should we not be always using N factor model instead of 2 Factor model? By using only ...
2
votes
4answers
407 views

Robust Returns-Based Style Analysis

Sharpe's Return-Based Style Analysis is an interesting theory but flawed in practice when working with long-short funds or funds that are changing strategies over shorter periods of time due to the ...
2
votes
1answer
193 views

Combining covariances?

Consider an economy with assets with return processes $A$, $B$, $C$, $D$. Consider a weighted index with return process $I=aA + bB + cC + dD$ where $a,b,c,d$ are coefficients, and $a+b+c+d = 1$. ...
2
votes
0answers
49 views

What is the main reasons to use Miltersen & Schartz (1998) model for commodity futures options

versus a standard Generalised Black and Scholes model (if there are any?) I have read the paper but I am not to sure about its practical implications as would people with more experience using this ...
2
votes
0answers
287 views

Is this methodology to calculate Alpha using multi-factor regression model correct?

I am trying to find out Historical Alphas of a bunch of fund returns ${F_i}$ by Using Regression Model$(stepwise)$ with regressors as its underlying exposure-returns(risk-free rate subtracted) i.e. ...
2
votes
0answers
114 views

Industry factors without GICS

I'm working through the Quantitative Equity Portfolio Management book by Chincarini and Kim. I'd like to build a basic industry-based fundamental factor model. As this is a pet project for ...
1
vote
1answer
218 views

Given a correlation martrix, calculate portfolio's correlation with its assets

Find correlation vector like $[ d e f ]$ where d, e and f represent correlation of P(portfolio) with its assets A, B and C respectively. The assets A, B, C can be another portfolio. In order for ...
1
vote
2answers
305 views

Optimizing Principal Component factor weightings over time

I was given the returns of a cross-asset class portfolio of ETFs and I conducted PCA to obtain factors on dates from T-n, T-3, T-2,..., T. What I would like to do is decompose the market moves from ...
1
vote
1answer
250 views

How to use financial ratios in a factor model?

I am trying to understand how factor loadings in a general factor model are computed. For simplicity sake, lets assume a simple model: $$ R = B \times F + \epsilon $$ $$ R = N \times 1 $$ $$ B = N ...
1
vote
0answers
57 views

Variable Selection with Kalman Filter

I'm trying to estimate factor loadings on portfolios over time for portfolios that are traded pretty frequently. I have a sense that several portfolios are loading on the Fama-French HML factor ...
1
vote
0answers
66 views

Neglect the positive values in negative interest rates modelling?

The magnitude of the negative interested rate should vary correlated with the increase in fixed assets prices and with cross-currency basis spreads. Could their volatility / correlation ...
0
votes
1answer
187 views

Missing factor in the factor model

I am developing a factor model to predict monthly returns. One of the factors alone accounts for an R squared of 0.3 to 0.4 for many single periods that has surprised me. However, for some periods ...
0
votes
2answers
217 views

How can I calculate Fama-French betas for a particular stock?

For a particular stock, what's the simplest way to calculate betas for the Fama-French factors SMB and HML?
0
votes
0answers
12 views

Applying the Bayesian Information Criterion for Stepwise Selection Algorithms on Time Series [migrated]

The title sounds rather complicated for fairly simple statistics issue. I've created a factor model that tests adding additional factors by checking if the improvement in the mean squared error ...
0
votes
0answers
42 views

risk report factor exposures calculations

I am looking at a risk report which I have inherited. There are 5 lines of code that I want to make sure I understand. The risk report breaks down the exposures, contribution to variance and marginal ...
0
votes
0answers
55 views

multi factor equity model exposures not as expected

I'm researching an equity multi factor model. It contains three factors, say A, B & C. The factors are weighted as such, ...