Econometric model that have the purpose to measure the effect of different risk measures on portfolio asset returns.

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22
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6answers
3k views

Most successful investors using academic-based framework?

What are the most famous/best performing absolute-return funds employing approaches based on mainstream finance theory (i.e., theory presented in Journal of Finance, AER, Econometrica, using typically ...
16
votes
3answers
3k views

Please give a step-by-step explanation on how to build a factor model

Factor models such as Fama-French or the other ones that are partially summarized here work on the cross-section of asset returns. How are the factors built, how are sensitivities/coefficients ...
15
votes
4answers
628 views

Variable Selection in factor models

Let's say you have a dependent variable and many independent variables. What are the preferred metrics for sorting and selecting variables based on explanatory power? Let's say you are not concerned ...
14
votes
1answer
5k views

Which approach to estimating fundamental factor models is better, cross-sectional (unobservable) factors or time-series (observable) factors?

There are many approaches to estimating fundamental factor equity models. I would like to focus on two traditional methods: The time-series regression approach of Fama and French. Factors are ...
12
votes
3answers
2k views

Why do expected return models and risk models use different factors?

This is a question responding to weekly topic challenge. I happen to see an interesting question from SYMMYS by Michael Kapler. I always approached expected return and risk modeling as separate ...
12
votes
4answers
6k views

R: Fast and efficient way of running a multivariate regression across a (really) large panel (First pass of Fama MacBeth)

I am attempting to run a rolling multivariate regression (14 explanatory variables) across a panel of 5000 stocks: For each of the 5000 stocks, I run 284 regressions (by rolling over my sample ...
12
votes
1answer
660 views

Meta-view of different time-series similarity measures?

While I spend most of my StackExchange time on MathematicaSE, I'm in the business and follow the questions and answers on this site with great interest. Recently questions like the following (and ...
12
votes
1answer
595 views

Has any research used Bayesian networks to estimate risk factor betas?

Is there any published research on estimating the beta of a security with respect to one or more risk factors via Bayesian networks? I'd like to see if this is a promising angle of research.
8
votes
4answers
2k views

How to perform risk factor calculation?

I am studying Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) and I have a question about calculating factor exposures. Assume: \begin{equation} r = \beta_1r_1 + \beta_2r_2 + ... + \beta_kr_k + r_e \end{equation} ...
8
votes
1answer
2k views

What are the steps to perform properly a risk factor analysis on a portfolio?

I have been asked to perform a factor analysis on a given portfolio, assume it's a Swiss portfolio in CHF. First step, I chose which factors I would like to see in my analysis. The first factors I ...
8
votes
1answer
746 views

Fama-French 3-factor model: factors implying risk

The Fama-French three-factor risk model is given by $$ r=R_f+\beta_m(K_m-R_f) + \beta_s\cdot\mathit{SMB}+\beta_v\cdot\mathit{HML}+\alpha $$ where $r$ is the return, $R_f$ is the risk-free rate, $K_m$ ...
8
votes
2answers
428 views

The T+H Problem in Factor model forecasts

Suppose we train on M individuals consisting of T observations (i.e. TxM design matrix). The dependent variable is one-year return for each security (H = horizon of one year). In a factor model ...
8
votes
1answer
1k views

How to test the 5 Factor CAPM of Fama & French (2014)?

I would like to conduct a study testing the 5 factor CAPM, using UK stocks. Does anyone have any suggestions of how I can do this? Could this task be as simple as regressing average returns for a ...
8
votes
4answers
1k views

Multi Factor Credit Risk Models

I am working in the area of building credit risk models. Upto this point, the model I have been focused on using the Asymptotic Single Factor Model, more popularly known as Vasicek Single Factor ...
8
votes
0answers
681 views

Testing Valuation, Size and Momentum (proprietary factors) from 1988-2013: No evidence of driving cross-sectional returns

I am currently testing whether three proprietary factors - Valuation, Size and Momentum - explain cross-sectional returns. A sample of 3000 securities was tested using Fama-MacBeth two-pass ...
6
votes
3answers
633 views

Testing the validity of a factor model for stock returns

Consider the following m regression equation system: $$r^i = X^i \beta^i + \epsilon^i \;\;\; \text{for} \;i=1,2,3,..,n$$ where $r^i$ is a $(T\times 1)$ vector of the T observations of the dependent ...
6
votes
2answers
537 views

How to interpret the French-Fama SMB factor?

I regressed ten portfolios on the Fama French factors and get significant loadings on the SMB factor. However, if I look at the actual average market cap of these portfolios, the portfolios with the ...
6
votes
2answers
570 views

Non-negative matrix factorization for factor analysis of stocks

I stumbled over the term Non-negative matrix factorization in presentations such as Application of Machine Learning to Finance and this Big Data in Asset Management. The basic idea is to decompose a ...
6
votes
0answers
321 views

Optimization: Factor model versus asset-by-asset model

In portfolio management one often has to solve problems of the quadratic form $$ w^T \Sigma w + w^T c \rightarrow Min $$ with portfolio weights $w \in \mathbb{R}^N$ a constant $c \in \mathbb{R}^N$ and ...
5
votes
2answers
214 views

Distinction between “risk factor” and “market anomaly”

What are some of the general rules to decide whether a particular factor is a "risk factor" or "anomaly?" Naively speaking, can't you put any anomaly factor on the right-hand-side of the regression ...
5
votes
3answers
2k views

What is Quantitative Investing and how does it differ from Quantitative Trading?

I have worked in quantitative trading for a couple of years so I know what that space is about. I am curious to know what quantitative investing is all about. Based on what I have read and talked to ...
5
votes
0answers
108 views

Why is Weighted Least Squares necessary in fundamental factor model?

Why is Weighted Least Squares necessary in fundamental factor model while it is not in a standard Macroeconomic factor model? I understand that $\mathbb{E}[\epsilon^2_{it}]=\sigma_i^2$ varies across ...
4
votes
3answers
426 views

Why are factor models so popular for risk analysis of portfolios?

As titled, my question consists on asking for why in the most of academic papers one almost always finds that when you try to model asset returns, one needs to adjust for risk factors before analyzing ...
4
votes
2answers
293 views

Factor model assumptions

I was reading on Factor Models in the book Quantitative Risk Management by McNeil, et al. In section 3.4.1 they introduce a linear factor model $$X = a + BF + \epsilon,$$ where $X \in R^d$, $F \in ...
4
votes
2answers
368 views

Factor Model - Minimum Variance Portfolio [Complete Proof]

Can someone check my proof? I think there is something not quite right. I have found limited resources online for this as well so I think it might benefit others to get this on the internet. Assume ...
4
votes
1answer
325 views

Why is two-factor model so popular for bond futures?

Given that which bond in the basket becomes CTD depends massively on idiosyncratic moves among different bonds, should we not be always using N factor model instead of 2 Factor model? By using only ...
4
votes
1answer
289 views

factor models and using cross section regression

I have been doing some reading on factor models. In the literature it mentions that when creating a portfolio that maximises particular attributes it may lead to unwanted bias to other factors. I ...
4
votes
1answer
90 views

Where to find daily European value factor data?

Kenneth R. French website only provides monthly European factor data. I want to track this data daily. Here's what I tried: MSCI Europe Barra Value Index - it's long short 130/30, not 100/100. ...
4
votes
1answer
63 views

Fama-French Factors in €

I am having a bit of a problem with currency conversion issues. What I do: I sort European stocks based on their book-to-market ratio, each year I form a portfolio (equal-weight) with the 10 stocks ...
4
votes
1answer
76 views

How do you model yield curves for interest rates that have hardly moved?

I have a model which I use to simulate future yield curves. The model uses some standard concepts, like PCA and ARMA models, and it creates some nice-looking yield curves. The simulated curves are ...
4
votes
1answer
100 views

volatility factor

I am trying to add a volatility factor to Fama-French factor model. Does anybody know of a source where I can get data for "volatility mimicking factor" or suggest a simple methodology for ...
4
votes
0answers
412 views

Is this methodology to calculate Alpha using multi-factor regression model correct?

I am trying to find out Historical Alphas of a bunch of fund returns ${F_i}$ by Using Regression Model$(stepwise)$ with regressors as its underlying exposure-returns(risk-free rate subtracted) i.e. ...
4
votes
0answers
305 views

Quant/Stat Factor Performance Website/Distribution?

Does anyone know of a decent quant/stat factor website, distribution(public or private) or publication that tracks performance of "many" of traditional quant/stat factors? By that I mean would show ...
4
votes
0answers
152 views

Industry factors without GICS

I'm working through the Quantitative Equity Portfolio Management book by Chincarini and Kim. I'd like to build a basic industry-based fundamental factor model. As this is a pet project for ...
4
votes
0answers
105 views

Estimating two normal random numbers with one equation

Subtitle: Estimating the correlation of the shocks driving two commodities in two multi-factor models I am fitting two 2-factor models to electricity and gas futures, respectively. In order to ...
3
votes
2answers
344 views

Why use market capitalization weighted index over PCA?

Why is it so popular to use market capitalization weighted indices instead of taking the first principle component that explains the most variation of the constituents? I haven't yet seen an academic ...
3
votes
2answers
331 views

What are the main market anomalies/inefficiencies detected in quantitative finance?

I wondered about the existence of a complete list of the anomalies detected in quantitative finance. Generally, a market anomaly or inefficiency is a asset price and/or rate of return distortion on a ...
3
votes
1answer
83 views

Estimate market risk premium?

There are uncountably many factor models to estimate stock returns, such as CAPM, Fama-French, Carhart-Momentum, APT etc. Which models can estimate the market (index) return? I found only three ...
3
votes
1answer
177 views

Recommended Literature for creating Factor Mimicking Portfolios

Is there a textbook that contains the basics for creating Factor Mimicking Portfolios? Although there is a lot of peer-reviewed literature on this, I cannot find textbooks on Asset Pricing that ...
3
votes
2answers
665 views

What's the meaning of the intercept in asset pricing model?

I would like to understand the role of alpha (intercept) in the regression-based asset pricing model or $n$-factor models; one of the most famous of those one is the Fama-French 3-factor model. ...
3
votes
4answers
816 views

Robust Returns-Based Style Analysis

Sharpe's Return-Based Style Analysis is an interesting theory but flawed in practice when working with long-short funds or funds that are changing strategies over shorter periods of time due to the ...
3
votes
1answer
29 views

Calculating ex ante returns & probability of a negative return over some horizon

One way to go on about this is to parametrically calculate the returns, i.e. hold the exposure constant and backtest against the factor changes over that horizon. This is not forward looking per se ...
3
votes
0answers
44 views

Interpreting different factor models w.r.t. correlation matrix and min variance portfolio weights

Background In Eric Zivot's analysis of factor models he uses three models The sample (.sample) Single index model (.si) Barra factor industry model (.ind) PCA model (.pca) You can download his ...
3
votes
0answers
41 views

Estimating factor returns with linearly dependent loadings

Given an $n\times 1$ vector of asset returns $r$, and a $n\times k$ matrix of factor loadings $X$, we can express the asset returns in terms of as-yet-unknown factors $f$ using $$ r = Xf + \epsilon ...
3
votes
0answers
20 views

Why should a factor not priced and yet is relevant to the return generating process

I am reading Elton's AFA presidential adress article here. http://people.stern.nyu.edu/eelton/working_papers/Expected_Return_Realized_Return.pdf In the paper, he is warning against using the average ...
2
votes
2answers
723 views

Does Fama French Three Factor Model Work out of Sample (after 1993)?

Does anyone know if the Fama-French three factor model has been re-examined empirically after 1993, when the original paper was first published? I am asking because there seems to be considerable ...
2
votes
2answers
178 views

Transforming Variables in Regression

I have a very simple problem that hopefully someone could help me with or at least point me in the right direction. I am testing to see which factors affect index returns the most and would like to ...
2
votes
1answer
216 views

Missing factor in the factor model

I am developing a factor model to predict monthly returns. One of the factors alone accounts for an R squared of 0.3 to 0.4 for many single periods that has surprised me. However, for some periods ...
2
votes
1answer
1k views

How to get real-time data for Fama-French model?

For Fama-French model we need SMB (small[market cap] minus big) and HML (high[book-to-market-ratio] minis low). I want to ...
2
votes
2answers
66 views

Best practice for international Fama-French analysis

First I have to admit that I have never been really good at thinking about the implications of investments in different currencies. I don't know why but it makes my head spin, this is why I am no FX ...