Reworded the question for clarity (see edits for original post): How can one knowingly foresee where a 50/50 prediction model will be profitable? For previous posts: I understand that if I have a ...
In technical analysis, we may use confluence of direction for 3 timeframes to roughly gauge bias of market now. Similarly, if we use time series forecasting methods to predict(say daily data-whether ...
I was wondering if this mean(160)-reverting/oscillatory time series "SUM" can be considered chaotic & forecastable to some extend short-term? ...
Suppose we train on M individuals consisting of T observations (i.e. TxM design matrix). The dependent variable is one-year return for each security (H = horizon of one year). In a factor model ...
Suppose I want to build a linear regression to see if returns of one stock can predict returns of another. For example, let's say I want to see if the VIX return on day X is predictive of the S&P ...
Is there any published research of decent quality linking news or unstructured information to asset returns? I know that Thomson Reuters offers its Machine Readable news (MRN), so somebody must use ...