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3
votes
1answer
532 views

Rolling GARCH and higher moments

I m recently doing my dissertation and faced with problem in estimation basic rolling GARCh (1,1) process. I have 2500 observation and need to forecast 1 day ahead volatility in rolling form. I will ...
6
votes
2answers
856 views

How do I replicate John Hussman's recession forecasting methodology?

John Hussman has a recession forecasting methodology he often posts about on his blog, and I am trying to replicate it using publicly available data. I would like to assess his accuracy in predicting ...
8
votes
1answer
512 views

What methods do I need to learn in order forecast asset price movements?

What are the standard models used to forecast asset price movements? For example, if I were to trade an option, what model would I use in conjunction with option pricing models to forecast the stock ...
7
votes
4answers
1k views

Can the futures market's open interest predict commodity, treasury, and equity returns?

I came across this article and became curious. Can the futures market's open interest really predict market action?
12
votes
4answers
2k views

How do you evaluate a covariance forecast?

Suppose you have two sources of covariance forecasts on a fixed set of $n$ assets, method A and method B (you can think of them as black box forecasts, from two vendors, say), which are known to be ...
6
votes
1answer
540 views

What are the ensemble techniques to forecast returns?

It was pointed in an other question that ensemble methods can help to reduce curve fitting. What are your experience with these and which one seems the most appropriate? If I had two forecasters that ...
14
votes
2answers
2k views

What type of analysis is appropriate for assessing the performance time-series forecasts?

When using time-series analysis to forecast some type of value, what types of error analysis are worth considering when trying to determine which models are appropriate. One of the big issues that ...