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515 views

Moving window forecasting in Python

I am looking to create some code that will out-of-sample forecast the HAR-RV model. The model itself is formulated as the following, and the betas are estimated through HAC-OLS or Newey-West. ...
91 views

Starting values for constrOptim() in R

I want to perform a constraint optimization for Maximum Likelihood Estimation in R to forecast volatility of returns. The probleme is that my initial values aren't in the permitted region. Is there ...
23 views

Data of Credit Migration Matrices

Please advise that how to get the data of credit migration matrices There is a paper of credit migration matrices, I would import the data to Matlab or R for credit analysis. https://www....
295 views

How to forecast high-frequency data?

Introduction: I have seen a plenty of articles/books regarding volatility forecasting applied to high frequency data, but none of them were dedicated to forecasting the actual prices (for example bid/...
173 views

Rolling window Kendall's tau against APARCH(1,1) correlation

Assume you want to forecast the correlation matrix of a stocks' basket (say 15 ~ 20 stocks from different sectors); assume you need to forecast at $T$ days because you will use the forecast ouput with ...
62 views

Risk neutral probability and forecasting

When our goal is pricing of derivative products we, due to no arbitrage conditions, have to use the risk neutral probability. In other side if we have risk management purpose we have to use the “...
204 views

Forecast of ARMA-GARCH model in R

I managed to forecast a GARCH model yesterday and run a Monte Carlo simulation on R. Nevertheless, I can't do the same with an ARMA-GARCH. I tested 4 different method but without achieving an ARMA-...
290 views

GARCH modelling and forecasting

I have a few questions regarding GARCH modelling and forecasting and it would be great if someone could help me. I am modelling the log return of oil spot prices using various GARCH models: GARCH, ...
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Non-overlapping ranges of HCNN' observables and of state transition function

In the artcicle Forecasting and Trading the High-Low Range of Stocks and ETFs with Neural Networks HCNN is used for forecasting of nine time-series, namely: returns of the lows returns of the highs ...
201 views

Stationarity tests in the frequency domain for regression

Strict stationarity is the strongest form of stationarity. It means that the joint statistical distribution of any collection of the time series variates never depends on time. So, the mean, variance ...
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Relationship between in-sample and out-sample periods length

I have two general questions regarding "in-sample fitting vs. out-of-sample backtesting" kind of analyses. Is there any relationship between the length of the data collected for in-sample fitting ($a$)...
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Forecasting conditional returns in DCC-GARCH-copula approach in R

anyone who could help me interpreting and modifying this code? I have a dataset and want to reserve the last 100 returns for out-of-sample analysis. After specifying and fitting the garch-spd-copula, ...
6 views

What are appropriate algorithms for forecasting contract schedules to maximize profit?

Imagine a situation where a business negotiates contracts for the maintenance of widgets it sells. Situation Customer buys 20 widgets. Customer negotiates contract for widgets to be serviced/...
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Relative merits of Adjusted versus Closing prices for market predictions

Basic question I am familiar with the data returned from Yahoo. For indices and the like (e.g. ETFs) there are seven columns of data: Date, Open, High, Low, Close, Volume, Adjusted. We only need ...
19 views

Reconciling forecasted growth of components and sum

I'm working with a very basic basic forecast model using Compound Annual Growth Rate and I need to reconcile the forecasts at different levels of detail. Suppose I have two business lines with ...
57 views

Cross-sectional moments

I got a seminar topic named Forecasting risk from cross sectional moments? Could at least someone tell me what should I write about and if there is any paper that I could read. Thank you very much in ...
475 views

Oscillatory time-series forecasting

I was wondering if this mean(160)-reverting/oscillatory time series "SUM" can be considered chaotic & forecastable to some extend short-term? http://sg.myfreepost.com/sgTOTO_analysispower.php?...
218 views

Modeling asset performance to Bitcoin revenue

I'm attempting to model asset performance to Bitcoin revenue, which is a driving force in the Bitcoin community. Question Is there any model, or research being done that tracks "hashes per second" (...
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Is my demand prediction too low?

Hi i have a problem right now at work. For certian business segments,some sales target are establish each year. This targets are establish based on the managers feelings. Its like this: Manager: "so ...