Questions about futures contracts

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6
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1answer
8k views

The difference between Close price and Settelment Price for future contracts

What is the difference between Close price and Settlement Price for future contracts? Is there a defined rule for evaluating the settlement price or different rules are applied for each ...
4
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6answers
209 views

Data provider for daily futures settlement prices

Is there a data provider that has historical daily settlement prices for download? I'm interested in a provider that spans multiple exchanges.
6
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3answers
2k views

What continous adjustment methods are firms using for futures backtesting?

There are several methods available between data vendors and associated software programs to adjust futures contract data for historical simulations. Some of the methods are: 1) Back or forward ...
0
votes
0answers
49 views

Arrow-Debreu model

Consider an Arrow-Debreu market with $M = 2$ which consists of a bank account with interest rate $R = .01$ and a forward rate of a non-storable asset with maturity of one period. The futures price is ...
1
vote
1answer
39 views

Delta of a Commodity Future

Generally the price of a future is $ F(t,T) = S(t)e^{r(T-t)}, $ and it's delta is: $ \frac{\partial F}{\partial S} = e^{r(T-t)}. $ (As opposed to the delta of a forward which is always one.) In ...
1
vote
1answer
76 views

$E[F_T] = F_0$, $p = \frac{1-d}{u-d}$ --> Which implies which?

From Ch 12 in Hull's OFOD, we compute the risk-neutral probabilities for a futures contract: Later in Ch 17, futures options are valued, and we have the same result: In relation to ...
1
vote
1answer
25 views

How to get historical data for expired futures contracts in IbPy?

Does anyone know how to request historical data for futures contracts that have already expired in IbPy? There are plenty of examples for requesting historical data for example this post, however ...
0
votes
0answers
523 views

How to think about dollar volume in Eurodollar futures?

This is a very basic question: Computing the notional volume for futures contracts usually consists of something like: $$V_F = N \cdot P \cdot M \cdot FX$$ Where $V_F$ is the dollar volume of the ...
1
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0answers
70 views

VXV vs. VIX futures: arbitrage opportunities?

At a first glance, VXV and VIX futures should not be compared at all: VXV is an underlying index, whilst VIX futures are derivatives written on a different underlying index, that is, VIX. As ...
1
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1answer
74 views

QuantLib: New Instrument derived from VanillaOption + PricingEngine that must work for both VanillaOption and the derived class

The derived class is a Vanilla Option on a Future and I need to specify the expiry of the underlying future which is in general different (later) than the expiry of the Vanilla Option. I have ...
3
votes
2answers
89 views

Futures Parameters for Value at Risk

I am new to risk management. I am calculating the VaR for a portfolio of futures contracts, long and shorts. I calculated it using the historical, parametric, and ...
1
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1answer
38 views

nikkei 225 yen contract on the CME

This may be a silly question on futures trading, but I haven't found a clear answer on the CME website. For the Nikkei 225 Yen contract on the CME, which is denominated in Yen, the margin is also ...
1
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3answers
224 views

Best known performance of stock prediction algorithms

I asked this question here and was directed to answer it on this stack exchange. My question is very simple. What is the best [known] performance of a stock prediction algorithm? I've seen papers ...
4
votes
2answers
548 views

Options pricing exercise - American call option on a futures contract

I am confused by a particular exercise I am doing right now, I am hopeful that someone can walk me through as to how to solve it. I further hope the question is not considered too basic for this ...
1
vote
1answer
113 views

Broker or source of intraday futures data for a python API?

I am looking for a broker that offers a python API for downloading historical intraday data on futures. So far I have only seen Interactive Brokers and Tradestation. Are there some other brokers ...
3
votes
3answers
111 views

Why is the value of the VXX ETN always above short-term VIX futures prices?

If the VXX is simply a constant maturity weighted average of the 1st and 2nd month VIX futures prices, then why is its market price always larger than the maximum of the two? (the larger of the two is ...
1
vote
1answer
116 views

Conversion of SPY prices to ES prices

I have a system that I use intraday that works great on SPY. Due to the extra leverage available plus other benefits I am thinking about trading the system using ES. Is there a conversion factor ...
2
votes
1answer
38 views

How to retrieve and format futures data for use in regression/time series models?

I need to form a predictive time series model for monthly Brent crude oil spot price. I am looking to form 1-12 month ahead forecast horizons. There is a bounty of previous literature which uses ...
1
vote
4answers
127 views

What is wrong with this argument?

Futures trading in stock index gives leverage. Leverage cuts both ways. It can give you huge pct gains or wipe you out. Typically stock index futures for the major markets have limited daily pct ...
1
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0answers
40 views

What time do bond traders come into office in morning in New York? [closed]

When I worked on bond desk in we need to be there 8am est. Is this typical ? Seems late to me as some markets open 8am like the Canada bond futures. Treasuries futures open 820am. I work at hedge ...
9
votes
2answers
2k views

What is the basis risk between cash and futures government bonds?

I am currently working in a team responsible for maintaining a simple risk application for our bond desk and I am interested in knowing how to provide some sort of basic basis risk metric. Our desk ...
1
vote
0answers
63 views

Assets cointegration: optimal inventory for futures market

I'm interested in HFT cointegration stratagies, and recently found interesting article "Algorithmic Trading of Co-Integrated Assets" The article describes mean-reversion strategy for N-assets. ...
6
votes
2answers
161 views

Is spoofing financially risky?

It's alleged that Navinder Singh Sarao contributed to the flash crash by placing huge, fake, order for S&P Minis. Mr. Singh Sarao then cancelled the huge orders before they were filled. The ...
4
votes
0answers
58 views

Are there academic papers on the 'term structure' of adverse selection for futures and options?

By term structure I mean a non-stationarity in the pattern of intraday adverse selection as a given instruments approaches its expiry. Note that I am interested in the adverse selection on the ...
4
votes
1answer
60 views

When are ES E-mini future options issued?

Since options lose 2/3 of their time value in the second half of their lifespan, it makes sense to be aware of when an option was issued. What are ways of figuring out when ES futures options have ...
1
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2answers
65 views

put call parity for futures options derivation in Hull

In Hull, the following derivation of PCP for futures options: What confuses me is that it is stated that the payoff of the long futures is $F_t-F_0$. The footnote states: the analysis assumes that ...
1
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1answer
44 views

the cash flows behind closing out futures positions

I always get confused about the cashflows occurring when a futures position is closed out. For example, say it is January and I enter into a long December Futures position with a futures price F(jan). ...
1
vote
1answer
91 views

How to calculate returns and sharpe ratio for futures?

What is the industry standard way to calculate returns, which will be used to calculate sharpe ratio for e-mini S&P500?
2
votes
1answer
35 views

Futures Holiday Schedule

I am trying to find a place where I can get S&P Emini contract trading days. I would like to get the contract first appearance (September 9th 1997) until today. I can get Holidays but nothing ...
-2
votes
1answer
46 views

what is the cost for rolling 5 year german future?

im looking at the bobl future for september and for december and see 1.8 basis points difference. i wanted to know why there is this gap? and if im holding a position in september and want to roll it ...
1
vote
1answer
21 views

Source of market or security attribute information?

There are many securities and exchanges on platforms like Bloomberg and Quandl, but many securities are described with the relevant pit close times and pit open times, exchanges, related futures, and ...
5
votes
1answer
392 views

Do futures have predictive value?

Futures closely mirror their underlying, as can be seen in the charts below. Eventually, at expiration, they reach the value of the underlying. However, they seem to show no extra information about ...
1
vote
0answers
24 views

Historical UK Gilt 2-year and 5-year data

Data on the Medium (approx. 5-years) and Short (approx. 2-years) futures contract listed on ICE only goes back to 2009. Is anyone able to point me towards where I can get a longer time series, perhaps ...
4
votes
1answer
179 views

U.S. Rate Hike Prediction

In a recent ft.com video an analyst mentioned that markets postponed their Fed rate hike expectation from September to around November 2015 due to the CNY devaluation, based on the "shift" of some ...
3
votes
3answers
92 views

Why is the spot price not used as the forward price when a forward contract is created?

If the initial value of a forward contract is zero, surely the forward price used would be the spot price at the time the contract was created? However, my notes tell me that the forward price F, at ...
2
votes
1answer
67 views

Forward parity in fixed income

In stock and index we have a beautiful forward-spot parity $$ F(t,T) = S(t)\cdot B(t,T) \tag{1} $$ which tells us that to price a forward contract at time $t$ with expiry $T$ we can just borrow ...
6
votes
2answers
273 views

Value at Risk for Futures Contracts

I would like to know how you would compute Value at Risk on a portfolio of futures i.e rates futures, commodity futures and equity. How do you deal with the discontinuous form of commodity futures for ...
1
vote
2answers
58 views

how to convert notional to nominal of bond future to ctd bond

I want to know if you can easily convert a notional of a bond futures contract into the nominal of the ctd bond if you have the conversion factor. For example you have 1000 notional of a futures ...
7
votes
2answers
662 views

How does one estimate the probability of the Fed increasing its benchmark rate based on Fed funds futures?

How was this 67% probability calculated from Fed funds futures? Fed funds futures show a 67 percent chance the central bank will increase its benchmark rate by year-end from virtually zero, ...
2
votes
1answer
85 views

Understanding Quandl Futures Data

I'm interested in learning how to adjust my own futures contracts for analysis. Unfortunately my quantitative classes didn't really go into this, and I would like to learn it on my own. The methods ...
5
votes
2answers
132 views

Do futures follow physical or risk-neutral distributions

I've spent a while looking for an answer to this question and while I feel it is a simple question I have not found an answer. I know prices of option contracts follow an implied, risk-neutral ...
14
votes
4answers
4k views

Why is the VIX futures market usually in a state of contango?

I'm a VIX newbie and I'm trying to understand why the VIX futures market is usually in a state of contango. All I can figure is that the sellers of VIX futures contracts demand high "prices" (because ...
1
vote
0answers
32 views

order routing for a fill [closed]

Lets assume a FIFO rules in futures, I buy a contract and id like to sell it. Should I estimate the possibilite of orders on opposite side would be filled first? If I watch new orders incoming at new ...
2
votes
1answer
117 views

Where to get historical daily settlement price of each VSTOXX futures contract

I'm doing some analysis on VIX and VSTOXX futures and require historical prices of each contract as a result. VIX info is free to download on CBOE website: ...
6
votes
2answers
81 views

How to properly assess the costs of replicating an index via futures contracts?

I would like to validate this sentence, coming from a WSJ article: The cost of holding a Eurostoxx 50 future, for example, has climbed from an average of 0.07% of the contract value since 1998, ...
1
vote
2answers
143 views

How can index futures trade 24/7 when the index doesn't change?

I have read that the E-Mini S&P 500 Futures trade 24/7, how is that possible? I mean the underlying stocks which form the index are traded from 9:30am-4pm - so outside of these hours the S&P ...
8
votes
1answer
241 views

Pricing Treasury futures

I've recently learned that at the delivery of Treasury futures the short side can decide which of the $n$ Treasury bonds (with relevant maturities) to deliver. If the short side chooses to deliver the ...
2
votes
2answers
1k views

Historical Data on $/yen forward exchange rates

Would anyone happen to know where I can find historical forward exchange rate data between the yen and dollar?
2
votes
1answer
68 views

remove seasonality in future contracts

very new to commodities. I have raw agriculture future data, and I need to remove the seasonality (de-seasonalize) from the data, what is the general approach ? Thanks for the help!
4
votes
2answers
181 views

Futures fair value with spot in different currency

The fair value, $F$, for a futures contract is $ F = S(1+rt) - D,$ where $S$ is the underlying spot price, $r$ is the interest rate, $t$ is the time to maturity, and $D$ is the dividends. What is ...