Questions about futures contracts

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1answer
17 views

Where to get historical daily settlement price of each VSTOXX futures contract

I'm doing some analysis on VIX and VSTOXX futures and require historical prices of each contract as a result. VIX info is free to download on CBOE website: ...
1
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1answer
52 views

remove seasonality in future contracts

very new to commodities. I have raw agriculture future data, and I need to remove the seasonality (de-seasonalize) from the data, what is the general approach ? Thanks for the help!
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5answers
106 views

Data provider for daily futures settlement prices

Is there a data provider that has historical daily settlement prices for download? I'm interested in a provider that spans multiple exchanges.
2
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1answer
83 views

Is spoofing financially risky?

It's alleged that Navinder Singh Sarao contributed to the flash crash by placing huge, fake, order for S&P Minis. Mr. Singh Sarao then cancelled the huge orders before they were filled. The ...
2
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2answers
148 views

Futures fair value with spot in different currency

The fair value, $F$, for a futures contract is $ F = S(1+rt) - D,$ where $S$ is the underlying spot price, $r$ is the interest rate, $t$ is the time to maturity, and $D$ is the dividends. What is ...
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2answers
478 views

Historical Data on $/yen forward exchange rates

Would anyone happen to know where I can find historical forward exchange rate data between the yen and dollar?
2
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0answers
34 views

How to properly assess the costs of replicating an index via futures contracts?

I would like to validate this sentence, coming from a WSJ article: The cost of holding a Eurostoxx 50 future, for example, has climbed from an average of 0.07% of the contract value since 1998, ...
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0answers
53 views

Estimating the next tick movement in Chinese markets

I'm working on high frequency trading in the Chinese Futures market and I've been having a bit of trouble with getting orders to go through due to the lack of liquidity and large fluctuations. To ...
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2answers
55 views

VIX Futures data: why happen to have settle price > 0 and Volume = O.I. = 0

This question is about something observed hands on data that makes me a little confused. Consider the term structure of futures on VIX of Monday, December 27, 2010. You can find it at the CFE market ...
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1answer
57 views

Where to obtain Eurex level 2 historical order book data from?

What are some possible sources to obtain Eurex level 2 historical order book data from? Unfortunately I have only been able to find 1 source - namely Eurex itself, which charges 2000 Euro/month for ...
3
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4answers
1k views

Are Futures exactly Delta One?

Delta of Future is exactly one I thought. This post here, says otherwise. However, quoting John Hull again: $$f = \text{Value of Future contract} = S_{t=0} - K \exp(-rT)$$ where $S$ it the spot ...
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1answer
62 views

ICE oil Future Markers

i have seen Brent oil future singapore marker many times. however, i wonder what is the reason for introducing different markers in the future market. FYI - LINK
3
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1answer
90 views

Which volatility to use to price options on futures contract?

I have some questions regarding pricing futures options and I just want to be sure that my thoughts are correct. I am trying to price options on futures for american & european style. In the ...
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1answer
74 views

Comparing the return of different roll strategies

I am interested in calculating the effect of the roll return using different roll strategies. In specific I want to mimic a long-only futures investments. I have historical data for several ...
3
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0answers
57 views

Estimating Number of “Day Trades” from Total Volume of Commodity Futures Contract

Looking at futures data I am trying to calculate/estimate the number of "day trades", i.e. positions that were initiated and closed during the same day, as distinct from those positions that were ...
4
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1answer
108 views

How to price a futures spread option?

Let's say I have two futures contract $F_1(0,T)$ and $F_2(0,T)$ on two different correlated underlyings. If I assume that both underlying follow a GBM with volatility $\sigma_1$ and $\sigma_2$ ...
3
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1answer
194 views

How to synthesize a futures spread option?

Is it possible to synthesize a futures spread option using only the options on the spread's underlyings? If so, how? If not, is there another way? As an example, please show me how to synthesize ...
1
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1answer
65 views

Am I in a long or short position in this case? (Cross hedging)

An airline expects to purchase 2 million gallons of jet fuel in 1 month and decides to use heating oil futures for hedging. The variance of the heating oil futures price is 1,5 times bigger then the ...
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0answers
48 views

For futures contracts, do we need to do price adjustment during live testing?

I am trying to do pair trading on a pair of future contracts, e.g. CME gold and silver. During the training of my trading model, I do forward adjustment on the pair of future contracts. Let the ...
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0answers
53 views

Is it important to equalize the minimum price fluctuation in pairs trading?

For example, suppose we were trading a strategy which buys one Brent contract and sells one Gasoil contract. The minimum price fluctuation for a Brent contract is \$10, and the minimum price ...
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1answer
87 views

Where can I find a list of market-moving news announcements for different asset classes?

Different asset classes have different important news announcements that move the markets intraday. For instance, oil volatility increases after the EIA Petroleum Status Report, but that announcement ...
2
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2answers
169 views

Predict Futures Prices based on weather + agricultural data

I’m working in the area of Data Mining and have come up with the following idea for my Masters project.The text may not be the best structured but it’s a working draft to give you a quick idea. ...
3
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2answers
1k views

What continous adjustment methods are firms using for futures backtesting?

There are several methods available between data vendors and associated software programs to adjust futures contract data for historical simulations. Some of the methods are: 1) Back or forward ...
4
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1answer
210 views

When Fed stops QE, Treasury Futures will go down in price, so… LEAP Puts are a good idea?

I think: when Fed stops QE (Quantitative Easing), Treasury Futures prices will go down. Question 1: Am I right? So... buying LEAP Puts (in Treasury Futures) would be a good idea. Question 2: Am I ...
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1answer
79 views

Methods for “prompt month equivalent” exposure in commodities forwards/futures markets

It is common in commodities markets to hold many positions, both long and short, across a range of contract months beginning in the prompt month (today, September) to five or more years out. In ...
2
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1answer
154 views

Volatility of Futures

Apparently: Under a constant interest rate, the futures price is given by a deterministic time function times the asset price (I think I understand this). This means that the volatility of the ...
2
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3answers
737 views

How to compute interest rate futures spread ratio?

I am confused on how to compute the spread ratio. For example, this is example I came across with my broker - Consider 2 contracts Bobl and Euribor. The DV01 of Bobl i 44.8 and Euribor is 25. To ...
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0answers
142 views

What is the most convenient data structure for backtesting a model of futures options prices?

I have an empirical model for the dynamics of futures prices in a particular market that I have implemented using a long series of the front five contracts. (I account for the roll in my model.) I ...
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0answers
298 views

Difference between “basic risk” and “basis risk”

Returning to Futures contracts, basic risk refers to the risk remaining after the hedge has been put in place and essentially represents the difference between the Futures price – should the ...
2
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1answer
201 views

ETFs have lower tracking error than Futures?

I used the daily returns of SPX Index, SPY US Equity, and SPA Index. I then calculate their standard deviation as hedging instruments with respect to SPX Index, i.e., (spx_ret - spy_ret) or (spx_ret - ...
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1answer
292 views

Black 76 for Options on Interest Rate Futures

This is my first time using Black76 to value options on IR futures and I have a question on $F$ and $K$. I understand the price for an IR future is usually quoted as $100 - r$. Do I use this price ...
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1answer
103 views

why people want to get a continuous time series from futures data?

So for the backtesting , is it necessary to make an adjustment for the last day of the current contract and the first day of the next far contract? Even if there's is a gap, that's the actual price, u ...
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0answers
63 views

commodity futures pricing vs. underlying spot rates in volatile markets, at depth of book

Are futures contracts or their underlying spot rates, more or less efficient, at depth of market, with volatility? Say for example we have: 1 E7 (CME contract) = 62,500 euro Should the future or ...
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4answers
2k views

Why is the VIX futures market usually in a state of contango?

I'm a VIX newbie and I'm trying to understand why the VIX futures market is usually in a state of contango. All I can figure is that the sellers of VIX futures contracts demand high "prices" (because ...
3
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1answer
186 views

Electricity market : how to design an optimal hedging strategy using spot and futures markets for an industrial consumer?

Here is the problem : we should adopt the point of view of an industrial company which purchases electricity as an input in its production line and which wants to achieve the following two goals : ...
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2answers
104 views

Basis Risk for Futures/Options

I am just reading about basis risk. It is being described as risk of the price of the hedging instrument not fluctuating the same as the instrument itself. I was just wondering, if we bought a ...
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1answer
249 views

What is the Rho of an option on a futures contract priced using the Black 76 model?

I wanted to quickly confirm some simple calculations for the Black 76 greeks and was making use of the formulas on this website: http://riskencyclopedia.com/articles/black_1976/ I have an issue with ...
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2answers
125 views

Why does Futures contract credit and debit a position daily, if it has “locked” the price?

I thought I had understood futures contract. But it seems the daily settlements betray my understanding. Futures contract provides price & product safety to involved two parties. E.g. Wheat ...
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0answers
152 views

What's the link between EURIBOR3M futures volatility and rates volatility?

If I am not wrong, EURIBOR3M futures with maturity $T$, whose price is $F_{T}$, are quoted like contracts which express the underlying forward rates, $r_{T}$, as $$r_{T}=\frac{100-F_{T}}{100}$$ Now ...
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0answers
52 views

How do bond futures affect effective rate when used to hedge a bond's duration?

I'm trying to wrap my head around what happens to the net interest received when an invester goes short a bond future to fully hedge the duration of his long position in an actual bond. Does it ...
4
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1answer
139 views

Korean Bond futures market: is there a fundamental difference between 3yrs, 5yrs and 10yrs contracts?

I would like to model Korean government bond futures. So far I know two concepts (just a short, incomplete description) cash-settled futures (e.g. Australia): The average yield of a basket of bonds ...
2
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1answer
594 views

IB API quotes and speed

The title says it all. I trade futures options exclusively and wanted to see if anyone had insight into the quote speedsrobustness coming into the API. I'm using the Excel DDE right now just building ...
1
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1answer
86 views

Inferring signals in absence of sign of principal components (PCA)?

PCA seems to be very popular in dimension reduction applications and for extracting the top PCs which explain the data. One such application in futures is on the term structure to obtain the level, ...
2
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2answers
4k views

How to Delta Hedge with Futures?

The theory of delta hedging a short position in an option is based on trades in the stock and cash, i.e. I get the option premium and take positions in the stock and cash. In the classical ...
2
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1answer
2k views

How do Trade-At-Settlement orders work?

Can anyone explain how Trade-At-Settlement (TAS) order on futures market actually works? I have heard that it is guaranteed execution at the settlement price (or with some offset). How can it be ...
2
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1answer
564 views

EuroDollar vs FRA

I am not quite clear about this. When people mention Eurodollar are they mean Eurodollar Futures? One of the difference between Eurodollar and Forward Rate Agreement(FRA) is basically difference ...
6
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1answer
2k views

Implied dividend estimation

I am looking at two different ways of estimating the expected / implied dividends from market data. 1. Dividend futures I know that this asset class is not very liquid and might not be ...
3
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0answers
79 views

Dividend Index Futures

My question is dealing with the proportionality between Dividend Index Futures prices and Index prices. Indeed, we in the past we used to do a simple regression between these variables and use the ...
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1answer
104 views

Difference between Ibovespa full and mini futures contract

What is the difference between the following two Brazilian futures contracts: The Ibovespa Futures Contract The Mini Ibovespa Futures Contract As far as I can tell, both are priced in Brazilian ...
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0answers
348 views

How to think about dollar volume in Eurodollar futures?

This is a very basic question: Computing the notional volume for futures contracts usually consists of something like: $V_F = N * P * M * FX$ Where $V_F$ is the dollar volume of the futures ...