The foreign exchange market (forex, FX, or currency market) is a global, worldwide-decentralized financial market for trading currencies. Commonly traded instruments include spot, forward, swaps, futures, and options. The FX market is the most liquid financial market in the world. There is no ...

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16
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9k views

Cross Currency Swap Pricing in nowadays environment

Multicurve setting has now become the new paradigm for vanilla swap valuation. For the record I give here (without getting into too much details) the methodoloy for pricing Euribor3M swaps in this ...
15
votes
1answer
3k views

How do I compare implied and historic volatility?

what would you suggest are the starting points for comparing, in an easy, visual way, implied and delivered volatility surfaces? I'd like to see what the differences are between the historic surfaces, ...
14
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4answers
7k views

Is statistical arbitrage on FX possible?

Do you know of any papers which consider pairs trading (or statistical arbitrage) on foreign exchange? I couldn't find any. I asked this question on several forums and got no reply. Thus I guess this ...
12
votes
2answers
745 views

Effective Euro-USD (EURUSD) Exchange Rate Prior to Euro's Existence

Motivation: I am running a quantitative analysis that requires long-term, exchange rate data. Problem: Does anyone have methods for dealing with the EURUSD exchange rate prior to the Euro's existence?...
11
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3answers
921 views

How do I eliminate developed currency funding cross rate risk in an EMFX position?

Back in the "old days" (ie 5-10 years ago) when we wanted to be long or short an emerging currency (say the ZAR, BRL, or TRY) we simply did everything against the pre-eminent currency of the day, the ...
11
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3answers
2k views

How to generate synthetic FX data for backtesting?

I want to generate synthetic forex data for the purpose of backtesting my trading algorithms. I have some rough ideas in mind on how to do this: Start with a curve representing a trend, then randomly ...
11
votes
1answer
352 views

Currency Hedged ETFs

At work we were talking about currency hedging our equity index exposures but I am struggling to understand how this happens in a typical iShares ETF. If we take the Japan ETF IJPN then we see this ...
11
votes
1answer
284 views

Could banks move to continuous (rather than overnight) funding?

The dominant frequencies for Money Market and FX instruments were 6m and 3m for a long time, and banks slowly moved to commercial trades at those frequencies but funding overnight. If this is a step ...
10
votes
1answer
449 views

Processes used in quant finance

What are the main stochastic processes (and their SDE) used in quant finance? For example to model currency prices, stock prices, etc.
10
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2answers
7k views

Why using 3 months forward to hedge fx risk on a fund of funds portfolio?

In my previous job, a fund of funds, they used 3 months forward FX contracts (renewed every 3 months) to protect their portfolio against currency risk. If I do understand why forwards are useful for ...
10
votes
1answer
258 views

How should FX options be priced when a currency is artificially capped?

The question is inspired by yesterday's (06/09/11) historic announcement by the Swiss National Bank that it would impose a ceiling on the franc of 1.20 against the euro. I would like to know if there ...
9
votes
2answers
710 views

FX Tick Data question

Anyone can tell me what the first column and the last column in this FX tick dataset mean? The first seems like some kind of ID, and what D in the last column mean? 368412956 AUD/CAD 12/30/2007 ...
9
votes
3answers
2k views

how do you evaluate an FX market EMS?

My firm is investigating FX EMS systems to see if we can reduce execution costs for our trading strategies that involve FX (not low latency). The liquidity providers are a few major banks. We're ...
9
votes
1answer
145 views

How should you manage lot sizes in this situation?

Imagine that prior to entering the market you know beforehand the profit factor of similar situations. For example: ...
8
votes
2answers
1k views

Why does this Co-integrated basket look too good to be true?

You need quantmod & tseries in R to run this: ...
8
votes
1answer
738 views

Back office processing for FX trades

Can someone provide (or point me to) a summary of back office processing nuances specific to FX trading? For example, I know that there are several FX-specific risks that must be managed. They include ...
7
votes
3answers
322 views

Transaction Costs for Currency Pairs

I have been aggregating some tick data from Oanda's streaming API to try and get an idea of the relative cost and best time to trade different currency pairs. The idea was to plot the spread of the ...
7
votes
2answers
5k views

Why FX Vanilla Options are quoted in volatility

I've been curious why vanilla options are quoted (and traded) in terms of volatility. Considering that every financial institution has its own options pricing model, volatility as an input would cause ...
7
votes
2answers
444 views

Looking for Research Paper on Creation of Currency Baskets

I came across a paper, not sure it originated from academia or a blog or such, that reported on applying principal components to build currency baskets from a set of individual currency pairs and to ...
7
votes
1answer
511 views

Distribution of profit/loss for retail traders in FX

I've heard that 90% of retail investors in FX lose money. I want to analyze this in more detail. Question: Is there some literature that describes the statistics of profit/loss for retail traders in ...
6
votes
2answers
999 views

Statistical models for exchange rates?

What stochastics processes (if any) are used to model currencies exchange rates and how good are such models ? References on subj. are also highly welcome.
6
votes
2answers
1k views

How to derive appropriate volatility for a binary option (with strike/term) from market data?

I am valuing a binary FX option (european) with a defined strike and term (2Y). I'm using a closed form solution based on Black-Scholes framework. How can I derive the appropriate volatility to use ...
6
votes
1answer
130 views

How to compute returns and daily VaR of a currency position?

I have a Forex trading account with a base currency USD. I am holding a position in EUR/JPY and would like to estimate my daily VaR. If I compute the EUR/JPY returns using the historic prices this ...
6
votes
1answer
238 views

How to perform Empirical Mode Decomposition?

I am trying to use the EMD applied to EURUSD open price to train a machine learning algo (RVM). I have run only once the EMD on my training set and once on the training+test set. The results on the ...
6
votes
0answers
263 views

Markov-Switching Multifractal and FX Rates

Is there a better model than Markov-Switching Multifractal (MSM) for detecting regime shifts in FX rates across multiple time horizons? I am especially interested in the different aspects of the ...
5
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3answers
2k views

How is historical data for forex collected or computed?

I'm looking at four sources of forex data, as compiled in the question, What data sources are available online? And I think I must be misunderstanding something, perhaps something fundamental, but I'm ...
5
votes
1answer
176 views

CNY Devaluation: Why EUR up, USD down?

The second unexpected devaluation of the Chinese currency CNY caused some turbulent market movements in currencies today. I was surprised that the EUR went to a 1-week high against the USD up by ...
5
votes
2answers
140 views

FX forward with stochastic interest rates pricing

I would like to extend the following question about FX Forward rates in stochastic interest rate setup: "Expectation" of a FX Forward We consider a FX process $X_t = X_0 \exp( \int_0^t(r^...
5
votes
2answers
102 views

Calculating probability of Yuan's slump from options market

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-06/if-options-traders-are-right-the-yuan-s-slump-is-far-from-over Contract prices indicate a 79 percent probability that the currency will weaken ...
5
votes
2answers
564 views

VaR mapping - Forward Foreign Currency Contract

I have a question about VaR mapping for FX forwards. Please bear with me while I outline the problem. Philippe Jorion's book discusses VaR mapping; a means to break down complex instruments into ...
5
votes
1answer
56 views

Equivalency of FX forwards and FX fixed for fixed swaps? Are they still the same under multiple curves environment?

I am encountering two approaches for valuation of FX swaps (fixed for fixed, e.g. fixed USD payments for fixed EUR payments) which seem to result into different values although in theory they should ...
5
votes
0answers
431 views

compute time from FX forward, how use DEPO rates?

assume I have following delta-term vol data from broker: ...
4
votes
1answer
146 views

How to use the Black-Scholes formula with LIBOR rates?

I want to price an FX option using the Black-Scholes model, but I don't know the risk free rate, nor the volatility. I only know the LIBOR rates, the strike, and that the expiration day is 87 days ...
4
votes
1answer
184 views

U.S. Rate Hike Prediction

In a recent ft.com video an analyst mentioned that markets postponed their Fed rate hike expectation from September to around November 2015 due to the CNY devaluation, based on the "shift" of some "...
4
votes
2answers
4k views

Interpolating FX forward points

When computing an FX forward rate for an expiry that is not explicitly quoted, it seems to me that a reasonable way to do it is log-linear interpolation of the two nearest outright forward rates, ...
4
votes
3answers
379 views

How to most optimally perform currency conversions when backtesting on portfolio level?

I am currently expanding my own strategy profiling and testing platform which partly consists of a portfolio backtesting module. The backtest engine processes tick based data (quotes for currencies, ...
4
votes
1answer
90 views

Cross Currency Swap pricing

I have seen two methods for calculating the value of a xccy swap - 1) Convert the future foreign payments to the base currency using forward FX rates, net with the base currency payments and ...
4
votes
1answer
86 views

Predicting the Future FX Spot Rates

Say I need to predict what the spot rate between USD and CAD will be in 3 months. What will be the most accurate measure or model that I could possibly use? Does the 3 month forward rate necessarily ...
4
votes
3answers
123 views

Modelling currency exchange rates timeseries data across re-denomation dates

I am working with data for an exotic currency, that has been re-denominated a couple of times during the twenty years of data that I have. What is the best way of 'normalising' the data, so that I ...
4
votes
1answer
1k views

Computing FX forward delivery dates

I'm looking for a precise definition of how FX outright delivery dates are computed. Chapter 1 of the book 'Foreign Exchange Option Pricing: A Practitioners Guide' (this chapter can be found here) ...
4
votes
1answer
5k views

Equivalency of FX forwards and FX basis swaps for risk-management purposes

Can one deem an FX float-to-float swap and a FX forward equivalent on dates immediately after repricing? The reason I am asking, I am hedging something that can be modeled via an FX forward, I was ...
4
votes
1answer
339 views

Inferring highest bid and lowest ask from forex trade data

I have historical trade data for every trade on a forex exchange, whcih includes the following data: Time the trade was made Amount, in currency A Price, in currency B I have also used this to ...
4
votes
1answer
476 views

FX option history

I am testing my model and I am interested in options prices on EUR|USD for Jan, 2011. The history can be even daily - but I have never had a deal with fx options, so I don't know where start to look ...
4
votes
2answers
136 views

Simple question about FX carry trade

I have been reading online about the FX carry trade and how this can be profitable (in general). From my understanding, the idea is to be long (lend) the currency with higher interest rate and short (...
4
votes
1answer
1k views

Are there Python algorithmic trading libraries supporting forex?

I know about zipline and ultrafinance, but as far as I know, they don't support fx trading. Which libraries do?
4
votes
1answer
124 views

Is that a good way to work with the ARMA model?

I would like to share with you what I am doing to get your point of view, and to make a better trading system in collaboration. I am working on EURUSD forex, and I am trying to find a way to place ...
3
votes
3answers
3k views

Why are exotic options most popular in FX?

I was reading Derman's latest blog post on Vanna Volga pricing, which, according to the linked Wikipedia article, is used mostly for pricing exotic options on foreign exchange (FX). This Willmott ...
3
votes
2answers
37 views

The relation between exchange rate SDE and respective interest rates

The exchange rate between a domestic currency money market and a foreign currency money market can be expressed as $$ dQ(t) = (r_d - r_f)Q(t)dt + \sigma Q(t)d\tilde{W}(t) $$ where $r_d$ is the ...
3
votes
1answer
89 views

Pricing of swaps

I have a (hopefully) elementary question about forex swaps. Most feeds will have a near and a far leg (or more legs for more exotic swaps). I appreciate that "buying the swap" involves locking in ...
3
votes
2answers
97 views

Longer term average probabilities of fills at fx ECNs?

I am wondering whether anyone can share experiences and longer term average probabilities of fills when quoting inside the spread at various fx ECNs. I need to make an assumption of the probability of ...