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1answer
14 views

Any package to run VAR-GARCH or VECM-GARCH models in R?

I need to estimate a multivariate VECM-GARCH (or simply VAR-GARCH) in R. Browsing on the internet, I did not find anything yet. Do you know if such kind of packages exists? Please, note that a BEKK ...
2
votes
1answer
46 views

Measure the effect of a natural disaster on a stock market index

I am very new to using stata and very new to using Garch models. I am currently doing my final dissertation for my MSc in Finance studies and regarding my topic I understood that i had to use garch to ...
0
votes
1answer
48 views

Accuracy of GARCH& ARCH forecast

I'm learing ARCH&GARCH model. I have four questions that I don't know the answers 1st: ARCH & GARCH are often used to evaluate equities. Does it mean that ARCH and GARCH are fitter for high ...
2
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0answers
7 views

The difference in sign bias test in detecting the exist of asymmetric effects and the adequacy of symmetric GARCH model.

The question is that I want to know whether there is difference in the applying of sign bias test in detecting the exist of asymmetric effects and the adequacy of symmetric GARCH model. In the ...
1
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1answer
22 views

EGARCH formulation

I am a bit confused about the formulation of the EGARCH(1,1) model. First, we have the error term: $\epsilon_t=\sigma_t*\zeta_t$, where $\zeta_t$ is white noise. Now the EGARCH(1,1) should be: $$ ...
0
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0answers
18 views

How to decide if the ARCH coefficient is necessary in the GJR-GARCH model?

I did some analysis for CAC 40, the French market benchmark, for the period 2005-2014, and I tried to fit the data with a GJR(1,1) model in MATLAB. Then some warning showed Lower bound ...
0
votes
1answer
27 views

Diebold-Mariano test

I am trying to use the Diebold-Mariano test but it doesnt work for some reason. Here is my code: dm.test(maegarch14,maeegarch14,h=126) where ...
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votes
1answer
54 views

Constant decreasing volatility, GARCH forecasting

I am trying to forecast the volatility using GARCH modelling in R. I fit an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model, but my sigma predictions are constantly decreasing. Anybody know why? ...
0
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1answer
21 views

Residuals in the Ljung box test

does anybody know what type of residuals is used in the Ljung box test in R? raw or standardized? Because basically when I fit a GARCH model using garchFit, the summary() function gives me all the ...
1
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1answer
61 views

Forecasting using GARCH in R

I am using the predict and ugarchforecast functions in R. When I fit my models and try to forecast, I get either only increasing or decreasing values for sigma, does anyone know why? Thank you ...
0
votes
2answers
82 views

Uses of Volatility models

I'm reading about volatility analysis here http://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/doc?topic=mdls. There are many variations of GARCH. My question is: rather than trial-and-error approach, is there any systematic ...
1
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0answers
79 views

GARCH modelling and forecasting

I have a few questions regarding GARCH modelling and forecasting and it would be great if someone could help me. I am modelling the log return of oil spot prices using various GARCH models: GARCH, ...
0
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0answers
59 views

High frequency price forecast model ARMA GARCH or another?

Can you reccomend model for high frequency data (1 second and less) (returns and volatility forecasting)? Most papers use ARMA, GARCH etc in 1 minute and lower time frame. PROBLEM ARMA does not know ...
0
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0answers
35 views

Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH (1,1)

I am a beginner in R and my econometrics background is not very sound either. I want to build a constant conditional correlation GARCH (1,1) model in R and I found the function, the description of ...
1
vote
1answer
63 views

Explain the unconditional covariance in Dynamic Conditional correlation( DCC ) GARCH model

Confused about the unconditional covariance matrix in a DCC GARCH model. Could anyone help me understand it? My understanding is that we get the unconditional covariance before based on the data sets. ...
1
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0answers
63 views

How can I do a dynamic GARCH model using extended Kalman filter in R?

Today I was reading an article quoted here, in this article is proposed an adaptive (dynamic) Garch model. How can I do it in R? The use of extended Kalman filter or particle filter is indifferent. I ...
0
votes
1answer
112 views

How to fit a SARIMA + GARCH in R?

I'd like to fit a non stationary time series using a SARIMA + GARCH model. I have not found any package that allow me to fit this model. I'm using rugarch: model=ugarchspec( variance.model = ...
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votes
1answer
104 views

Can I do a GARCH model to forecast a time series?

I read this paper https://research.aston.ac.uk/portal/files/240393/AURA_2_unmarked_Energy_demand_and_price_forecasting_using_wavelet_transform_and_adaptive_forecasting_models.pdf the two authors ...
4
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2answers
138 views

The use of GARCH

I have a conceptual question that I haven't managed to grasp yet and is most likely a econometrics 101 question by here it goes: If we estimate a GARCH model for a time series, how do we then use ...
1
vote
1answer
189 views

using garch to forecast volatility but getting low persistence model

I am using a GARCH(1, 1) model to try model volatility for a certain stock. I have a GARCH function in matlab that returns the three parameters, omega, alpha & beta. I then use this parameters ...
2
votes
1answer
103 views

Difference between GARCH and Heston Volatility model

I know that the difference between the GARCH and the Heston model is volatility vs variance in the stochastic part of the volatility sde. However,from my solutions, there is only ever a 2 - 10 cent ...
2
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0answers
92 views

Is it too important that my residuals be normal? I am Using an ARMA/GARCH model

I am trying to fit an ARMA/GARCH model to a time series. I found that the best candidate is an ARMA(1,0) + GARCH(1,1) with gaussian white noise It has coefficients with p-values near cero and the ...
7
votes
1answer
780 views

Correctly applying GARCH in Python

Problem: Correct usage of GARCH(1,1) Aim of research: Forecasting volatility/variance. Tools used: Python Instrument: SPX (specifically adjusted close prices) Reference material: On Estimation of ...
0
votes
1answer
27 views

When the two time series with different length, how could we analysis them with a bivariate GARCH model?

At this moment, i need to do the analysis of rouble/us dollars exchange rate and the stock market index in Russia, I prefer to do that in a multivariate GARCH model. However, I have a question about ...
2
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0answers
37 views

What kind of errors arise when I fit ARMA(1,1) to data generated from ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) process?

As far as I know estimates of parameters of ARMA(1,1) are asymptotically optimal when fitted to data from ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) process, and only their variance increase, so when we assume large ...
1
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0answers
64 views

Why random walk Metropolis Hasting algorithm works bad on GARCH(1,1) parameters estimation

I am trying to estimate the parameters of the GARCH(1,1) model with MCMC method, firstly, I read the paper: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12985/1/MPRA_paper_12985.pdf Metropolis Hasting method is ...
3
votes
5answers
470 views

Is there any way to easily estimate and forecast seasonal ARIMA-GARCH model in any software?

I use R to estimate a seasonal ARIMA(8,0,0)(5,0,1)[7] model for the seasonal differences of logs of daily electricity prices: ...
1
vote
1answer
108 views

Log returns and GARCH models

I try to model currency rates volatility using GARCH models through the RUGARCH package in R. Starting from the observed currency rate series, I compute the log-return through: ...
2
votes
2answers
184 views

How to find the best fitting GARCH model for a portfolio composed of 3 ETFs in R?

I am doing a project for my class Financial Time Series in which I am trying to forecast my portfolio log returns using a GARCH fit. I am having a bit of trouble determining the best way to fit this ...
0
votes
2answers
142 views

what volatility do we calculate using GARCH model

what volatility do we calculate using GARCH model, Historical vol or Implied vol or Future Vol or Actual vol.
3
votes
0answers
86 views

Filtering out AR(1) effects before using stochastic volatility model

I wonder if I first filter out AR(1) (autoregressive model with lag 1) effects from univariate time series and then fit stochastic volatility model does above procedure introduce any bias at first or ...
1
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0answers
72 views

GARCH parameters

I'm trying to estimate parameters of GARCH(p,q) model. I tried p=1, q=1 with t-distribution errors. Ljung-Box showed no correlation in residuals and squared residual. But the null hypothesis that ...
1
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0answers
52 views

Dummy variable and negative estimation in GARCH (1.1)

I am trying to use GARCH model for my research. However, when I am running them, I see negative value for alpha and beta. How I can restrict them so that they do not provide me any negative value. Is ...
0
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0answers
28 views

garchOxFit in R-oxo file does not match

Could someone please help me with trying to get the Ox interface to work in R. I get the following errors as output: This version may be used for academic research and teaching only Link error: ...
2
votes
1answer
100 views

Volatility estimation: sampling frequency and scaling

I have a year long stock data sampled at 5 min frequency and would like to estimate monthly volatility using it. I am thinking using GARCH or TGARCH for volatility estimation. However, I am not sure ...
2
votes
2answers
214 views

Is there a way to adjust R PerformanceAnalytics function VaR with EWMA or GARCH method?

Is there a way to upgrade R PerformanceAnalytics function VaR with more risk sensitive approaches like EWMA or GARCH? Or is there another R package which can handle the issue?
1
vote
1answer
259 views

HAR-RV, realized GARCH and HEAVY model for realized volatility

I don't have much experience with volatility modeling using intraday data but I'm in the process of collecting 5mins data. Currently I have ~6 months of data. Is it enough to use these models with ...
3
votes
2answers
150 views

Understanding the conditioning in a GARCH process

In a GARCH model like the following $$y_t=\sigma_tz_t,\\ \sigma_t^2=\omega(1-\alpha-\beta)+\alpha y_{t-1}^2+\beta \sigma_{t-1}^2$$ where $z_t$ is assumed to be iidN(0,1), we say that conditional on ...
3
votes
2answers
178 views

Intuition behind interest rate models

I am modelling the 3M yield of US Treasuries using an ARMA/ GARCH approach. Most interest rate models (e.g. Vasicek) describe the process as follows: $r_{t}-r_{t-1} = some ARMA+ \epsilon_t $ ...
1
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0answers
56 views

volume augmented garch(1,1) model in matlab

Actually I want to add volume traded of a stock in my Garch(1,1) model to forecast the volatility.In Matlab I can specify the model as garch(1,1) and then use estimate and forecast commands.But I am ...
1
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0answers
64 views

rugarch and rolling estimation

I use Rugarch for a long time in order to calibrate GARCH models on FX rates time series and perform simulations. I am trying to understand the ugarchroll method. However even if I can find plenty of ...
4
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0answers
109 views

Does GARCH derived variance explain the auto-correlation in a time series?

Given a time series of $u_i$ returns where i=1 to t. $\sigma_i$ is calculated from GARCH(1,1) as $\sigma_i^2=w+\alpha u_{i-1}^2 +\beta \sigma_{i-1}^2$ . What is the mathematical basis to say that ...
3
votes
1answer
3k views

GARCH model and prediction

I have a question about the prediction of volatility and returns of a time series. Basically it is a question about prediction in the ...
3
votes
1answer
2k views

GARCH(1,1) good fit found, how to predict one day volatility ahead?

I used SPY data to fit GARCH(1,1) in my model. My data starts from Jan, 2000 until Dec, 2013. I compared the volatility using runSD on the 21 rolling window and GARCH(1,1). It looks a pretty good fit ...
1
vote
1answer
185 views

How would you correct a GARCH model to deal with non mean reverting volatility?

I am currently attempting to model and forecast volatility of bitcoin but have not been able to find a GARCH model that fits the data appropriately. I've used tick data sampled at 1 hour intervals ...
2
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2answers
124 views

What impact does arbitrage have on realised volatility estimates?

Doing some research modeling/estimating volatility in the bitcoin market. There is quite a bit of scope for arbitrage within crypto-currency markets. Wonder if this has any impact on my volatility ...
0
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2answers
950 views

Optimal lag length selection criterion in GARCH(p,q) model using MATLAB

As assessed by the title, I'm trying to estimate a GARCH(p,q) model to forecast stock market volatility and, in order to be able to do that, I've to identify the optimal number of lags, p and q, to ...
3
votes
1answer
183 views

What return equation is Engle referring to in his Nobel lecture?

Engle comments in "Risk and Volatility: Econometric models and Financial Practice" that If the price of risk were constant over time, then rising conditional variances would translate linearly ...
2
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1answer
71 views

How come the existence of ARCH effect is not a violation of Random Walk Hypothesis 3?

An ARCH (autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic) (1) model is: $r_t=\mu +a_t$, where $a_t=$return residual, and $\mu$ is the drift of the stock return $a_t=\sigma_t\epsilon_t$, where ...
3
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1answer
98 views

Time-Varying Volatility and Conditional Likelihood

Engle's comment in his seminal paper "Risk and Volatility: Econometric models and Financial Practice" mentions that I had recently worked extensively with the Kalman Filter and knew that a ...