# Tagged Questions

If an auto regressive moving average model (ARMA model) is assumed for the error variance, the model is a generalized auto regressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) .

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### Forecasting conditional mean in ARMA-GARCH model (R/Matlab)

I am trying to forecast the conditional mean from a ARMA(1,0)-GARCH(1,1) model. The mean equation in my model is: $x_t = \mu + \delta x_{t-1} + h_t \epsilon_t$ where x is the variable (a return ...
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### Skewed Generalized Error Distribution in GARCH modelling

I am trying to estimate GARCH models with the use of Theodossiou's (2000) Skewed Generalized Error Distribution. I am modifying matlab's ARMAX-GARCH-K toolbox to calculate this model. I am calculating ...
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### ARMA+GARCH prediction with package rugarch (R)

I am analyzing FTSE 100 series, from 2007-01-01 to 2010-12-31 (university exam homework). I have to use the data 'til 2010-11-30 as sample, and the remaining (23) observations as in-sample forecast (...
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### Log-likelihood of skew-t distribution

I am trying to estimate GARCH models with the use of Hansen's (1994) skew-t distribution. I am using matlab's ARMAX-GARCH-K toolbox, where the log-likelihood is calculated as: ...
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### Forecast of volatility

What are the well known methods for forecasting (daily - weekly - monthly) volatility of a stock price? How about a bond price? Let's say I have in my disposition the price time series at a very high ...
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### When to use SV or a GARCH model

So i have been searching for this answer for a question if there is a rule or something that would say when to use GARCH type model or use an stochastic volatility model to predict the volatility of ...
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### CCC-Garch predict

So I'm trying to measure the VaR of 2 stock with a multivariate GARCH model, so im using the CCC model. I need to predict the standard-diviation and the mean but the ...
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### What is the preferred GARCH method in practice?

My advance apologies, if this question is too naive or basic. Please be patient with my first experiences with SE; ask for clarification, if needed. I recognize there are many (often-criticized) ...
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### BEKK - GARCH model in Stata

Is it possible to run BEKK-GARCH in Stata? mgarch is of a different model type and google provide me with no good hints.
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### Expected value of log-GARCH process

Is there a way to analitycally compute expectation of log-GARCH process? The GARCH(1,1) process: $dU_t = \theta(\omega - U_t) dt + \xi U_t d W_t$ The log-GARCH(1,1) process: $e^{U_t}$ The ...
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### Is there an implementation of VAR-EGARCH model in R or Stata?

I am writing my undergrad honor thesis and want to run a multivariable VAR-EGARCH model. Is there any package in R or formulas in Stata 14 that allows me to implement directly? If not, could you ...
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### Could we estimate a portfolio's volatility using a GARCH on the portfolio returns?

Estimating the volatility of a portfolio is typically done by first estimating the covariance matrix. This, however, can be difficult to do accurately and predictivly. This paper gives a nice summary ...
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### Autocorrelation in the GARCH model residuals

I am estimating GARCH model for volatility calculation and as a data input I have used log first difference data (ln(a)-ln(b)). Usually I would check for autocorrelation in residuals(to check the ...
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### How to predict daily range of forex?

I am trying to predict the intraday moving range of stock/forex (essentially, high-low). Here are some ideas based on what I've been reading recently (do not have quant background, so basic level of ...
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### How to user GARCH(p,q) to identify most volatile sector?

I would like to ask help concerning the utilization of GARCH(p,q) models to identify volatility. Suppose that I have daily closing prices of 6 financial sectors spanning several years, and I am ...
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### GARCH filtering and extreme value theory

We are evaluating a model for risk management based on extreme value theory using peaks over threshold and markov chain monte carlo methods. In doing this, we are firstly fitting a GARCH (we have ...
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### 2-step estimation of DCC GARCH model in Python

Embedded in this thread are multiple questions. I'm currently im the process of implementing a DCC GARCH forecast model on quantopian (a python-powered trading platform). The two step consists of ...
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### GARCH estimation does not work, error in my returns?

Hey everyone and I hope that there are some smarter people out here that can help me out with my problem...: I have trouble with my implementation of a GARCH(1,1) model and I do not know how to move ...
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### Garch models and assumption of stationarity ?

I found big inconsistency in the GARCH models and their underlying assumption of stationarity. GARCH models require that data must be stationary, where stationary means both mean and variance are ...
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### Forecast of ARMA-GARCH model in R

I managed to forecast a GARCH model yesterday and run a Monte Carlo simulation on R. Nevertheless, I can't do the same with an ARMA-GARCH. I tested 4 different method but without achieving an ARMA-...
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### How to decide if the ARCH coefficient is necessary in the GJR-GARCH model?

I did some analysis for CAC 40, the French market benchmark, for the period 2005-2014, and I tried to fit the data with a GJR(1,1) model in MATLAB. Then some warning showed Lower bound ...
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### Constant decreasing volatility, GARCH forecasting

I am trying to forecast the volatility using GARCH modelling in R. I fit an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model, but my sigma predictions are constantly decreasing. Anybody know why? ...
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### Residuals in the Ljung box test

does anybody know what type of residuals is used in the Ljung box test in R? raw or standardized? Because basically when I fit a GARCH model using garchFit, the summary() function gives me all the ...
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### Forecasting using GARCH in R

I am using the predict and ugarchforecast functions in R. When I fit my models and try to forecast, I get either only increasing or decreasing values for sigma, does anyone know why? Thank you ...
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### Uses of Volatility models

I'm reading about volatility analysis here http://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/doc?topic=mdls. There are many variations of GARCH. My question is: rather than trial-and-error approach, is there any systematic ...
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### GARCH modelling and forecasting

I have a few questions regarding GARCH modelling and forecasting and it would be great if someone could help me. I am modelling the log return of oil spot prices using various GARCH models: GARCH, ...
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### High frequency price forecast model ARMA GARCH or another?

Can you reccomend model for high frequency data (1 second and less) (returns and volatility forecasting)? Most papers use ARMA, GARCH etc in 1 minute and lower time frame. PROBLEM ARMA does not know ...
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### Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH (1,1)

I am a beginner in R and my econometrics background is not very sound either. I want to build a constant conditional correlation GARCH (1,1) model in R and I found the function, the description of ...
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### Explain the unconditional covariance in Dynamic Conditional correlation( DCC ) GARCH model

Confused about the unconditional covariance matrix in a DCC GARCH model. Could anyone help me understand it? My understanding is that we get the unconditional covariance before based on the data sets. ...
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### How to fit a SARIMA + GARCH in R?

I'd like to fit a non stationary time series using a SARIMA + GARCH model. I have not found any package that allow me to fit this model. I'm using rugarch: model=ugarchspec( variance.model = list(...
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### The use of GARCH

I have a conceptual question that I haven't managed to grasp yet and is most likely a econometrics 101 question by here it goes: If we estimate a GARCH model for a time series, how do we then use ...
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### using garch to forecast volatility but getting low persistence model

I am using a GARCH(1, 1) model to try model volatility for a certain stock. I have a GARCH function in matlab that returns the three parameters, omega, alpha & beta. I then use this parameters ...
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### Difference between GARCH and Heston Volatility model

I know that the difference between the GARCH and the Heston model is volatility vs variance in the stochastic part of the volatility sde. However,from my solutions, there is only ever a 2 - 10 cent ...
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### Is it too important that my residuals be normal? I am Using an ARMA/GARCH model

I am trying to fit an ARMA/GARCH model to a time series. I found that the best candidate is an ARMA(1,0) + GARCH(1,1) with gaussian white noise It has coefficients with p-values near cero and the ...
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### Correctly applying GARCH in Python

Problem: Correct usage of GARCH(1,1) Aim of research: Forecasting volatility/variance. Tools used: Python Instrument: SPX (specifically adjusted close prices) Reference material: On Estimation of ...
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### When the two time series with different length, how could we analysis them with a bivariate GARCH model?

At this moment, i need to do the analysis of rouble/us dollars exchange rate and the stock market index in Russia, I prefer to do that in a multivariate GARCH model. However, I have a question about ...
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### What kind of errors arise when I fit ARMA(1,1) to data generated from ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) process?

As far as I know estimates of parameters of ARMA(1,1) are asymptotically optimal when fitted to data from ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) process, and only their variance increase, so when we assume large ...