If an auto regressive moving average model (ARMA model) is assumed for the error variance, the model is a generalized auto regressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) .

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Measure the effect of a natural disaster on a stock market index

I am very new to using stata and very new to using Garch models. I am currently doing my final dissertation for my MSc in Finance studies and regarding my topic I understood that i had to use garch to ...
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96 views

Accuracy of GARCH& ARCH forecast

I'm learing ARCH&GARCH model. I have four questions that I don't know the answers 1st: ARCH & GARCH are often used to evaluate equities. Does it mean that ARCH and GARCH are fitter for high ...
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2answers
285 views

How to find the best fitting GARCH model for a portfolio composed of 3 ETFs in R?

I am doing a project for my class Financial Time Series in which I am trying to forecast my portfolio log returns using a GARCH fit. I am having a bit of trouble determining the best way to fit this ...
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2answers
296 views

Is there a way to adjust R PerformanceAnalytics function VaR with EWMA or GARCH method?

Is there a way to upgrade R PerformanceAnalytics function VaR with more risk sensitive approaches like EWMA or GARCH? Or is there another R package which can handle the issue?
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1answer
228 views

How would you correct a GARCH model to deal with non mean reverting volatility?

I am currently attempting to model and forecast volatility of bitcoin but have not been able to find a GARCH model that fits the data appropriately. I've used tick data sampled at 1 hour intervals ...
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253 views

Does the correlation amongst stocks rise when stock values decline?

Is there any research on whether the correlations among stocks rise when stock indices decline? Which model could account and test for that effect ? Maybe GARCH-BEKK, or some models using copulas?
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67 views

The difference in sign bias test in detecting the exist of asymmetric effects and the adequacy of symmetric GARCH model.

The question is that I want to know whether there is difference in the applying of sign bias test in detecting the exist of asymmetric effects and the adequacy of symmetric GARCH model. In the ...
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942 views

FIGARCH estimation in R

I am trying to estimate a FIGARCH(1,1) model in R for Value-at-Risk purposes. As I understand it, the rugarch package does not support FIGARCH or FIEGARCH. To that end, I used the garchOxFit function ...
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311 views

Error term/Innovation process in ARCH/GARCH processes?

I am wondering about the distribution of the error term/innovation process in a ARCH/GARCH process and its implementation, I am not sure about some points. The basic assumption is ...
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637 views

Markov-Switching E-GARCH with R

I am looking for a R library for modeling a Markov-Switching E-GARCH process. In other questions at StackExchange related to GARCH models, the package rugarch is often mentionned. Do you recommend it ...
3
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1answer
127 views

Volatility estimation: sampling frequency and scaling

I have a year long stock data sampled at 5 min frequency and would like to estimate monthly volatility using it. I am thinking using GARCH or TGARCH for volatility estimation. However, I am not sure ...
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91 views

Garch models and assumption of stationarity ?

I found big inconsistency in the GARCH models and their underlying assumption of stationarity. GARCH models require that data must be stationary, where stationary means both mean and variance are ...
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881 views

Should I use GARCH volatility or standard deviation in cross-sectional regression?

I want to do a cross-sectional study where the historical, medium-long run volatility of some return series (call it $R_t$) is included as a regressor. Which of the following two estimates of ...
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2answers
164 views

Multivariate GARCH in Python

Is there a package to run simplified multivariate GARCH models in Python? I found the Arch package but that seems to work on only univariate models. I'd like to test out some of the more simple ...
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1answer
32 views

EGARCH formulation

I am a bit confused about the formulation of the EGARCH(1,1) model. First, we have the error term: $\epsilon_t=\sigma_t*\zeta_t$, where $\zeta_t$ is white noise. Now the EGARCH(1,1) should be: $$ ...
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1answer
155 views

Log returns and GARCH models

I try to model currency rates volatility using GARCH models through the RUGARCH package in R. Starting from the observed currency rate series, I compute the log-return through: ...
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3answers
1k views

How to trade volatility?

I am analyzing the volatility of financial stock returns and let's say I have a pretty good model to forecast tomorrows volatility of the stock returns. So let's say for simplicity reasons I have a ...
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1answer
4k views

How do I model GARCH(1,1) volatility for historical indexes in Matlab?

I'm currently working with historical index data from Yahoo Finance and would like to plot the GARCH(1,1) volatility of these indexes. I'm working with the Datafeed and Finance Tollboxes in Matlab ...
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2answers
77 views

Is there an implementation of VAR-EGARCH model in R or Stata?

I am writing my undergrad honor thesis and want to run a multivariable VAR-EGARCH model. Is there any package in R or formulas in Stata 14 that allows me to implement directly? If not, could you ...
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2answers
257 views

How to predict daily range of forex?

I am trying to predict the intraday moving range of stock/forex (essentially, high-low). Here are some ideas based on what I've been reading recently (do not have quant background, so basic level of ...
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1answer
207 views

2-step estimation of DCC GARCH model in Python

Embedded in this thread are multiple questions. I'm currently im the process of implementing a DCC GARCH forecast model on quantopian (a python-powered trading platform). The two step consists of ...
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1answer
133 views

Forecasting using GARCH in R

I am using the predict and ugarchforecast functions in R. When I fit my models and try to forecast, I get either only increasing or decreasing values for sigma, does anyone know why? Thank you ...
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1answer
184 views

High frequency price forecast model ARMA GARCH or another?

Can you reccomend model for high frequency data (1 second and less) (returns and volatility forecasting)? Most papers use ARMA, GARCH etc in 1 minute and lower time frame. PROBLEM ARMA does not know ...
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1answer
380 views

using garch to forecast volatility but getting low persistence model

I am using a GARCH(1, 1) model to try model volatility for a certain stock. I have a GARCH function in matlab that returns the three parameters, omega, alpha & beta. I then use this parameters ...
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1answer
111 views

GARCH parameters

I'm trying to estimate parameters of GARCH(p,q) model. I tried p=1, q=1 with t-distribution errors. Ljung-Box showed no correlation in residuals and squared residual. But the null hypothesis that ...
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1answer
390 views

HAR-RV, realized GARCH and HEAVY model for realized volatility

I don't have much experience with volatility modeling using intraday data but I'm in the process of collecting 5mins data. Currently I have ~6 months of data. Is it enough to use these models with ...
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1answer
96 views

How come the existence of ARCH effect is not a violation of Random Walk Hypothesis 3?

An ARCH (autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic) (1) model is: $r_t=\mu +a_t$, where $a_t=$return residual, and $\mu$ is the drift of the stock return $a_t=\sigma_t\epsilon_t$, where ...
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703 views

GARCH(1,1) prediction in R - Basic Questions

Background to question: Hi, I was trying to fit a GARCH(1,1) model to the variance of log returns of a series, and ARMA(0,0) for the mean. I was using the fGarch package to do this. The aim of the ...
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1answer
43 views

How to implement dummy variables into GARCH(1,1) model from structural breaks (ICSS)

Hello everybody, I was already searching a lot of forums and read a huge amount of different papers. But I guess I am to stupid or I am at a loss. Hopefully some of you are able to help me out. Here ...
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41 views

When to use SV or a GARCH model

So i have been searching for this answer for a question if there is a rule or something that would say when to use GARCH type model or use an stochastic volatility model to predict the volatility of ...
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35 views

Sum of two GARCH(1,1) Models

I have two GARCH(1,1) processes ($q=1,2$) $$ \sigma_{q,t} = \gamma_q + \alpha_q \, \sigma^2_{q,t-1} + \beta_q \, \epsilon^2_{q,t-1} $$ that have a constant correlation $\sigma_{12,t} = \rho \, ...
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119 views

Forecast of ARMA-GARCH model in R

I managed to forecast a GARCH model yesterday and run a Monte Carlo simulation on R. Nevertheless, I can't do the same with an ARMA-GARCH. I tested 4 different method but without achieving an ...
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216 views

GARCH modelling and forecasting

I have a few questions regarding GARCH modelling and forecasting and it would be great if someone could help me. I am modelling the log return of oil spot prices using various GARCH models: GARCH, ...
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1answer
119 views

Explain the unconditional covariance in Dynamic Conditional correlation( DCC ) GARCH model

Confused about the unconditional covariance matrix in a DCC GARCH model. Could anyone help me understand it? My understanding is that we get the unconditional covariance before based on the data sets. ...
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0answers
107 views

How can I do a dynamic GARCH model using extended Kalman filter in R?

Today I was reading an article quoted here, in this article is proposed an adaptive (dynamic) Garch model. How can I do it in R? The use of extended Kalman filter or particle filter is indifferent. I ...
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115 views

Why random walk Metropolis Hasting algorithm works bad on GARCH(1,1) parameters estimation

I am trying to estimate the parameters of the GARCH(1,1) model with MCMC method, firstly, I read the paper: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12985/1/MPRA_paper_12985.pdf Metropolis Hasting method is ...
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0answers
94 views

Dummy variable and negative estimation in GARCH (1.1)

I am trying to use GARCH model for my research. However, when I am running them, I see negative value for alpha and beta. How I can restrict them so that they do not provide me any negative value. Is ...
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0answers
68 views

volume augmented garch(1,1) model in matlab

Actually I want to add volume traded of a stock in my Garch(1,1) model to forecast the volatility.In Matlab I can specify the model as garch(1,1) and then use estimate and forecast commands.But I am ...
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85 views

rugarch and rolling estimation

I use Rugarch for a long time in order to calibrate GARCH models on FX rates time series and perform simulations. I am trying to understand the ugarchroll method. However even if I can find plenty of ...
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0answers
140 views

What does negative gamma mean in APGARCH model?

I got a gamma of -0.1321677. ...
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2answers
1k views

Optimal lag length selection criterion in GARCH(p,q) model using MATLAB

As assessed by the title, I'm trying to estimate a GARCH(p,q) model to forecast stock market volatility and, in order to be able to do that, I've to identify the optimal number of lags, p and q, to ...
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1answer
50 views

GARCH alpha equal to 0

I am estimating a GJR-GARCH(1,1) model with variance targeting in R. As data I am using returns on some stock indices. While calculating the GARCH models I obtain $\alpha=0$ for some indices. From ...
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1answer
243 views

How to fit a SARIMA + GARCH in R?

I'd like to fit a non stationary time series using a SARIMA + GARCH model. I have not found any package that allow me to fit this model. I'm using rugarch: model=ugarchspec( variance.model = ...
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2answers
172 views

what volatility do we calculate using GARCH model

what volatility do we calculate using GARCH model, Historical vol or Implied vol or Future Vol or Actual vol.
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1answer
43 views

One-step ahead forecast of a AR(1) process (GARCH context)

I am using a Matlab toolbox for obtaining one-step ahead forecasts of the conditional mean from the ARMA(1,0)-GARCH(1,1) process and I have encountered a piece of code that contains, in my opinion, a ...
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1answer
34 views

Residuals in the Ljung box test

does anybody know what type of residuals is used in the Ljung box test in R? raw or standardized? Because basically when I fit a GARCH model using garchFit, the summary() function gives me all the ...
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90 views

Uses of Volatility models

I'm reading about volatility analysis here http://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/doc?topic=mdls. There are many variations of GARCH. My question is: rather than trial-and-error approach, is there any systematic ...
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1answer
55 views

When the two time series with different length, how could we analysis them with a bivariate GARCH model?

At this moment, i need to do the analysis of rouble/us dollars exchange rate and the stock market index in Russia, I prefer to do that in a multivariate GARCH model. However, I have a question about ...
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35 views

How to fit exogenous + GARCH Model In Python?

I am studying a textbook of statistics / econometrics, using Python for my computational needs. I have encountered GARCH models and my understanding is that this is a commonly used model. In an ...
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36 views

Simulating returns from ARMA(1,0)-GARCH(1,1) model

I want to obtain a simulation of one-step ahead forecasts of stock returns process governed by ARMA(1,0)-GARCH(1,1) process. The returns are of form: $x_t = \mu + \delta x_{t-1} + \sigma_t z_t$ From ...