The tag has no wiki summary.

learn more… | top users | synonyms

2
votes
0answers
126 views

What does negative gamma mean in APGARCH model?

I got a gamma of -0.1321677. ...
2
votes
0answers
467 views

Markov-Switching E-GARCH with R

I am looking for a R library for modeling a Markov-Switching E-GARCH process. In other questions at StackExchange related to GARCH models, the package rugarch is often mentionned. Do you recommend it ...
2
votes
1answer
92 views

Volatility estimation: sampling frequency and scaling

I have a year long stock data sampled at 5 min frequency and would like to estimate monthly volatility using it. I am thinking using GARCH or TGARCH for volatility estimation. However, I am not sure ...
1
vote
1answer
102 views

using garch to forecast volatility but getting low persistence model

I am using a GARCH(1, 1) model to try model volatility for a certain stock. I have a GARCH function in matlab that returns the three parameters, omega, alpha & beta. I then use this parameters ...
1
vote
1answer
84 views

Log returns and GARCH models

I try to model currency rates volatility using GARCH models through the RUGARCH package in R. Starting from the observed currency rate series, I compute the log-return through: ...
1
vote
1answer
205 views

HAR-RV, realized GARCH and HEAVY model for realized volatility

I don't have much experience with volatility modeling using intraday data but I'm in the process of collecting 5mins data. Currently I have ~6 months of data. Is it enough to use these models with ...
1
vote
1answer
171 views

How would you correct a GARCH model to deal with non mean reverting volatility?

I am currently attempting to model and forecast volatility of bitcoin but have not been able to find a GARCH model that fits the data appropriately. I've used tick data sampled at 1 hour intervals ...
1
vote
3answers
839 views

How to trade volatility?

I am analyzing the volatility of financial stock returns and let's say I have a pretty good model to forecast tomorrows volatility of the stock returns. So let's say for simplicity reasons I have a ...
1
vote
0answers
46 views

How can I do a dynamic GARCH model using extended Kalman filter in R?

Today I was reading an article quoted here, in this article is proposed an adaptive (dynamic) Garch model. How can I do it in R? The use of extended Kalman filter or particle filter is indifferent. I ...
1
vote
0answers
49 views

Why random walk Metropolis Hasting algorithm works bad on GARCH(1,1) parameters estimation

I am trying to estimate the parameters of the GARCH(1,1) model with MCMC method, firstly, I read the paper: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12985/1/MPRA_paper_12985.pdf Metropolis Hasting method is ...
1
vote
0answers
62 views

GARCH parameters

I'm trying to estimate parameters of GARCH(p,q) model. I tried p=1, q=1 with t-distribution errors. Ljung-Box showed no correlation in residuals and squared residual. But the null hypothesis that ...
1
vote
0answers
54 views

volume augmented garch(1,1) model in matlab

Actually I want to add volume traded of a stock in my Garch(1,1) model to forecast the volatility.In Matlab I can specify the model as garch(1,1) and then use estimate and forecast commands.But I am ...
1
vote
0answers
61 views

rugarch and rolling estimation

I use Rugarch for a long time in order to calibrate GARCH models on FX rates time series and perform simulations. I am trying to understand the ugarchroll method. However even if I can find plenty of ...
1
vote
0answers
386 views

GJR-GARCH modeling in stata

I am wanting to run a GJR-Garch model in stata and I am having problems identifying what command I need to put into the system. When using the commands I receive two different ways to do so and I am ...
0
votes
2answers
396 views

garchOxFit in R

Could someone please help me with trying to get the Ox interface to work in R. I followed the steps outlined in this paper (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1752095), but I get the ...
0
votes
2answers
122 views

what volatility do we calculate using GARCH model

what volatility do we calculate using GARCH model, Historical vol or Implied vol or Future Vol or Actual vol.
0
votes
2answers
768 views

Optimal lag length selection criterion in GARCH(p,q) model using MATLAB

As assessed by the title, I'm trying to estimate a GARCH(p,q) model to forecast stock market volatility and, in order to be able to do that, I've to identify the optimal number of lags, p and q, to ...
0
votes
1answer
27 views

Explain the unconditional covariance in Dynamic Conditional correlation( DCC ) GARCH model

Confused about the unconditional covariance matrix in a DCC GARCH model. Could anyone help me understand it? My understanding is that we get the unconditional covariance before based on the data sets. ...
0
votes
1answer
52 views

How to fit a SARIMA + GARCH in R?

I'd like to fit a non stationary time series using a SARIMA + GARCH model. I have not found any package that allow me to fit this model. I'm using rugarch: model=ugarchspec( variance.model = ...
0
votes
1answer
21 views

When the two time series with different length, how could we analysis them with a bivariate GARCH model?

At this moment, i need to do the analysis of rouble/us dollars exchange rate and the stock market index in Russia, I prefer to do that in a multivariate GARCH model. However, I have a question about ...
0
votes
0answers
41 views

Dummy variable and negative estimation in GARCH (1.1)

I am trying to use GARCH model for my research. However, when I am running them, I see negative value for alpha and beta. How I can restrict them so that they do not provide me any negative value. Is ...
0
votes
0answers
19 views

garchOxFit in R-oxo file does not match

Could someone please help me with trying to get the Ox interface to work in R. I get the following errors as output: This version may be used for academic research and teaching only Link error: ...
0
votes
0answers
72 views

Volatility clustering but (G)ARCH not good fit

I'm looking at a time series that appears to be white noise. The ACF/PACF are in the test bounds. Applying the Ljung-Box test for various (maximum) lags gives me high p-values (i. e. I cannot reject ...
0
votes
1answer
84 views

Can we model components in a set of multivariate multi-period time-series data?

There are N data sets in periods occurring weekly/monthly, across a 10-year historical timeline. In each period, five dates are observed (labelled a to e), where a denotes the day the period ...
-1
votes
1answer
79 views

Can I do a GARCH model to forecast a time series?

I read this paper https://research.aston.ac.uk/portal/files/240393/AURA_2_unmarked_Energy_demand_and_price_forecasting_using_wavelet_transform_and_adaptive_forecasting_models.pdf the two authors ...