The volatility of the price of the underlying security that is implied by the market price of an option based on an option pricing model.

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12
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2answers
5k views

How to derive the implied probability distribution from B-S volatilities?

The general problem I have is visualization of the implied distribution of returns of a currency pair. I usually use QQplots for historical returns, so for example versus the normal distribution: ...
2
votes
0answers
36 views

Hedging - calculating option prices using implied volatility surface

To hedge a strategy is it accurate "enough" to price an option using an implied vol curve vs moneyness (strike/spot) assuming sticky delta? The moneyness can be read off the chart, its corresponding ...
0
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1answer
61 views

Implied volatility interview question [closed]

If an implied volatility of an out of the money call option goes to infinity,what happens to the delta of the said call option?
2
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1answer
67 views

Using FX ATM/RR/BF Volatility to Estimate Smile

Suppose $S$ is some FX rate, EUR/USD say, and $\sigma_{S}(K,T)$ is the implied volatility for some option written on $S$, sourced from the surface $\sigma_{S}(\cdot,\cdot)$ (alternatively, consider ...
5
votes
1answer
121 views

Variance replication using options

I would like to understand the intuition behind the following question: Why a certain weighted sum of prices of put and calls is equivalent to the implied variance of an underlying? A variance swap ...
0
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0answers
32 views

Use of implied vol averages for expected underlying returns

When computing a single implied volatility value for a particular asset for use in cross sectional regression models, using daily end of day data. There are a few methodologies I've seen to used do ...
1
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3answers
122 views

Direct use of implied volatility

I am not sure to understand exactly the direct use of implied volatility. Let's take an example: if an instrument has a daily volatility of $\sigma$, there is a 68% probability that its value will be ...
2
votes
1answer
138 views

Why is the volatility smile important

One thing I can't understand clearly is why there is so much focus on the volatility smile. Given my knowledge of the Black and Scholes model, this is what I get: People use the volatility smile as a ...
0
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0answers
45 views

Binomial function use in Bezier smoothing

I am using the Bezier method to smooth option volatility curves, which utilised the binomial distribution. Is someone able to clearly explain the interpretation of the binomial distribution in the ...
3
votes
1answer
107 views

Why future (forward) volatility smile is important to path dependent option?

I was wondering why future volatility smile is important to path dependent option and American type option such as Bermudan swaption. It would be best if someone could provide a reference article as ...
1
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3answers
153 views

Implied Vol vs. Calibrated Vol

Consider the Black-Scholes model, in which the log stock return over a time period $\Delta t$ is given by $$ \log(S_{i+1}/S_i) = (\mu - \sigma^2/2)\Delta t + \sigma \sqrt{\Delta t} Z_i, \qquad Z_i ...
2
votes
2answers
171 views

Is implied volatility flawed?

Was going through how Implied Volatility is used by option traders and in delta hedging. Correct me if I am wrong, doesn't IV consider a standard deviation of the stock price over say the past 1 year? ...
8
votes
1answer
180 views

Rich Volatility, Poor Volatility

I have been thinking very hard about properly pricing volatility. Outside of naive AR,ARCH,GARCH forecasting model which employs past data to forecast future vol, how does one "fundamentally" value ...
2
votes
1answer
173 views

Commonly used vol surface calibration model in the industry

I have 2 questions: What is the most commonly used equity option pricing model? I learned jump diffusion at school, read about Hensen and a few other models online. I am actually only calibrating ...
2
votes
1answer
97 views

Why is IV different between put and call of same strike

In his book 'Dynamic Hedging' Nassim Taleb says that the volatility of an OTM put should be exactly equal to that of a corresponding in the money call of same strike. But in option chains, the ...
4
votes
0answers
69 views

“Extract” the density of the underlying, given the implied volatility “surface”

Suppose given implied volatility quotations $\widehat{\sigma}(T_i,K_j)$ of call options on an underlying $S$ for various expiries $T_i$'s and strikes $K_j$'s. I am interested in the following problem ...
0
votes
0answers
88 views

Implied volatility from American options using python

I am currently trying to construct volatility surface from american option prices (using Cox-Ross-Rubinstein tree) in Python 2.7. Below you can find the code I came up with. Any corrections would be ...
1
vote
0answers
27 views

Calculate minimum IV increase to offset theta

How would one calculate the minimum implied volatility increase necessary to offset theta decay? IV is typically a percentage, while theta is a dollar value. In theory I think I could look at what ...
1
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0answers
39 views

Hedge volatility decreases

My particular options positions are typically a long delta, and long vega. Decreases in implied volatility, or specifically the VIX, can drastically alter the profitability of my position. Is there a ...
1
vote
1answer
130 views

Implied Volatility Calculation

I want to calculate the implied volatility from the option data that I took from Bloomberg (call Option written on S&P500 index with the maturity of 19-Dec-2009 and strike of 1300), but volatility ...
1
vote
1answer
97 views

Effect of vol smile on risk neutral probability of ITM

I was asked in an interview about how the vol smile affect the price of a binary option, which is essentially the Prob(ITM) under risk neutral measure. My thought is that the implied vol at spot ...
0
votes
0answers
36 views

Impact of Implied skew variations on future prices

I want to test the relationship between of the oil implied volatility skew and oil future prices. I'm lost regarding the method to test the relationship. I was thinking about a regression but I'm ...
0
votes
2answers
72 views

How to assess stock price movement from implied volatility?

Assume that: - The underlying is at 100 - The implied volatility of ATM call/put is 30%. Then, is it correct that expected 1-standard-deviation move over the next month is calculated as: $$100 * ...
3
votes
4answers
271 views

Does an implied volatility always exist for a binary option?

I'm trying to compute the implied volatility of a binary option but I cannot get some of the strikes to reach a convergent solution using either a Monte Carlo pricing model or an analytical Black ...
0
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0answers
6 views

Will a back month leg in call calendar lose value if underlying goes down

If I buy a call calendar and underlying drops 5%, the front month short call will get further out of money and will lose value, resulting in a gain since I am short the front month option. What about ...
3
votes
2answers
221 views

Does higher vega imply higher IV and vice versa

If an option A has higher vega than option B, does that also mean that A has a higher IV than B? I understand that by definition, a higher vega means that A's price is more sensitive to its IV than B. ...
2
votes
1answer
72 views

If an option went down in value, how much is due to theta decay and how much due to fall in IV

Let us say that there was a stock trading at 100 and the 105 call was trading at 3 $. with 1 month to go Now stock went up to 104 after 15 days, and the call dropped to 2.80 $, to the call buyer's ...
5
votes
1answer
172 views

How to approximate the time to mean reversion for implied volatility

Given an option and its implied volatility, and also the mean value of the implied volatility over the last 30 days, if we find that the current IV is significantly (> 1 std dev.) away from the mean, ...
1
vote
2answers
144 views

Why a calendar spread is a preferred strategy in a low volatility period

What is it about a calendar spreadas opposed to other spreads(e.g vertical spread) that makes it such a popular strategy for a period of low implied volatility? Is it that when low volatility turns ...
1
vote
1answer
66 views

Why implied volatility is less for the back month option even though the back month option is more expensive

Why is the implied volatility of this option at the ATM strike (18$) greater in the front month (March) than in a further month (Oct). The Oct month has 43%, but the front month has 54%. Should not ...
0
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0answers
11 views

Will implied volatilities rise by same amount across time and across strikes in lieu of an earnings report or a news event

It is said that implied volatility of an option rises leading up to an earnings report or a pending news event like FDA trial, a possible takeover,elections(?) etc. My question is, implied volatility ...
3
votes
2answers
266 views

Why an option has sometimes and implied volatility greater than 100%?

Sometimes, in an option chain, the implied volatility of an option is greater than 100% . How is this possible? I mean, it is possible for 100$ stock to increase more than 100%, but not decrease more ...
5
votes
3answers
132 views

Why does the volatility smile flatten as maturities increase?

First, I can't find a purely "financial" explanation for this. Also the only mathematical explanation I've found so far was using the large deviations theory, which is quite complex. Is there a ...
10
votes
4answers
6k views

How should I calculate the implied volatility of an American option in a real-time production environment?

There are many models available for calculating the implied volatility of an American option. The most popular method, employed by OptionMetrics and others, is probably the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein model. ...
2
votes
2answers
125 views

VIX-implied Volatility calculator

Does anybody know any implied volatility calculator for VIX Options, possibily in Matlab? For Vanilla Options, I'm currently employing this function which is very fast and reliable (much more than ...
0
votes
0answers
42 views

Implied Vola from historical option prices

I have daily Close data of ODAX-options, obtained from ivolatility.com. One third of the daily data shows premiums that are just above the inner value. Even when inserting an implied vola of almost ...
1
vote
0answers
68 views

Volatility Surface Constituents, do's and dont's

Recently I have been working a lot with implied volatility and volatility surfaces. The basic idea is easy to follow: 1) Gather market prices of options at different (Strike,Expiry) 2) Calculate ...
0
votes
1answer
64 views

Implied Volatility Calculation for Deep In The Money Calls, Numerical Issues

I have two implementations for finding the implied volatility under Black-Scholes formula. One is bisection and the other is brent's method. (I know Newton-Raphson is popular due to speed and will ...
0
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0answers
12 views

How does implied volatility of puts relate to strike price in presence of negative news? [duplicate]

There is a lot of literature available but i don't kind understand that if there is a negative news about a stock with the traders why do puts with lower strike tend to have higher implied volatility ...
2
votes
1answer
162 views

Some questions about implied volatilities and how to generate theoretical prices when market prices are not available

I am building a little Excel file that take some option prices in input and plots the volatility smile/surface. I have a script that reads market prices from the option chain for 3 different ...
3
votes
2answers
275 views

How to exploit calendar arbitrage?

Say we are looking at European Call options in a toy environment with zero deterministic intereset rates, a stock paying no dividends, no repo rates etc. Let C(T,K) be the price of a call with expiry ...
1
vote
1answer
133 views

Historical Implied Volatility Calculation

I'm trying to calculate implied volatility for the FTSE 100 for the last few years. I have all the end of day data from LIFFE for the last few years. I have combined the data by weighting the ...
0
votes
0answers
59 views

How do I track implied volatility of specific delta?

I'm a newbie with respects to volatility trading and options. I recently purchased a book on the topic called "Trading Implied Volatility -An introduction" by Simon Gleadall. It's been one of the most ...
1
vote
3answers
328 views

forward implied volatility skew

I would like to calculate implied forward volatility skew. I have stochastic volatility monte carlo. What kind of payoff do I need to price and how to use Black() formula to calculate the implied ...
1
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2answers
56 views

Why IV shares an inverse relationship with underlying

Why does implied volatility usually fall when underlying rises and rises when underlying falls? Implied volatility is a length of one standard deviation. From this definition, is it possible without ...
3
votes
2answers
116 views

Relation between IV and SD

In option pricing, volatility naturally appeared through the Black-Scholes (BS) model where it was a coefficient for the linear diffusion term $\sigma S\,\mathrm dW_t$, and as such represented the ...
3
votes
1answer
467 views

Why does Skew measure remain more-or-less constant for Listed Expiries?

I have looked at the Variance Swap Papers published by GS-VarSwap and JPM-VarSWap where they talk about approximation to VarSwap strike using ATMF vol and Skew (slope of the volatility skew for 90-110 ...
3
votes
2answers
143 views

Is there a better way to price options than with historical volatility?

I know that annualized historical volatility calculated with closing prices is a much rougher estimate than implied volatility for the correct "volatility" parameter in options pricing models. ...
1
vote
1answer
132 views

Implied volatility and pricing of vanilla options

As far as I understood, implied volatility (IV) is a lucky parametrization of the vanilla option's price. That is, instead of deciding how much the call worth now, you can decide on its IV and put ...
0
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0answers
74 views

Vanna-Volga method to infer vol surface with just few realtime tick data

My broker gives me the opportunity to get realtime tick data for up to 50 fields. Since I would like to monitor option chains, this amount of data is very limited. Suppose I am interested in ...