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3
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1answer
159 views

Integrating log-normal

The usual log normal model in differential form is: $dS = \mu S dt + \sigma S dX$ where $dX$ is the stochastic part, so $\frac{dS}{S} = \mu dt + \sigma dX$ (1) and we normally solve this by ...
9
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3answers
2k views

How to calculate future distribution of price using volatility?

I want to create a lognormal distribution of future stock prices. Using a monte carlo simulation I came up with the standard deviation as being $\sqrt{(days/252)}$ $*volatility*mean*$ $\log(mean)$. ...
5
votes
1answer
2k views

Annualzing the log of daily returns riddle

Two popular ways to measure returns are Arithmetic returns and Log returns. Let's define arithmetic (simple period) returns as: P(t) - P(t-1) / P(t-1). Let's define log return as Ln( P(t)/P(t-1) ) or ...