The tag has no wiki summary.

learn more… | top users | synonyms

11
votes
3answers
2k views

Categories of systematic trading strategies?

What are the main categories of systematic trading strategies (e.g. momentum, mean reversion), as might be considered by an index or fund-of-fund analyst? Are there any common sub-strategies?
10
votes
2answers
2k views

Is there a standard method for quantifying mean-reversion for use in directional trading?

Assuming a directional strategy (no pairs or spread trades) is there a "standard" method for quantifying mean-reversion? Should auto-correlation, variance ratios, hurst exponent, or some other measure ...
7
votes
2answers
3k views

How to build a mean reverting basket?

I have been playing with mean reverting pairs, but seems that most of the low hanging fruit (ie pairs) have been squeezed already. I would like to start with mean reverting baskets (>2 securities) in ...
6
votes
3answers
3k views

R code for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process

Can any one help me with some R code to run Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process?
6
votes
4answers
921 views

Threshold calculation for buying a mean-reverting asset

I am trying to figure-out an optimal policy for buying a unit when its price follows a mean-reverting price process (Ornstein–Uhlenbeck), when I have a finite time deadline for buying the unit. I ...
6
votes
3answers
291 views

Is a stationary process necessarily mean-reverting?

Intuitively, a stationary stochastic process needs to be mean-reverting. This should follow immediately from the definition of stationarity: the mean of the process needs to be constant over time, so ...
5
votes
1answer
1k views

Does mean reverting imply mean stationary?

If I have a time series that exhibits mean reverting properties, does it necessarily mean that the time series is mean stationary?
5
votes
2answers
2k views

How are momentum and reversion long/short strategies dynamically combined in trading?

I'm trying to understand how to combine two strategies dynamically in trading: one mean-reversion and the other momentum. One way (also the simplest one) of doing this is by scaling/normalizing ...
5
votes
1answer
149 views

How to approximate the time to mean reversion for implied volatility

Given an option and its implied volatility, and also the mean value of the implied volatility over the last 30 days, if we find that the current IV is significantly (> 1 std dev.) away from the mean, ...
4
votes
2answers
570 views

Statistical significance of a pair trading strategy

How can I test the significance of a pair trading strategy, i.e. that the H0 is "The strategy has no predicting power". I was considering to use the technique in Evidence Based Technical Analysis ...
3
votes
1answer
91 views

The meaning of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck parameters

I am trying to understand theOrnstein-Uhlenbeck process $dX_t = \kappa(\theta-X_t)dt + \sigma dW_t$ my question is what is the meaning of the parameters? and assuming that we know those parameters ...
3
votes
2answers
481 views

Entry and exit points for very short mean-reverting timeseries

I have a model specifying a cointegration relationship on a number of transaction-level timeseries. I would like to specify entry and exit points for trades where these points ideally would be just ...
2
votes
1answer
328 views

Why is the mean time-dependent in the Hull-White interest rate model?

In the Vasicek interest-rate model, the interest rate reverts to a constant mean. This makes sense to me. In my conception, the mean ought to be time-invariant, since interest rates don't follow an ...
2
votes
1answer
84 views

Estimating mean reversion

I've read in some places that mean reversion parameters for a rates model, eg Hull White, can be estimated directly from the current yield curve. However I've not been able to find anything more on ...
2
votes
2answers
86 views

Why is OU process stationary?

The mean and variance of OU process have time dependence (exponentially decay in time). So they are not constant in time. How can it to be stationary?
1
vote
2answers
72 views

How can I estimate the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck paramters of some mean reverting data that I have on R?

I have mean reverting data (Difference of 2 stock prices, that I want to do pairs trading on). I want to simulate my own mean reverting data as similar as possible to the real data that I have. The ...
1
vote
1answer
1k views

How is mean reversion implied by different valuations of Bermudan swaptions?

Someone told me that mean reversion can be implied by the different valuations of bermudan swaptions when using different methods for volatility calibration. Does anyone know what this means?
1
vote
1answer
592 views

Two prices pass the cointegration test but there is a trend. How to check stationarity?

Below is a spread built with two ETFs that pass the cointegration test i.e. Adjusted Dickey Fuller, adfTest(type="nc") in R's fUnitRoots with a p-value < 0.01. The red line is the trendline. What ...
0
votes
2answers
184 views

Getting the next price of a GBM with reversion

Here is the "twin" question of Getting the next price of a GBM (Geometric Brownian Motion) but for GBM with reversion As in that case, I'd like to write a formula for the next price, as function of: ...
0
votes
0answers
30 views

variance ratio for pair-trading

I am using the variance ratio test to check whether my sequence is mean reverting in that test there is a parameter n, How in general I choose this n? or what is the meaning of this parameter? ...
0
votes
0answers
139 views

Exact value of mean reversion rate knowing terminal value of the process

Let you have the following mean reverting process: $\text{d}x_{t}=a(\theta-x_{t})\text{d}t$, where the diffusion term is absent, that is this process is not stochastic. Let you know the value of ...
0
votes
0answers
361 views

Mean Reverting Spread

I have constructed a mean reverting spread using two indexes. I know they have to be mean reverting, but when plotted side by side they are mean reverting for a little bit and then deviate and head ...