# Tagged Questions

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### Calibration: comparing models

Exponential Lévy models fall in two main categories: jump diffusion models and infinite activity Lévy models. For my paper, I study jump diffusion models and in particular Merton's model (i.e normall ...
127 views

### GARCH volatility modeling, squared returns, and convergence

After reading some more of Volatility Trading, I decided to try to make a simple volatility model using daily log returns of an ETF I follow. It turns out "simple" is sort of relative. Unfortunately, ...
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### How to measure practically the performance of Venture Capital backed tech firms following an IPO?

I am currently writing a thesis about whether the fact that a tech firm backed by venture capital companies achieves higher returns following an IPO (Horizon of 3 years). I have about 800 tech ...
54 views

### Model reference price of Limit order book

first of all, the description of this Stackexchange forum says its for professionals or academics. I'm doing a lot of self studying and with that I was able to understand some white papers but still I'...
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### Calibration of intensity model

I could use some advice on calibration of stochastic intensity models. I am thinking that the CIR model is most suitable, as it can not take negative values (when feller condition is satisfied). I ...
3k views

### Why aren't econometric models used more in Quant Finance?

There is a big body of literature on econometric models like ARIMA, ARIMAX or VAR. Yet to the best of my knowledge practically nobody is making use of that in Quantitative Finance. Yes, there is a ...
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### How to fit model implied forward curve with market forward curve for Ornstein-Uhlebeck?

I have a spread option model of 2 correlated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck commodity prices that I estimate the parameters of with Maximum Likelihood. What is the formula for introducing the additional ...
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### Problems with a Black-Scholes modified equation

I haven't really studied much financial mathematics until about 2 months ago so I'm quite new to this stuff, so I'm sorry if this is a trivial question. At the moment I'm trying to work out what the ...
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### Is there a way to meaningfully generate daily returns from monthly?

I have a set of 7 investments in a portfolio and I need to optimize the weightings based on some exposures to various markets/styles/economic factors. I was hoping to do some sort of simple exposure ...
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### What is the effect of mean-reversion on an upper barrier knock-out call option?

Consider a mean-reverting normal model for an underlying $dX^{(1)}_t=-\kappa X^{(1)}_tdt+\sigma^{(1)} dW^{(1)}_t$, for fixed time-independent constants, $\kappa$ (mean-reversion) and $\sigma^{(1)}$ (...
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### Automate selection of BIC-minimizing ARIMA(1,0,X) model

I want to estimate an ARIMA(1,0,X) model. The MA(X) in the model is selected to minimize BIC. I have the following code employing the function auto.arima from "...
80 views

### Generating random yields

I would like to test different methods for fitting a yield curve, like the Nelson-Siegel, cubic splines etc. I would like to generate random yield to maturity data, that somehow reflects the common ...
57 views

### Modeling Interest-only Mortgages

First post on this forum - happy to be here. Please give feedback if this is off-topic so I can more meaningfully contribute moving forward. Can we infer a range of future all-in costs for I/O ARMs ...
123 views

### Modelling and forecasting mixed frequency financial data

I was wondering if someone could provide some guidance to me. I would like to Combine various financial data of mixed frequencies (some daily, weekly, some quarterly) to a composite index. I have ...
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### VAR models for log-returns?

I am wondering if Vector Autoregression (and other autoregressive models) is a sound modelling for the daily (not high-frequency!) log-returns of time series from liquid financial markets. One can ...
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### Models crumbling down due to negative (nominal) interest rates

Given that the negative interest rates on a lot of sovereign bonds with maturity under 10 years are trading in the negative (nominal) interest rate territory (recently also the short term EURIBOR has ...
234 views

### Covariance structure of call option surface

Assume the observed call option prices $C(K_i,T_i)$ for $i = 1,\dots,N$ are disturbed by some unknown measurement noise $\epsilon$. What would an appropriate covariance structure be for $\epsilon$? ...
225 views

### How to forecast bond price with time series

I have the goal of being able to develop a model that can forecast the future prices of european government bond (or other private bonds), particularly from the historical prices and returns of the ...
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### How to compute the conditional expected value of a geometric brownian motion?

I'm working on a project, and I have to use the cumulative and conditional expected value of the variations of a stock following a Geometric Brownian Motion. I know that the cumulative is as follows :...
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### How to estimate parameters of geometric brownian motion with time-varying mean?

Does anyone know how to estimate $A$, $\sigma_1$,$\sigma_2$ from the following system? $$dx = \mu_t x dt + \sigma_1 x dB_x$$ $$d\mu = A(\bar\mu - \mu) dt + \sigma_2 dB_\mu$$ Variation in $x$ could ...
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### What methods - inspired by Haavelmo’s Structural Econometrics - can show that a partial equilibrium model is unreliable? [closed]

According to Spanos 2014 Revisiting Haavelmo's Structural econometrics: Bridging the gap between theory and data Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models are statistically inadequate, in such an ...
279 views

### Black-Litterman, how to choose the uncertainty in the views $\Omega$ for smooth transitions form prior to posterior

In Black-Litterman we get a new vector of expected returns of the form: \begin{align} \Pi_{BL} = \Pi + \underbrace{\tau \Sigma P^T[P\tau\Sigma P^T+\Omega]^{-1}}_{\text{correction}}[Q-P\Pi] \end{align} ...
290 views

### Using Financial Ratios to get credit rating or PD

Hello I'm looking for papers, aside from ones that use CDS spreads, about credit rating development or estimating default probability based on financial ratios that also include methodology and maybe ...
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### Credit Rating or Probability of Default from Financial Ratios

Does anyone know of any papers about credit rating development or probability of default estimation done based on financial ratios that also include methodology and maybe good/bad criteria? Something ...
379 views

### How to find the best fitting GARCH model for a portfolio composed of 3 ETFs in R?

I am doing a project for my class Financial Time Series in which I am trying to forecast my portfolio log returns using a GARCH fit. I am having a bit of trouble determining the best way to fit this ...
113 views

### How to model the effect of earnings surprises on long-term returns?

I'm looking into modeling the relationship between EPS announcement surprises with long-term returns (1 quarter to 3 years with intervals). I've based my current methodology off papers looking at the ...
313 views

### Predict Futures Prices based on weather + agricultural data

I’m working in the area of Data Mining and have come up with the following idea for my Masters project.The text may not be the best structured but it’s a working draft to give you a quick idea. ...