I have written a model for predicting the winner of UFC fights. My model calculates the probability of each fighter to win a given match. I have back tested the model and found it to be very ...
I'm building an model on different loans' NPL rate. The problem is NPL rates are always affected by the market. When NPL rates move in trend, my model will fail the back-testing. Assuming $x(t)$ is a ...
Background: Kupiec P. in 1995, published paper "Techniques for Verifying the Accuracy of Risk Management Models" on Journal of Derivatives, v3, P73-84, it's a Unconditional Coverage Tests designe for ...
In recent months I've come to the conclusion that there are not only certain regimes in the markets (like bear or bull) but phases where all models fail because we are in uncharted territory. The ...
Reading up on quantitative methods, model development, and back-testing, one obvious question springs to mind: What should one ask of a prototyping (model testing) framework? I know a lot of people ...
I recently read a blog entry where some statistics were generated for a common technical analysis indicator. Below is the link. My question shows up close to the bottom under the name bill_080, in ...