Questions tagged [modeling]

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Explicit pythonic building of Flat Forward Curve using Changes assumed from central bank meetings to price FRAs

This question is related to the following questions asked previously, primarily the first: Using QuantLib to build Flat Forward Curve using Changes assumed from central bank meetings to price FRAs ...
1 vote
1 answer
56 views

How to construct continuous futures contracts with multiple maturities

I am trying to replicate the Schwartz-Smith (2000) model and having an issue understanding what the data is and how to generate it. Specifically, the authors use a table of continuous futures with ...
0 votes
1 answer
58 views

Two-period binomial model probability question

I have started to work with given two period binomial model S(0)=100 u=1.25 d=0.8 r=0.05 and the market probability of stock going up each period is p=0.55. I am trying to calculate two probabilities; ...
1 vote
1 answer
96 views

Is the impact of "small" orders on market dynamics more than is commonly assumed?

When modeling the dynamics of a market, a common assumption is that the impact of a "small" (e.g. very low percentage of daily traded volume) order on current and future observations of the ...
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65 views

Potential Future Exposure for vanilla swap

I need to calculate the PFE for vanilla swap. I wonder if it makes sense to simulate the MC scenarios with a 1-factor Hull white model. In my opinion, this model only allows parallel curve ...
3 votes
2 answers
370 views

Is there an efficient method or technique to find an arbitrage between two FX dealers?

Crossposted on Mathematics SE I was able to solve the following problem and find the arbitrage but only after spending a long time on it and trying out different possibilites. Is there a method or ...
8 votes
5 answers
9k views

Predicting price movements on a betting exchange

On a betting exchange the price (the odds that an event will happen expressed as a decimal, 1/(percentage chance event occurring) of a runner can experience a great deal of volatility before the event ...
38 votes
2 answers
15k views

How useful is Markov chain Monte Carlo for quantitative finance?

Naively, it seems that Bayesian modeling, structural models particularly, would be quite useful in finance because of their ability to incorporate market idiosyncrasies and produce accurate ...
1 vote
0 answers
82 views

Climate Models in Banking - what modeling are banks currently doing?

I'm mostly interested in knowing what banks are doing in Ireland and other Western European countries. I know, from Google searches, that banks are currently doing climate risk stress-testing, but I'm ...
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Modelling support and resistance using sde

This initiative was sparked by the identification of cointegrated pairs, fitting them to an OU process, and devising an optimal strategy based on the OU process—areas that have already been well ...
3 votes
0 answers
148 views

Models for tick-by-tick / high-frequency data

I've spoken to one or two persons at some market making shops, and I'm under the impression that for modelling tick data, aside from the rise of ML, a pure jump process such as the variance gamma ...
0 votes
0 answers
73 views

Loan modelling using Opensource risk engine (ORE)

The problem is to calculate the cash flow schedule for a simple fixed rate loan where principal amortization periodicity is not equal to interest payment periodicity. For example, amortization is ...
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0 answers
261 views

Is there a common way that level 2 and time & sales data are analyzed together?

Let's say that for a single asset, we have a data stream from which we receive both level 2 order book updates (price level/quantity updates) as well as time & sales updates (grouped recent trades)...
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Pricing non-vanilla options on EuroStoxx50 dividend futures

Liquid vanilla EuroStoxx50 dividend futures options quoted on Eurex are calls or puts whose expiries are the same as the expiry of the underlying futures contract. Is there any "simple" ...
3 votes
1 answer
329 views

Target variables in high frequency trading [closed]

Given that we are a market taker (removing liquidity from the limit order book through market orders), what should we be trying to forecast? It seems like the most pertinent thing for us to forecast ...
0 votes
1 answer
311 views

How are order book and trade data consolidated/distilled into a more(?) tractable form for modeling?

Let's say that there's some asset traded on an exchange and that, for this asset, I have access to a snapshot of the limit order book (price level and quantity for bids and offers) and subsequent ...
2 votes
0 answers
125 views

Is there daily SPX level data going back to 1927?

While attempting to model the SPX index over time, I found a source here that purportedly has historical daily SPX data going back to 1789 which very likely seems to be backcasted since the ~500 stock ...
4 votes
1 answer
358 views

Credit Rating vs Bond Yield

I am looking for some references on quantifying the dependence between credit rating and bond yield. I have some data (found some Bloomberg indices which give average yield based on credit rating), ...
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0 answers
35 views

References/Direction on what functional of wealth to optimize for a given goal?

I seem to have gotten stuck trying to approach trading strategy development from a financial mathematics(?) perspective. To start, let: $T \gt 0.$ $\mathcal{T}$ be a closed non-empty set of $\mathbb{...
3 votes
0 answers
124 views

How to calibrate an O-U process based on historical data?

Background: I have been working on my master thesis project for the last few months and gave the final presentation on the 2023-06-01. As a part of the master thesis project, I did a complete ...
2 votes
1 answer
243 views

Is there a general approach to predicting future (vanilla) option prices in practice?

I realize that this question may be verging on asking for the proprietary/"secret", so if suggestion of a general approach that doesn't divulge details isn't really possible, I understand. ...
14 votes
2 answers
2k views

Models crumbling down due to negative (nominal) interest rates

Given that the negative interest rates on a lot of sovereign bonds with maturity under 10 years are trading in the negative (nominal) interest rate territory (recently also the short term EURIBOR has ...
11 votes
7 answers
8k views

What distribution to assume for interest rates?

I am writing a paper with a case study in financial maths. I need to model an interest rate $(I_n)_{n\geq 0}$ as a sequence of non-negative i.i.d. random variables. Which distribution would you advise ...
1 vote
1 answer
473 views

Understanding out-of-sample performance metrics for Realized Volatility

I fitted several models on a realized volatility process and then proceeded to obtain out-of-sample results. I'm struggling to interpret these results apart from to tell model A seems better than ...
1 vote
1 answer
130 views

Term Structure Modelling - Why model the state prices and not an asset or rate

When modelling stocks we specify the model in terms of the dynamics of the stock itself (e.g. in Black-Scholes, Heston and SABR - often denoted $S$). However, as I am reading about Term Structure ...
6 votes
3 answers
2k views

Modelling and forecasting mixed frequency financial data

I was wondering if someone could provide some guidance to me. I would like to Combine various financial data of mixed frequencies (some daily, weekly, some quarterly) to a composite index. I have ...
1 vote
0 answers
160 views

how to estimate Geometric Brownian Motion parameters on long timeseries [closed]

I'm working on a 50-years financial timeseries and I would like to simulate GBM paths from it. The first thing I'm supposed to do is to estimate the drift $\mu$ and the volatility $\sigma$ parameters. ...
19 votes
2 answers
3k views

How to build a regime-switching model which knows its own limits?

In recent months I've come to the conclusion that there are not only certain regimes in the markets (like bear or bull) but phases where all models fail because we are in uncharted territory. The ...
12 votes
3 answers
797 views

What is a commonly accepted econometric model for volume?

What is the gold standard econometric model for volume? Base model for price changes is the autoregressive (AR) model and GARCH(1,1) for volatility. Is there any survey about econometric models used ...
0 votes
2 answers
198 views

Is there any utility to being able to predict an assets current price?

I was playing around with some models, and I'm able to predict a stock's current price based on the current prices of other stocks. This model is extremely accurate, although I can't see any use of ...
1 vote
0 answers
43 views

Fitting model between security price and intraday volatility

I'm trying to construct a model which shows how much the closing price of a security ($P_t$) differs from the VWAP of that security on that day ($VWAP_t$). I'm calling this measure the "VWAP ...
0 votes
1 answer
130 views

Applying the Gordon stock model when there is one change in the dividend growth rate [closed]

Below is a problem I did. I am hoping somebody can confirm I did it correctly, or tell me where I went wrong. Problem: ABC Corp. has just paid a dividend of \$3 per share. You—an experienced analyst—...
0 votes
1 answer
191 views

Separating jumps and diffusion

I want to model energy prices. I have two markets, lets say market 1 and 2. Market 1 is continuously traded, and I will assume it follows brownian motion. So the value of the asset could be defined ...
1 vote
0 answers
71 views

Methods of predicting liquidity consumption

Let's consider limit order book for a certain stock. By liquidity consumers i mean traders that buy/sell shares using market orders. What are the known methods/models for predicting total amount of ...
1 vote
0 answers
84 views

Replication of results shown in 'Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Returns' by Bali, Engle, and Murray

I'm currently trying to reproduce some results shown in the book 'Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Returns' by Bali, Engle, and Murray. More precisely, I try to compute Table 7.3 and 9.1. ...
2 votes
0 answers
444 views

VAR models for log-returns?

I am wondering if Vector Autoregression (and other autoregressive models) is a sound modelling for the daily (not high-frequency!) log-returns of time series from liquid financial markets. One can ...
0 votes
1 answer
158 views

What are the most common methods to model fat tails in the changes of asset prices?

I was wondering what the most common, or most popular, ways - in both academia, and industry - there were to model the fat tails of volatility in asset prices changes. I am presuming a basic Brownian ...
2 votes
2 answers
846 views

Why would exchange rates follow a geometric brownian motion?

I'm reading Shreve's Stochastic Calculus for Finance. On page 382, he begins talking about exchange rates: Finally, there is an exchange rate $Q(t)$, which gives units of domestic currency per unit ...
0 votes
1 answer
113 views

Out of Sample Results Decay Rapidly With Prediction Window or Embargo

So I am beginning to dabble my toe into quantitative finance and am trying to validate some model results and am having difficulty thinking about what they tell me. Here's my situation: I'm trying to ...
2 votes
3 answers
3k views

Accrual in Default Derivation of Credit CDS Curve

In Trading Credit Curves Part I by JP Morgan we have that each point on a credit (CDS) curve represents: $$PV(\text{Fee Leg}) = PV(\text{Contingent Leg})$$ which is $$S_n \sum_{i=1}^{n}\Delta_i ...
11 votes
1 answer
2k views

Market Making Strategies Found by Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Equation

Im working my way through the book "Algorithmic and High-Frequency Trading" (AHFT) by Cartea, Jaimungal and Penalva and i'm curious to see how the market making model with an exponential utility ...
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0 answers
165 views

Does anyone have all of Paul Wilmott's "Spreadsheets and VBA" files?

I couldn't find it on his website and the only ones I have are the files contained in the Introduction to Quantitative Finance's CD.
2 votes
1 answer
940 views

Can an IRS have a different payment calendar by leg?

I have to model IRS in an IT system and I have a question related to this modeling. Can an IRS have a different payment calendar by leg ? Thanks and regards
1 vote
0 answers
59 views

How to estimate lambda from NAGARCH submodel in R

I am trying to estimate the model="fGARCH", submodel="NAGARCH" from the rugarch package in R. However, when I am estimating the parameters, only omega, alpha, beta and gamma are ...
-2 votes
2 answers
307 views

Is it a problem that there are so few stocks in the generalized Black Scholes market? [duplicate]

In the standard Black Scholes market there is only one stock. In the generealized market there can be a finite amount, but my impression is that there are few stocks in the market. The real world ...
0 votes
1 answer
128 views

Non-fixed stationary "conversion"

Dear users of StackExchange, I was wondering why the log returns of a fixed period of time is such a common use in "transforming" a time series into a more stationary one? I thought that ...
4 votes
1 answer
196 views

Reconciling Two Claims About Volatility Under Fat Tails

I have read the Wikipedia article on volatility, and Nassim N. Taleb's Incerto, and found two statements attributed to Mandelbrot's views, which appear to be in contradiction. Taleb (who was mentored ...
1 vote
1 answer
138 views

Backtesting model results, but backtesting output sampled at different frequency than model output

So, I'm trying to backtest a model that computes P&L. This model pulls sensitivities on a weekly basis and applies market shocks to these sensitivities to project quarterly P&L. I want to ...
0 votes
1 answer
151 views

Smoothing of Implied Volatilty

I'm using ATM 30D implied volatility in a model I'm building, but need to smooth out the data. Is the best way just to use exponential smoothing or are there any better alternatives?
0 votes
1 answer
152 views

Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) for the probability of default of corporates

I work in the financial industry and we want to implement an internal rating model for our clients (think corporates large or mid , banks etc. some listed on an exchange some others not). We want to ...

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