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2
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0answers
255 views

GARCH modelling and forecasting

I have a few questions regarding GARCH modelling and forecasting and it would be great if someone could help me. I am modelling the log return of oil spot prices using various GARCH models: GARCH, ...
2
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0answers
2k views

Models for simulating FX movements

My goal is to develop a model to simulate long term FX movements. (I am not sure if long term makes any difference, but if it does I am more interested in long term fx movements) These Monte Carlo ...
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0answers
110 views

How to backtest Value at Risk Models using Conditional and Unconditional tests?

I am trying to carry out backtesting on a number of Value at Risk figures i obtained using var/covar, historical, and monte carlo simulation. The two methods im using are the Kupiec test ...
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0answers
66 views

Choosing an optimal dependent variable, regression/model fitting

When I select a certain target variable and model that with either linear regression or some other technique, say naive bayes, I hope to finally arrive at a model which has statistical significance, ...