Tagged Questions

The tag has no usage guidance.

3k views

I'm starting on a project that involves correlating and forecasting Forex time series to news releases. I'm aware of sources such as Thomson Reuter's machine readable news and Dow Jone's Newswire ...
377 views

Why do people always seek finite-variance models for option pricing

For the purpose of getting fatter tails than the Guassian, I have seen people for example use $\alpha$-stable processes to model the stock. But in that case they end up using 'tempered' versions of ...
1k views

Option Pricing Model Calibration In Practice

I'm curious how an option pricing model like the Heston model is calibrated in practice. Here's how I imagine it happens: Let's say I have access to the most recent option prices on a given stock ...
722 views

The Basis of Using Technical Indicators as Inputs

In the process of my research I very often come across academic papers regarding modelling and trading strategies that in one way or another incorporate some technical indicators. For example in some ...
422 views

Is it too important that my residuals be normal? I am Using an ARMA/GARCH model

I am trying to fit an ARMA/GARCH model to a time series. I found that the best candidate is an ARMA(1,0) + GARCH(1,1) with gaussian white noise It has coefficients with p-values near cero and the ...
63 views

Extensions of CIR

I could need some advice on extensions of the CIR model. The standard CIR reads $dr(t)=\kappa(\theta-r(t))dt + \sigma \sqrt{r(t)} dW(t)$. A possible extension, if we would like the short-rate to ...
97 views

CIR model and calibration

I am new to quantitative finance. We know that in the CIR model the short rate can't go negative. My question then concerns calibration of CIR to a ZCB yield curve. Is it (and why?) possible to ...
3k views

Null and Alternative hypothesis for multiple linear regression

I have 1 dependent variable and 3 independent variables. I run multiple regression, and find that the p value for one of the independent variables is higher than 0.05 (95% is my confidence level). I ...
37 views

EGARCH formulation

I am a bit confused about the formulation of the EGARCH(1,1) model. First, we have the error term: $\epsilon_t=\sigma_t*\zeta_t$, where $\zeta_t$ is white noise. Now the EGARCH(1,1) should be:  log(...
297 views

GARCH modelling and forecasting

I have a few questions regarding GARCH modelling and forecasting and it would be great if someone could help me. I am modelling the log return of oil spot prices using various GARCH models: GARCH, ...
2k views

Models for simulating FX movements

My goal is to develop a model to simulate long term FX movements. (I am not sure if long term makes any difference, but if it does I am more interested in long term fx movements) These Monte Carlo ...
163 views

How to backtest Value at Risk Models using Conditional and Unconditional tests?

I am trying to carry out backtesting on a number of Value at Risk figures i obtained using var/covar, historical, and monte carlo simulation. The two methods im using are the Kupiec test (...
105 views

LIBOR 3M and 1M from Vasicek model

I would like to discuss my approach toward modelling of interest rates with respect to its downsides and advantages. My problem is to forecast daily LIBOR 3M and LIBOR 1M over a particular time ...
I have calibrated a stochastic intensity CIR model to CDS data. The model reads $d \lambda_t = \kappa(\theta-\lambda_t)dt+\sigma \sqrt{\lambda_t} dW_t$ When calibrating the parameters I get ...