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2
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2answers
388 views

Ideas about Stochastic volatility models

I am currently working on comparing different models for modelling the volatility and then pricing vanilla options (I use option prices on real stocks in order to calibrate my models and then I ...
5
votes
4answers
1k views

Typical coefficients uses in square-root model for market impact

The square-root model is widely used to model equity market impact. It assumes that volatility, traded volume, total volume, and a spread cost are the drivers of slippage. Jim Gatheral has an ...
5
votes
2answers
174 views

How to derive this approximation of the risk-neutral expectation of the variance?

On the paper Bollerslev, Tauchen and Zhou (2009 RFS) the authors say about equation (15): The corresponding model implied risk-neutral conditional expectation ...
14
votes
2answers
484 views

Which interest rate model for which product

Given the multitude of existing interest rate models (ranging from simple to very complex) it would be interesting to know when the additional complexity actually makes sense. The models I have in ...
0
votes
1answer
37 views

Motivation: Stochastic Interest rate model

what is a reason that someone might be interested in a stochastic-interest model such as the Chen model? Also can you provide me with a link to an easy to read motivational paper/part of a paper on ...
9
votes
3answers
145 views

Validating a Credit Scoring Model without Data

Fellow Quants, Suppose you have a credit scoring model that is developed without the aid of statistics, because (unfortunately) there is no historical default/loss data in your portfolio. The ...
0
votes
1answer
35 views

Why is the forward rate used for the underlying in Black's model?

Why is the forward rate suitable for being used as the underlying in Black's model? Thanks
3
votes
1answer
452 views

mortgage prepayment model

I am trying to develop my own MBS prepayment model. I am confused by the terms SMM and CPR. Are they estimates/models in themselves or are they ACTUAL data for the MBS pool. where can I find actual ...
0
votes
0answers
78 views

residential mortgage prepayment modelling

I'm trying to develop a model for predicting prepayments, after reading several arcticles about it over the net. the model should use market data and be behavioral model (i.e. regression/survival ...
37
votes
7answers
3k views

Paradoxes in quantitative finance

Everyone seems to agree that the option prices predicted by the Black-Merton-Scholes model are inconsistent with what is observed in reality. Still, many people rely on the model by using "the wrong ...
-1
votes
1answer
114 views

Where can I find data source for structural models?

I am starting a project to implement the Black-Merton-Scholes model from this book in R. However, I am looking for, ideally free, data sources. Still I have access to a Bloomberg terminal. Can you ...
11
votes
3answers
818 views

Operating parameters of market makers?

I'd like to get a feel for the operating parameters of official market makers. I'm looking more for discerning characteristics, rather than exact numbers or an exhaustive list of each MM. Examples: ...
5
votes
1answer
201 views

KMV-Merton Probabilties of Default vs Moody's EDF

Moody's used to publish probability of default estimates from their Moody's EDF model, but they have temporarily discontinued it. I understand that the Moody's EDF model is closely based on the Merton ...
15
votes
2answers
1k views

Why isn't the Nelson-Siegel model arbitrage-free?

Assume $X_t$ is a multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, i.e. $$dX_t=\sigma dB_t-AX_tdt$$ and the spot interest rate evolves by the following equation: $$r_t=a+b\cdot X_t.$$ After solving for $X_t$ ...
15
votes
6answers
2k views

George Soros models

Mr. Soros in his books talked about principles which are not used by today's financial mathematics — namely reflexivity of all actions on the market. Simply it can be given by following: ...
2
votes
0answers
31 views

Specifying integration level of time series [closed]

Following model was estimated on 200 observations. How to specify the level of integration of $X_t?$ In brackets there are standard errors and p-value of Breusch-Godfrey test is also shown. ...
12
votes
4answers
3k views

Is there a standard model for market impact?

Is there a standard model for market impact? I am interested in the case of high-volume equities sold in the US, during market hours, but would be interested in any pointers.
1
vote
0answers
80 views

PDE vs TREE vs MC vs Analytical

One what basis the pricing model can be differentiated for particular trade pricing. For exapmle why PDE or Binomial tree or MC or Analytical method will be consider for pricing any trade. Question ...
3
votes
3answers
121 views

Parameters variation in fundraising financial model

I have created quite a large financial model in Excel with lots of input parameters which (after all calculations) have an influence on the output business indicators. Among the input parameters are ...
0
votes
0answers
25 views

Intermediate Project Presentation

I would like to know an ideal plan for explaining/representing Greeks (1st,2nd,3rd) order. The topic seems to be quite vast and very interesting but not possible to cover within a 15 mins time frame, ...
1
vote
1answer
15 views

Measure difference between estimations and historic returns

For every day in a year, I have the return on an asset and the CAPM estimation for the return. I want to measure the average difference between the set of returns and set of estimations. So far, I ...
0
votes
0answers
75 views

How do you calculate the asset drift rate in the Merton model? (used in N(-d2))

Can I replace it with the internal rentability rate? I only have the financial statements and some market data, but I can't find the expected returns anywhere. The goal is to calculate the probability ...
1
vote
1answer
54 views

Is it possible that some types of financial systems can resonate?

Financial systems can certainly be modeled using the same tools physicists use to model dynamic physical systems. The validity of such is evidenced by models such as that developed by Black and ...
5
votes
0answers
65 views

Estimating Number of “Day Trades” from Total Volume of Commodity Futures Contract

Looking at futures data I am trying to calculate/estimate the number of "day trades", i.e. positions that were initiated and closed during the same day, as distinct from those positions that were ...
4
votes
1answer
124 views

What are the empirical limitations to testing market efficiency?

I have encountered a rather elegant argument about the limitations of empirically testing for market efficiency, involving the central point that we do not know whether a result is due to the "true ...
4
votes
1answer
208 views

ARIMA model, cannot get rid of low order ACF spike

I've gone through all the steps to fit a good ARIMA model - I plotted the data, I looked at the ADF tests, I looked at the ACF plot with no AR and MA terms just a constants. I came up with an ...
5
votes
2answers
233 views

Intuition behind interest rate models

I am modelling the 3M yield of US Treasuries using an ARMA/ GARCH approach. Most interest rate models (e.g. Vasicek) describe the process as follows: $r_{t}-r_{t-1} = some ARMA+ \epsilon_t $ ...
0
votes
0answers
51 views

What interest rate dynamics would you suggest to simulate a single swap?

I need to calculate the Potential Future Exposure (PFE) for a single swap (not a portfolio). As far as I know, a stochastic model is needed to simulate the interest rate curves (from here). Could ...
2
votes
1answer
141 views

Negative Eonia rates

I'm curious how the current negative Eonia (Euro OverNight Index Average) rates would impact derivatives pricing. Does it mean that if I post cash collateral to you, I also need to pay you interest? ...
1
vote
0answers
341 views

Autoregressive distributed lag models ADL(p,q) howto in preferably matlab (stata/R/python/C# etc)

Could anyone provide me the details of how to determine the lag order of the distributed lags for an ADL(p,q) model in Matlab or another statistical package (and very much preferably in combination ...
4
votes
2answers
308 views

law of one price, understanding

I am reading about mathematical finance, and I was tipsed to ask the quesiton on this site. It is about the "law of one price". Just first I'll make precise the model my book uses: I have a single ...
4
votes
1answer
350 views

How to find optimal look back in quant trading models

I'm in the process of building a quantitative trading model, I want to improve on the way in which I decide upon a look back length for the indicators. I understand the different pros/cons for very ...
0
votes
1answer
37 views

Common point between IR and Vol option pricing models?

What is the common point between pricing models on options on Interest Rates and options on Volatility?
0
votes
1answer
50 views

GNP/GDP and modelling [closed]

Is GNP a continuous, static or a dynamic model ? What about GDP ? What I do know is that it has yearly discrete values. However, when it is modeled, it becomes a continuous graph. So what exactly is ...
0
votes
0answers
62 views

Sketching payoff diagrams- Straddle and Butterfly (when t tends to 0)

I want to sketch a straddle and a butterfly payoff diagram when t tends to 0. I have searched and have been able to sketch both a butterfly and straddle diagram but fail to proceed when t tends to 0. ...
0
votes
0answers
109 views

Stochastic Volatility for Stocks, FTSE

Can someone help me with calculating Stochastic Volatility (of stocks and options) using SAS or R or Matlab please? I am new to SAS and I am trying to use Heston model, White-Hull model or any other ...
2
votes
0answers
56 views

What is the main reasons to use Miltersen & Schartz (1998) model for commodity futures options

versus a standard Generalised Black and Scholes model (if there are any?) I have read the paper but I am not to sure about its practical implications as would people with more experience using this ...
1
vote
0answers
101 views

Markov switching model estimation

We are testing Markov switching models to forecast risk regimes, similar to the paper by Kritzman, Page and Turkington. We find that in some cases the Baum-Welch algorithm converges very slowly or not ...
2
votes
4answers
189 views

Are there any derivatives which pay amount $a(p-b)^{2}-c$ where $p$ is the price of underling asset?

Are there any derivatives which pay amount $a(p-b)^{2}-c$ where $p$ is the price of underling asset ? (or in the case of options $max(0,a(p-b)^{2}-c)$) I'm not very strict here but I only want to know ...
1
vote
0answers
61 views

Incorporating a stochastic correlation structure into a multi-factor model

I am considering extending a multi-factor fixed income stochastic model (e.g. LIBOR-Market) to use stochastic correlation matrices instead of determinstic ones. For pricing instruments with short ...
5
votes
1answer
509 views

Is Behavioral Finance relevant to quants?

This topic has been prompted by the following question: Measuring Behavioral Finance Effects in Fund/Portfolio Manager Analysis After reading it and the comments below I started thinking whether ...
3
votes
0answers
219 views

How are quants able to verify whether their calculated prices are any good

This question is related to the discussion on Model Validation Criteria However it appeard to be very high level to me and I would like to go more into detail. Not working at a pricing desk the ...
16
votes
5answers
839 views

Model Validation Criteria

Let's say I have a brand new fancy model on some asset class (calibration porcedure included over a set of vanilla options) in which I truly believe I made a step forward comparing to existing ...
1
vote
1answer
325 views

Derivation of the Nelson-Siegel model and proof of arbitrage

1. I am looking for a derivation of the Nelson-Siegel model $y(m)=a+b\left( \frac{1-e^{-\lambda m}}{\lambda m}\right)+c\left( \frac{1-e^{-\lambda m}}{\lambda m} -e^{-\lambda m} \right)$ It is ...
1
vote
0answers
107 views

Recalibrating SABR parameters for Swaption ATM volatility

I understand that the ATM volatility of Swaption moves quite frequently and the SABR will need to be recalibrated. Which parameter should I recalibrate? Is there any financial meanings why we only ...
4
votes
1answer
255 views

Evaluation volatility with Garch model

I want to forecast the volatility (with Garch) of a canadian stock in 5 months with daily returns. How many data do I have to collect ? Thanks.
3
votes
1answer
131 views

Binomial lattice convergence

How do I measure how quickly a binomial lattice converges to an option value as the number of steps is increased? I'm charting option value versus number of steps for various binomial lattice models ...
1
vote
0answers
203 views

Market Standard Pricing Models for Fixed Income Securities (Vanilla)

To clarify my heading, I have been searching for a material that consolidates all standard Fixed Income Security Pricing. E.g. ...
2
votes
0answers
60 views

Calculating the error of a Trinomial Model

I've been trying to find a formula to obtain the maximum relative error a trinomial model with n timesteps will incur given all other inputs as compared to the standard BSM model. I'm concerned mostly ...
2
votes
3answers
458 views

Why do long-term equity return forecast models use dependent observations?

I've been reading up on different models used to forecast the equity risk premium, and I've seen a couple of papers that had questionable methods. For example, this paper by Javier Estrada goes into ...