# Tagged Questions

Monte Carlo simulation methods are a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results.

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### Calculating VaR with Monte Carlo simulation

I would like some help here :) I have a problem calculating VaR with the Monte Carlo Simulation. I have followed then next steps, is this a right way to calculate VaR or I need something more? 1....
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### Distribution of Geometric Brownian Motion

Please let me know where I have been mistaken! Let the SDE satisfied by the GBM $S(t)$ be $$\frac{dS(t)}{S(t)} = \mu dt + \sigma dW(t).$$ Then, the underlying BM $X(t)$ will satisfy  dX(t) = \...
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### Deduce expected exposure profile from option/structure delta?

I am thinking about whether there exists a relationship between the delta of an option (or any structured derivative) and it's expected positive/negative exposure? An intuitive question would be ...
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### Whites Reality Check for Pair Trading

I want to use the Monte Carlo Method described in Aronsons book Evidence based Technical Analysis to test if a given pairs trading strategy is useless. First step there is to randomize the returns of ...
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### Importance Sampling for Least Square Monte Carlo

I am currently trying to implement and model an Importance Sampling estimator for Longstaff and Schwartz algorithm for pricing American put options. It is used such that more paths are in-the-money ...
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### Monte Carlo, convexity and Risk-Neutral ZCB Pricing

I've built a simplistic Excel monte carlo model to price a zero-coupon bond, but it came up with a slightly unepxected result so I wanted to confirm whether my maths is just a little rusty or my model ...
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### American option - Upper bound

I have computed a lower bound for an american option through longstaff and schwartz's algorithm. Now I have to compute the upper bound as andersen and broadie does in their article. Can anybody help ...
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### Finding optimal drift, importance sampling, least square monte carlo

I am working with Importance sampling for Least Squared monte carlo and have now problems understanding the implementation of the Robbins-Monro algorithm for finding the optimal drift for finding ...
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### The difference between the binomial model and monte carlo simulation

In my project I have focused on the least squares method by Longstaff and Schwartz to find the lower bound of the American put option. I also focused on the dual method to find the upper bound of the ...
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### Foresight bias in least square monte carlo

Foresight bias means we tend to over estimate the American option value. This we observe in other areas of statistics - e.g. in sample test almost always gives better prediction than out of sample ...
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### How to price lookback american option when its payment is distributed during its life

I would like to price a floating strike american lookback with a particular feature: I don't want to charge upfront the client, rather I would like to insert a "running fee", some sort of a dividend. ...
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### Monte Carlo approach to RAN bonds in Quantlib or suggestions

This is a problem from Schlogl's book in the chapter on the HJM model: Price option of the RAN instrument with 3 month coupons and maturity 3 years using Monte Carlo(Exercise 4 Range Accrual Note). ...
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### Intraday Value at Risk approximations

We use full valuation of derivatives portfolios using scenarios from historical data. For simple contracts, this is relatively fast. For contracts requiring monte carlo simulation, this becomes ...
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### Portfolio Optimization with Monte Carlo Simulation - How to do it with Excel?

If I have three asset classes and their historical weekly returns for five years, how can I construct a minimum variance portfolio and an efficient frontier plot with Excel? To do that do I have to ...
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### Optimizing stochastic functions numerically

Is there an efficient and commonly used optimization method for "more complex" investment strategies. For instance, say you have a function $f(X_1,...,X_n,c,v)$ where the $X_k$'s are your random ...
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### Simulate correlated Geometric Brownian Motion in the R programming language

In response to this question: How to simulate correlated Geometric brownian motion for n assets? One of the responses provides an implementation in MATLAB: http://www.goddardconsulting.ca/matlab-...
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### Forecast of ARMA-GARCH model in R

I managed to forecast a GARCH model yesterday and run a Monte Carlo simulation on R. Nevertheless, I can't do the same with an ARMA-GARCH. I tested 4 different method but without achieving an ARMA-...
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### Simulation of Heston process

I am currently working on implementing Heston model in matlab for option pricing (in this case I am trying to price a European call) and I wanted to compare the results I obtain from using the exact ...
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### Law of a geometric brownian motion first hitting time (formula dont match Monte Carlo Simulation)

I posted this question before on MSE I need to use it in a small step in the middle of a simulation and I think I'm not getting correct results to this probabilities and so for my all ...
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### Practitioner's criterion for MC pricing convergence

Let's say I have some Interest Rates (IR) pricing model which relies on Monte Carlo pricing and I'd like to benchmark its quality and find out optimal settings (time steps & iterations) per asset ...
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### Heston model - Andersen scheme implementation

I would like to implement Andersen scheme for Heston simulation. On the following snipped is my code for generating asset path: ...
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### Simulating Option Positions VaR with Monte Carlo in Python

I'm trying to calculate VaR for overall option positions. Currently I do a MC simulation for the underlying, and derive the theoretical value of the option from those theoretically. Then I calculate ...
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### Adding Asset Weights To Cholesky Output - Monte Carlo in VBA

I am looking to create a Monte Carlo generator in Excel to plot correlated asset paths for a portfolio containing 1 to 10 assets. I have the correlation matrix for all 10 assets and have performed the ...
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### Monte Carlo simulation of Multifractional Brownian Motion in MATLAB

Code under is taken from http://en.literateprograms.org/Monte_Carlo_simulation_(Matlab) ...
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### Multiple similar values simulation

Perhaps some of you came across the following task that I am trying to automate for @RISK, VOSE or other simulation software? I have a question as we are trying to use the software to estimate the ...
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### Initial values for Heston Model calibration

I'm doing a Heston model in Matlab using simple Monte Carlo simulations (5.000 paths and 2 steps per day, simulating 360 days). When I try to calibrate the Heston parameters using fminsearch it takes ...
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### Monte Carlo simulation returns not normal distributed

I am generating 100,000 paths of SPX out to 1 year using Euler discretization. I look at how S is distributed for 100,000 paths at the 1 year point and I find it is lognormally distributed. I look at ...
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### Price 3m libor autocap with LMM calibrated on 1y swaption data

I need to calculate a price of an autocap contract which is An autocap is similar to a cap, but at most Î³ â‰¤ Î² caplets can be exercised, and they have to be automatically exercised when in the ...
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### Weak convergence of Lookback payoff with correction term

In this article on the Multilevel Monte Carlo method on page 8, http://people.maths.ox.ac.uk/gilesm/files/mcqmc06.pdf, Giles uses a correction term to improve the weak convergence rate of the lookback ...
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### What are the industry standard models for monte carlo simulation of basket options?

I would like to simulate an equity index, a risk free cash account and the yield curve for the purposes of valuing a guarantee on an insurance product that is being backed by both equities and cash. ...
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### Estimating VaR (Value At Risk) with only 3 days of data

I've been given daily stock prices on Day 1, 2 and 3 for 10 stocks (hence 30 data numbers in total) and asked to approximately the 1-day 95% VaR (Value at Risk) on Day 3. I'm not allowed to use any ...
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### Generating process for stock price paths in this paper?

I am reading Longstaff and Schwartz Valuing Aerican Options by Simulation because monte carlo simulations, especially their use in option pricing, is interesting to me. However, I am having some ...
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### measuring portfolio performance using monte carlo simulation

I have a financial portfolio comprising standard asset classes such as equities, bonds, and commodities. I developped a strategy (optimized) and I include it in the financial portfolio. I want to ...
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### FX Counterparty Risk Modeling

We are building PFE model for FX derivatives including but not limited to outright and barrier options. For counterparty risk purpose, we are assessing whether black karasinski would be good for fx ...
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### Determining Monthly Premium with Credit default swap

I hold a 10 year, \$100 million bond. In order to minimize risk, I enter into a credit default swap in which I am paid every time (monthly) the bond rating drops to a new low. I have the probabilities ...
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### Simulating stock price with Monte Carlo under uncertainity

I'm trying to perform Monte Carlo simulation in order to check to what extent target price derived from Discounted Cash Flow(DCF) model may be influenced by changes in variables which are: EUR ...
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### Correlate the G2++ with a GBM model

In Matlab one can use the LinearGaussian2F function together with the simTermStructs function to create a simulated zero curve based on the G2++ model. Next to simulating the interest rates I need to ...
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### Monte Carlo - Inflated Asset Paths Due to Correlation

I built a MC generator for 12 assets based on Brownian Motion and noticed some strange results. Formula Used S(t) = Exp(S(t-1) + (mean - (vol. / 2)) + (stdev * Normal Distribution #)) S(0) = Ln(1) ...
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### SAS code for Brownian Motion

I want to simulate call options using monte carlo algorithm. I am a noob SAS user but i know that i need to: -simulate random stock prices with no dividend in respect to different parameters(...
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### Selling two uncorrelated OTM options lowers the over all probability of profit?

I am trying to simulate shorting two uncorrelated put options, I wrote a python program and used monte carlo method to simulate the PnL on expiration: gist It seems the probability of profit is ...
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### Number of simulations for Monte Carlo CVA

Assuming we are calculating CVA across a netting set with a Monte Carlo methodology: 1) How many future dates ("horizons") would be typical - or does that depend entirely upon the composition of the ...