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18
votes
2answers
1k views

Statistical properties of stochastic processes for moving average trading to work

Common wisdom holds it that a moving average approach is more successful than buy-and-hold. There is quantitative evidence for that across different asset classes (see e.g. this book, or this paper ...
15
votes
2answers
2k views

How to update an exponential moving average with missing values?

Say you have an Exponential Moving Average being continuously updated over a time series using 1-second-long time periods. What should happen if there is no value for the next second, e.g. there were ...
9
votes
5answers
999 views

Trading a stock (or other asset) based on Bollinger Bands.

One way investors analyze stocks is on a technical basis. Looking at Bollinger Banks (20 day moving average +- 2 standard deviations) is one of the most popular technical tools. Some stocks trade ...
4
votes
1answer
70 views

Why the diff of signal is called positions and what does it mean in backtesting?

I'm trying to learn Backtesting 101. I found this example which is very simple but I do not quite understand some of the terms. I understand Moving Average algorithm which is to measure trends or to ...
4
votes
1answer
373 views

How to optimize return in a moving average crossover algorithm

Moving average crossover strategy is a widely used strategy in algo trading. Is there a way to optimize return in a moving average crossover stratergy. I have used this site to backtest MA crossover ...
4
votes
1answer
76 views

compute technical indicators from candle data

i have a rookie question but can't find the answer anywhere so..what is the right way to compute a simple moving average when you have an array of (open,close,low,high) tuples ? From what i saw so ...
3
votes
1answer
95 views

How to get the the final % return in backtesting?

I'm learning how to do backtesting in Python using Pandas. I'm learning how to use Moving Average Crossover. I've generated signals to buy or to sell already. But I'm not sure where to go from there? ...
3
votes
4answers
489 views

Unsmoothing of returns

The following problem arises in the context of private equity, which typically report "smoothed" returns (think of it as a moving average). As you can imagine, "smoothed" returns would have a much ...
3
votes
1answer
281 views

How to use volatility to assess the accuracy of a stock market model?

Background: For a dissertation I have a multi-agent stock market model that I am using to assess different mechanisms for producing particular dynamic regimes. A key point is assessing how closely it ...
3
votes
1answer
341 views

How to adapt a Moving Average period to market conditions?

I would like to know if there is some way to adapt the period of a moving average to market conditions like for instance the stop loss can be adapted to market conditions using the average true range. ...
2
votes
1answer
518 views

Aren't Technical Indicators calculated on Adjusted Close Price?

I would assume that day to day movement in stock can be accurately compared with the Adjusted Close Price and not simply the Close Price, taking into account Stock Splits Dividends etc. http://www....
2
votes
2answers
2k views

Calculating Bollinger Band Correctly

My bollinger band comes out like the below, which doesn't seem right. Any idea what is wrong with my code for calculating upper and lower bollinber bands? I obtained my data from here ...
2
votes
1answer
849 views

How to fully replicate ADX + DI Indicators in Excel? [closed]

For black box testing, I was hoping that I could replicate the ADX + DI+ and DI- indicators that are provided in trading platforms such as ThinkOrSwim, ScottradeElite etc. However, I noticed that ...
2
votes
1answer
87 views

Simple Moving Average Backtest: Cumulative Return too high

I apologize if this is way too basic a question, but I'm an absolute beginner to trading and am in the process of learning the fundamentals. Currently I'm trying to model a (10-day) SMA backtest in ...
2
votes
0answers
108 views

Can you tell me what this RBloomberg formula means?

I've been asked to re-create a spreadsheet that used RBloomberg using a different data source. But I'm having trouble figuring out exactly what one of the spreadsheet's formulas does. Can anyone tell ...
1
vote
3answers
172 views

Technical Indicators reference

I have been looking for a good reference where I can find how technical indicators of stock market analysis are calculated. I have a dataset (time series) which I want to extract these indicators to ...
1
vote
1answer
41 views

How do I automatically graph S&P PE ratio moving average VS DOW

Obviously this is a rookie question, I'm simply looking to plot the S&P PE ratio moving averages over different periods of time and plot them vs the DOW. Ideally I would love like something that ...
0
votes
1answer
142 views

Online algorithm for selecting smoothing parameter?

In Online Algorithms in High-frequency Trading the authors demonstrate online, exponentially-weighted algorithms for mean, variance, and linear regression. The authors estimate their smoothing ...
0
votes
1answer
41 views

Moving Averages Crossover question

I'm reading on Investopedia that one should buy a stock if short term moving average is ABOVE the long term moving average, since this "indicates an upward trend". However, this is not intuitive to ...
0
votes
1answer
70 views

How to weigh many factors using a SMA/EMA

I'm learning about the SMA/EMA technical analysis, as well as, indicators such as Bollinger Bands, Stochastic Oscillators, MACD, etc. How do you know which one to use and which to weigh more over ...
0
votes
0answers
57 views

How to use genetic algorithms to optimize moving averages

I'm working on a school project that attempts to optimize moving averages using genetic algorithms. From what I understand about moving averages, it is an average over a certain length of time. To ...
-2
votes
1answer
431 views

How to test the efficiency of Exponential Moving Averages as a trading startegy? [closed]

I would like to know how I can test the efficiency of Exponential Moving Averages when it comes to forex trading. Can i have any papers that point to the efficiency of this strategy? Thank you. :)
-6
votes
1answer
1k views

When people say calculate moving average for 30 days include weekends or not? [closed]

This is blowing my mind a little bit, when someone wants to calculate a 30-day moving average of a commodity, do they mean 30 business days, or 30 calendar days? I'm looking for the general consensus,...