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5
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0answers
808 views

Tools/R code for predicting Dragon-Kings

The theory of the so called Dragon-Kings, esp. by Didier Sornette (ETH Zürich), basically states that financial crises and crashes are predictable (contrary to the theory of black swans). The ...
4
votes
0answers
474 views

Algorithms for predicting a couple points in the future

I'm familiar with supervised learning algorithms like regression and neural networks which look at a bunch of input points and learn a function which outputs a value (the value varying depending on ...
2
votes
0answers
147 views

Good criteria to sort state-space $\beta_{t}$ according to Kalman filter output

Let the usual state-space linear model (without constant term for the sake of simplicity): $y_{t}=\beta_{t} X_{t}+\epsilon_{t}$ If we use Gaussian Kalman filter to estimate $\beta_{t}$ we get ...
1
vote
0answers
65 views

How to choose a window for curve fitting and prediction?

I am using Pareto distribution to fit a serie of survival rates (with least square). My ultimate goal is to use this fitting curve for prediction. Thus I would mainly focus on the tail of the ...
1
vote
0answers
460 views

Oscillatory time-series forecasting

I was wondering if this mean(160)-reverting/oscillatory time series "SUM" can be considered chaotic & forecastable to some extend short-term? ...
0
votes
0answers
65 views

How to display stock prediction results?

I'm not sure if this is a question for "Quantitative Finance" or "Personal Finance & Money" so forgive me if this one is irrelevant for this site. The Situation So I wrote a program (in vb.net ...
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votes
0answers
29 views

Obtaining historical data of individual level predictions from prediction markets

I have been searching the internet but was unable to find data of the following form: prediction of events for which we already know the outcome (i.e. markets that have already closed) data for each ...