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0
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1answer
880 views

what is the best way to calculate the probability of an equity option ending in the money?

Given historical implied volatility and all other know variables (stock price, option strike price, option expiration date, dividend rate, interest rate) what is the best way to calculate the ...
8
votes
1answer
2k views

How to estimate probability of default from bond prices?

How do you use bond prices/yields to infer probabilities of default? I would think of it as follows: Create a relationship between default free (e.g., Germany) and defaultable (e.g., Greece) bond ...
13
votes
2answers
654 views

How do you distinguish “significant” moves from noise?

How do you distinguish between losses that are within the normal range for day-to-day shifts and situations with a real potential for loss? The specific application I have in mind is pattern ...
8
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2answers
1k views

What are some examples of Compound Poisson processes in insurance?

I'm writing the Bachelor thesis but I need some information. I need to find some practical examples and applications of the Compound Poisson Process in insurance. Does anyone have any good examples?
7
votes
1answer
376 views

Do people use unbounded interest rate models, and what alternatives exist?

A simple interest rate model in discrete time is the autoregressive model, $$ I_{n+1} = \alpha I_n+w_n $$ where $\alpha\in [0,1)$ and $w_n\geq 0$ are i.i.d. random variables. When working with ruin ...
9
votes
1answer
404 views

Fixed income modeling

I am currently working on my research paper and trying to explain a two-dimensional variable: volume and instrument of corporate debt financing. Independent variables that I believe must be included ...
8
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4answers
1k views

How do I estimate the joint probability of stock B moving, if stock A moves?

I have two stocks, A and B, that are correlated in some way. If I know (hypothetically) that stock A has a 60% chance of rising tomorrow, and I know the joint probability between stocks A and B, how ...
7
votes
1answer
608 views

If stock A has a 60% chance of rising, and stocks A and B have 80% correlation, what is the chance of stock B rising?

As in the subject, I'm interested in a math puzzle of sorts: If stock A has a 60% chance of rising, and stocks A and B have an 80% correlation, what is the chance of stock B rising? Would it be ...
3
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2answers
759 views

Risk neutral probability in binomial lattice option coming greater than 1…what's wrong?

I am substituting reasonable values in the below fomula (like r=0.12, T=20, nColumn=16, sigma=0.004)...why is probability coming out to be greater than 1? Any help? Thanks! ...
4
votes
2answers
646 views

Heuristics for calculating theoretical probabilities of being ITM at time T for listed options

I'm looking for a heuristic way to calculate the probabilities of being in the money at expiry for non-defined risk options combinations (listed options). I use delta as a proxy for this probability ...
22
votes
5answers
2k views

Random matrix theory (RMT) in finance

The new kid on the block in finance seems to be random matrix theory. Although RMT as a theory is not so new (about 50 years) and was first used in quantum mechanics it being used in finance is a ...
11
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2answers
3k views

How does left tail risk differ from right tail risk?

How does left tail risk differ from right tail risk? In what context would an analyst use these metrics?
3
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2answers
568 views

on “recovering probability distributions from option prices” - how to subtract influence of stochastic volatility?

This is based on a 1995 paper by Rubinstein/Jackwerth by the above title where the authors produces a distribution of stock prices inferred from option prices. But their approach only produces a joint ...
1
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3answers
1k views

Probability - Generating fair outcome using unfair coin

I have been thinking a lot about the following puzzle. But, could not arrive at a solution. Can someone explain me how can you get a fair (equal probability) outcome using only an unfair coin (where ...
14
votes
5answers
1k views

How to estimate the probability of drawdown / ruin?

A fairly naive approach to estimate the probability of drawdown / ruin is to calculate the probabilities of all the permutations of your sample returns, keeping track of those that hit your drawdown / ...
14
votes
8answers
4k views

Probability of touching

For a vanilla option, I know that the probability of the option expiring in the money is simply the delta of the option... but how would I calculate the probability, without doing monte carlo, of the ...
17
votes
2answers
651 views

How are distributions for tail risk measures estimated in practice?

Let's say you want to calculate a VaR for a portfolio of 1000 stocks. You're really only interested in the left tail, so do you use the whole set of returns to estimate mean, variance, skew, and shape ...
31
votes
5answers
2k views

Lévy alpha-stable distribution and modelling of stock prices.

Since Mandelbrot, Fama and others have performed seminal work on the topic, it has been suspected that stock price fluctuations can be more appropriately modeled using Lévy alpha-stable distrbutions ...
24
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2answers
4k views

How useful is Markov chain Monte Carlo for quantitative finance?

Naively, it seems that Bayesian modeling, structural models particularly, would be quite useful in finance because of their ability to incorporate market idiosyncrasies and produce accurate ...