Quantitative trading strategies use quantitative signals and a set of predefined systematic rules to make trading decisions. Strategies operate within parameters based on historical analysis (backtesting) and real world market studies (forward testing). Strategies may be executed manually (by a ...

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7
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3answers
600 views

Why is random trading minus transaction costs not zero expected value?

Somebody was telling me that if you buy randomly and assuming no transaction costs in todays market place, you wont make money 50% of the time and lose 50% of the time because of adverse selection. Im ...
4
votes
2answers
731 views

Cointegration trading: Ignoring pairs that aren't economically related

Cointegration trading question What's the state of the art when it comes to choosing proper subsets of stocks/assets where cointegrating relationships aren't ignored as (likely to be) spurious? For ...
2
votes
1answer
535 views

Using alpha to evaluate trading strategy

I have a trading strategy that generates returns $R_{t}$. I want to test the strategy by looking at the alpha: $R_t - R_{f,t} = \alpha + \beta (R_{m,t} - R_{f,t}) + e_t$ I compare my alpha against ...
5
votes
1answer
665 views

Statistical significance of trading systems that use indicators with long lookbacks

Let's say we have a trading system that trades daily, holding for one day, but uses an indicator that looks back over the last 5 years. A simple example could be the percent change in price of an ...
1
vote
0answers
78 views

How to trade risk-adjusted returns?

Why does dividing daily returns by daily range eliminates fat tails and results in an (almost) gaussian distribution? And how could that distribution be exploited to enter trades?
1
vote
1answer
214 views

normalized accumulation distribution

I am looking for a way to take an accumulation/distribution indicator and normalize it so I can compare a bunch of stocks with stock prices that have no relationship with each other. EDIT: This ...
1
vote
2answers
542 views

Evaluating forecasting algorithm

I am trying to evaluate a forecasting algorithm for stock price prediction. However, the performance of the algorithm may be very much tied to the trading strategy. Is there a systematic way for ...
1
vote
3answers
2k views

Appropriate method for calculating negative returns on a trading strategy?

I have a cumulative profit/loss time series below for a trading strategy, what is the appropriate way to calculate the returns in percentage for such a series? My issue is the appropriate ...
3
votes
3answers
1k views

How much capital do I need to create a competitive automated trading strategy?

I'm a relatively small investor, and I'm interested in building my own fully-automated quantitative trading strategy. I also read about dark pools, and how difficult it is to get good prices on ...
0
votes
0answers
40 views

Inferring Returns From Minimal Data Points [duplicate]

Possible Duplicate: How much data is needed to validate a short-horizon trading strategy? Suppose I have daily returns for a trading strategy against one month of data. Before starting ...
10
votes
1answer
388 views

How does one measure the effect of latency on potential returns?

I am looking to evaluate the hypothetical advantage one trading system has over another in terms of the possible returns given their latency. Irene Aldridge wrote a piece (How Profitable Are ...
5
votes
4answers
2k views

How should I include the bid-ask spread as a transaction cost in a backtest?

I have two backtesting algorithms: One that uses bid and ask prices for signal generation. For example: Buy when $ask < threshold_1 $ and sell when $bid > threshold_2$. Bid and ask prices are ...
-3
votes
1answer
450 views

Trading Strategies and Portfolio Constructions based on Cross Sectional Regression? [closed]

I often see trading strategies and portfolio construction that are based on cross-sectional regression. For example, I often see regressing some numbers against some factors. I was wondering how ...
-4
votes
1answer
561 views

How to calculate the weight of the stocks using the linear regression?

I do a simple example with the follow three series(stocks prices): ...
1
vote
0answers
543 views

Using volatility cycles to switch between trend following & range bound trading? [closed]

"...a low volatility environment is usually a good environment for trend following strategies; see Jez Liberty’s state of trend following report here..." ...
5
votes
2answers
1k views

How are momentum and reversion long/short strategies dynamically combined in trading?

I'm trying to understand how to combine two strategies dynamically in trading: one mean-reversion and the other momentum. One way (also the simplest one) of doing this is by scaling/normalizing ...
3
votes
2answers
491 views

Distribution for High Kurtosis

Can you please advise which distribution to follow when your skewness is 0.28 and Kurtosis value is 51. Since it's leptokurtic and positively skewed I would like to fit distribution and also wanted to ...
-1
votes
1answer
1k views

Can end-to-day trading be profitable? If not, why? [closed]

Many academics argue that end-to-day trading, where you go long or short before opening and sell your security at the end of the day, is not profitable. Various explanations are given for this ...
12
votes
2answers
2k views

statistical arbitrage option overlay strategies / volatility trading

Here's an interesting trading puzzle that I would love to get the community's input on. Let's say there exists an alpha signal that does a good job of sorting equities expected excess returns over ...
3
votes
3answers
540 views

portfolio diversification tester

Are there any online tools (optionally with developer API, to spare me the scraping) that given an existing portfolio, calculate how well a new candidate position would score to increase combined ...
10
votes
3answers
728 views

What is the expected return I should use for the momentum strategy in MV optimization framework?

As all research on the momentum strategies are focused on the indicator, i.e. the entry point, there seems not much discussion on its expected return? Though there are some discussions on the exit ...
7
votes
5answers
1k views

Is Visual Basic a fast enough for millisecond orders

I have an API that for an order routing platform that is in visual basic. The maximum frequency or orders to exchanges will be milliseconds, where the underlying systems are expected to be able to ...
14
votes
2answers
1k views

From a high frequency point of view, with a price prediction and assuming infinite leverage, how do you determine optimal trade size?

I have read about something like Kelly criterion for long term expectation maximization assuming a fixed starting bankroll. But if one can assume unlimited leverage, and one has a signal for a price ...
9
votes
1answer
871 views

How to use macroeconomic indicators for long/short trading strategies?

I am trying to understand how to use macroeconomic data in my trading. I understand that using such data could be used to gauge an overall view of the market and how it's doing as a whole. I have been ...
19
votes
1answer
2k views

How do different methods and techniques used in pairs trading compare?

I was going through the paper of Avellaneda (2008) on stat arb and I found it interesting that he uses asset returns vs. their respective ETFs to compute the s-score. I am wondering if anyone has ...
7
votes
2answers
631 views

What quantitative strategies were successful through the 2008 crisis?

Obviously, strategies like "short everything" did well during this period, but getting the future right is one thing and having a robust strategy is another. In particular, many quantitative ...
5
votes
1answer
883 views

Can momentum strategies be quantitative in nature?

I have read some papers on quantitative trading strategies and it seems like strategies that focus on mean reversion or statistical arbitrage give signals that are dependent on some quantitative ...
6
votes
4answers
935 views

How to properly evaluate backtest returns?

Do you evaluate a strategy in a backtest based on the cumulative returns generated by the strategy (i.e. looking at the cumulative returns of the trades that occur) or do you start with a certain ...
8
votes
1answer
1k views

How to apply the Kelly criterion when expected return may be negative?

My concern is how to handle a negative value for the Kelly formula. Even when you have a system that has positive expectancy, you can (and usually will) sustain a number of losses, sometimes ...
4
votes
3answers
2k views

How to compute the alpha decay of a strategy?

How can one compute the alpha decay of a systematic trading strategy?
11
votes
3answers
3k views

How to combine multiple trading algorithms?

Is it possible to combine different algorithms so as to improve trading performance? In particular, I have read that social media sentiment tracking, digital signal processing and neural networks all ...
15
votes
6answers
2k views

Can social media be applied to algorithmic trading?

Can social media sites, like Twitter, be used to analyze financial markets for algorithmic trading? How much research has been done on this topic?
16
votes
4answers
2k views

Evaluating automated trading strategies: accepted practice

Both for private projects, and for clients, I've been working on code a lot this year to evaluate automated trading strategies. This often ends up turning into the task of how to fairly compare apples ...
7
votes
2answers
5k views

What is a medium to low frequency trading strategy and why is it less hyped?

The term high frequency trading has been used quite often recently to refer to trading using real-time tick data (or data aggregated to few seconds) and having an intra-day holding period. How are ...
11
votes
5answers
1k views

How to optimally allocate capital among trading strategies?

I'm trying to find an optimal way to allocate capital among trading strategies. "Quantitative Trading" by Ernie Chan claims on page 97 that the optimal fraction of capital to allocate to a given ...
8
votes
1answer
1k views

What is the average Sharpe ratio of volatility arbitrage funds?

Where can I get data on performance metrics for volatility arbitrage funds? I am trying to compare the Sharpe ratio of my strategy to those of the major players.
8
votes
2answers
552 views

What is a reasonable upper bound on the performance of a daily trading strategy?

I am backtesting an equity trading strategy which trades only once per day. Is there a general rule of thumb for the reasonable upper bound on the rate of return of such a strategy? For example, a ...
11
votes
2answers
1k views

How to build a regime-switching model which knows its own limits?

In recent months I've come to the conclusion that there are not only certain regimes in the markets (like bear or bull) but phases where all models fail because we are in uncharted territory. The ...
6
votes
1answer
458 views

Are shorter holding period strategies better?

Consider two statistically identical strategies (identical information ratios, sample size, ratio of transaction costs to total profit, etc.) except that one has a much shorter average holding period. ...
20
votes
2answers
2k views

How much data is needed to validate a short-horizon trading strategy?

Suppose one has an idea for a short-horizon trading strategy, which we will define as having an average holding period of under 1 week and a required latency between signal calculation and execution ...
12
votes
3answers
3k views

Techniques to optimize the placement of orders in market making strategy?

Market making often requires placing and canceling a lot of orders. You have to buy and sell nearly simultaneously, so you need to move orders pretty often to beat other traders. But I would like to ...
8
votes
1answer
852 views

What is the Sugihara Trading System?

I recently heard the term Sugihara Trading System. I guess it might be some trading strategy or a special model to predict trends in market data, but I couldn't find out anything about it. Does anyone ...
12
votes
4answers
1k views

HFT: What is the big differentiator in comparison to other time scales?

High Frequency Trading (HFT) seems to be the big money making mystery machine these days. The purported source of unlimited floods of gelt pouring into the investment shops using it. For me, HFT is ...
12
votes
5answers
3k views

Proof that you cannot beat a random walk

There is much speculation to what degree financial series are random (and what kind of randomness prevails). I want to turn the question on its head and ask: Is there a mathematical proof that ...
5
votes
5answers
2k views

How many explanatory variables is too many?

When researching any sort of predictive model, whether using ordinary linear regression or more sophisticated methods such as neural networks or classification and regression trees, there seems to ...
13
votes
3answers
3k views

What are the best sources for equity quantitative research?

What are the best sources of quantitative finance research in equities? I will list a couple and note an asterisk if the research is available by request (i.e. non-clients) or online: BAC-Merrill ...
6
votes
5answers
670 views

Indicators and research for stress-based investment strategies

In reference to this paper: Can risk aversion indicators anticipate financial crises? and the investable UBS Risk Adjusted Dynamic Alpha Strategy: ...
0
votes
1answer
208 views

What would be the impact of the US Credit Rating downgrade on Crude Oil Prices? [closed]

From a modeling point of view, here are my primary assumptions for Monday: a) I would expect the US$ to depreciate and crude oil to rise in the long term. b) Expect crude oil to dip in the short run ...
9
votes
2answers
2k views

How can I learn about the quantitative aspects of market making in illiquid single stock options?

I would like to learn more about the possible ways of doing quantitative research regarding option market making. In particular, while the mainstream index option market may be very liquid, the ...
9
votes
3answers
2k views

What is the ideal ratio of in-sample length to out-of-sample length?

Suppose you are running a portfolio of quantitative strategies and that you develop a new potential strategy to be added to the mix. Assume for simplicity that the new strategy is independent of the ...